Breaking It Down: The Hump For Josh Allen
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Since leading the Buffalo Bills to the NFL playoffs in the 2019-2020 season in his second season, Josh Allen has quickly become one of the top elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Allen is regularly in the NFL MVP conversation, and his talent and strength really separate him from most quarterbacks. The leadership of Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott have elevated the Bills into the Super Bowl contender conversation every season. Despite all of this, Allen still has a lot to overcome.
Comparing Allen to other young star Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes has proven that he is levels above the rest of the NFL’s QBs, with his accomplishments and playmaking ability. While Allen has multiple head-to-head regular-season victories over Mahomes, the 3-time Super Bowl MVP has a dominant 3-0 record over him in the playoffs. Allen performed well enough in two of those games, particularly 2021-22’s overtime heartbreak at Arrowhead Stadium in the Divisional Round, yet the deal was just never closed.
Joe Burrow, who entered the league two years after Allen, led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl in his first healthy season as a starter, coming off of an ACL tear. Burrow did this with a horrific offensive line, and before the season the Bengals were not looked at as contenders like the Bills have been pre-season for years. When the two went head-to-head in the 2022-23 postseason, things seemed to be lined up in Allen’s favor. Not only were the Bills playing at home, but the snowy and cold conditions were what they were used to. Instead, Burrow and the Bengals ran circles around the Bills in Buffalo in a 27-10 blowout.
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Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has underperformed in the NFL postseason for the most part, but he still has two NFL MVPs under his name and has led the Ravens to the league’s number-one record on both occasions (2019-2020 and 2023-2024). An MVP and number-one seed are both attainments Allen has yet to capture, and Jackson has already accomplished both twice.
Looking at younger QBs, Jalen Hurts has led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl, and despite the loss, Hurts had one of the greatest Super Bowl performances in history - many even arguing he outplayed Super Bowl LVII MVP Patrick Mahomes. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert have both made the playoffs, but their teams have never had super high expectations (the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively). Then there is Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud, whose historic rookie season has made him one of the hotter names in the league.
SHooting yourself in the foot
In a season where Lamar Jackson won NFL MVP with less than 30 touchdowns, some felt Allen deserved more consideration for the award, but that argument is borderline invalid. While Buffalo clicked towards the end of the season and rode their momentum to another AFC East crown, the struggles for the first half of the season were very much visible. Allen himself played well enough for his team in the second half of the season, but the fact that he led the league in interceptions this year should have been enough to disqualify him, despite the impressive numbers he had in other categories.
Allen also has an alarming 0-6 record in overtime in his NFL career. Right off the bat, 2021’s overtime regular season loss to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2023’s regular-season defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles are two examples that saw Allen fail to close the deal after possessing the ball first. Allen has delivered for Buffalo on many occasions, but his winless overtime record is something that simply cannot be ignored.
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The State of the Buffalo Bills
When such a complete team on paper seems to have the same disappointing result every year, drama is inevitable. It is no secret that star wideout Stefon Diggs has had his share of frustration with the Bills, and many questions about his status with the team loom. Diggs underperformed for the majority of his 2023 in-season return, and Buffalo has to think if they are still willing to keep him for the 27 million dollars he makes from the team. His underutilization at times was justified by his lack of production compared to seasons prior, but not getting more involved certainly adds to the tension. Then there is pending free agent Gabe Davis, who looks like he is ready to move on from Buffalo.
With other rising quarterbacks seemingly achieve feats that Josh Allen has yet to, along with the uncertain status of key players in Buffalo, Josh Allen must seperate the upcoming NFL season from the rest in his career.
