Two Straight Years of Trading the First Overall Pick
Glendale, Arizona (PSF) - The Arizona Cardinals are the frontrunners to get the first overall pick of the 2024 Draft. They have the consensus worst roster in the NFL, and their three star players; Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Budda Baker are injured, released, and publicly in trade talks. These factors affecting their roster will lead to what most say is a horrible year in the desert, some pundits even predicting the Cardinals to be the first ever 0-17 team in NFL history.
I have to agree that the Cardinals will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for the 2023-24 season, and that they will land the #1 overall pick, but the organization is going into this season knowing that much. They know that this is a younger roster that is right at the very beginning of a rebuild, and that their lack of success should not be a big worry. The development of the young players they have should be the priority for this year, and then their secondary focus should be the 2024 NFL Draft.
Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams is being hailed by many as the first overall pick for next year’s draft, and the perfect quarterback to supplement the Cardinals’ needs at this point in the rebuild. However, the Cardinals have hitched their wagon to Kyler Murray with a contract signed last offseason. Barring a trade, he will be in Arizona long term, and given the roster’s flaws, the team is built around him. So, the Cardinals are left with two options. Let’s examine both:
Commit to the rebuild, trade Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray, when healthy, is a capable passing quarterback with extreme physical talent. He was picked first overall out of Oklahoma in 2019 for a reason, he is a fantastic prospect who has proved his talents on the field. There are many teams that would come asking for Murray if given the chance. For a hypothetical, we’ll name the New York Giants as the landing spot for Kyler. After a difficult year of Saquon Barkley holding out and Daniel Jones regressing due to this, the Giants release Jones and hope to find an upgrade either on the market or through the draft. Seeing Kyler Murray is on the market, the Cardinals and Giants agree to a trade:
Cardinals receive a 2024 third round pick, 2025 conditional second-round pick (opportunity to turn into a first if Murray reaches certain stat milestones in return season)
Giants receive Kyler Murray, 2024 sixth round pick
This trade compensates for the fact that Murray will likely be coming off of a full year away from football rehabbing his injury, while still giving the Cardinals a fair compensation for their star quarterback. After this trade, they take Caleb Williams first overall and commence a rebuild.
2. Trade down from first overall, stick with Kyler Murray
The Cardinals in this scenario decide to stick with Kyler Murray, and will look for a suitor to take the first overall pick off of their hands. This pick comes with the opportunity for a team to take generational quarterback Caleb Williams. Contenders to trade for this pick will likely be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, and Washington Commanders. In the end, the Cardinals don’t want to trade the pick that amounts to Caleb Williams into their own conference, so the Titans win the sweepstakes.
Cardinals receive: Titans 2024 first, third, and fifth round picks, 2025 first and second round picks, WR Treylon Burks
Titans receive: The first overall pick, Cardinals 2024 fifth round pick
The Cardinals are able to get two first round picks, a young weapon, and another haul of draft capital in the trade of Caleb Williams, allowing themselves to set up nicely to make trades and draft players to fill their many, many needs.
At this point, it’s unclear which of these scenarios is more likely, but something is going to give between the Cardinals, Kyler Murray, and the first overall pick come the 2024 Draft. We shall see.
