5 Things That Need to Happen for the Atlanta Falcons to Win the NFC South
Atlanta, Georgia (PSF) - The Falcons have not made the playoffs since 2017. During their five-year playoff drought, they have not been over .500 at any point. From 2018-20, the team suffered due to bad drafting, bad contracts, and baffling coaching decisions that led to the team losing games in excruciating fashion. Consequently, Head Coach Dan Quinn and longtime General Manager Thomas Dimitroff, who oversaw the most successful era in franchise history, were fired after the team’s 0-5 start to the 2020 campaign. In January of 2021, owner Arthur Blank hired Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot with hopes of them making the team a contender again. In just two years at the helm, Smith and Fontenot have overachieved, despite the team’s 14-20 record the past two seasons. The team remained relatively competitive, despite being cap-strapped, making it difficult for them to trade for or sign quality players. However, there is a growing sense of optimism that the tandem can lead the Falcons to not only their first playoff birth since 2017, but also this first division title since 2016, allowing them to host an NFL postseason game inside the soon to be seven-year-old Mercedes Benz Stadium for the first time in its history. However, there are five things that need to happen for the Falcons to win the NFC South.
The promising 2022 draft class must continue to take strides
In 2022, the Atlanta Falcons had arguably their best draft since the 2016 Super Bowl campaign. In the first round, the team drafted USC wide receiver Drake London eighth overall to address a depleted WR core, after it was the team’s strongest point for a decade. London completed his rookie campaign with 866 yards, 72 catches, and four touchdowns, but struggled at times with ball security. Outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie, the team’s second round pick out of Penn State, showed plenty of upside, despite finishing with just two and a half sacks and 30 tackles. Running back Tyler Allgeier, the team’s fifth round pick out of BYU, rushed for 1,000 yards and broke the franchise rookie rushing record. It is expected that Allgeier will take a step back with the addition of Texas RB Bijan Robinson, but nonetheless, he will play a large role in the offense. Inside line backer Troy Anderson, the team’s other second round pick from Montana State, is likely to start alongside Kaden Ellis. Anderson and ILB Deangelo Malone, like Ebiketie, is expected to take strides in year two. If London improves his ball security and players such as Anderson Ebiketie, and Malone can continue to grow and positively contribute to an improved defense, and Allgeier continues to produce on the ground, despite Robison’s addition, the Falcons will be a tough team to beat, week in and week out, in 2023.
The offense must improve in the redzone
Since the team’s prolific offense in 2016, where they finished eigth in redzone touchdown percentage (64.5%), they have only finished in the top 10 in that category just once (10th in 2018 at 64%). In 2022, the Falcons finished 14th with a 55.56 TD % in the redzone, an improvement from 2021, where they finished 24th. The improvement can be largely attributed the the team’s third ranked rushing offense. However, if the Falcons wish to find themselves playing football in January again, their redzone touchdown percentage will have to continue to improve, and it should with the upgrades they have made offensively this past offseason.
Get to the quarterback
The Falcons have finished no better than 20th in the league in sacks eight times over the past decade since the departure of former ILB John Abraham in 2013. They have drafted defensive ends and outside linebackers in the first round (Jamaal Anderson, Vic Beasley, Takk Mckinnley) and attempted to add to their front seven via free agency (Osi Umenyiora, Ray Edwards, Paul Soliai, and Dante Fowler). Nothing has seemed to work. The inability to get to the opposing QB has largely contributed to not only the team’s seven bottom half finishes in team defense over the last decade, but also the team’s eight losing seasons over the last decade. The Falcons had the second most cap space in the NFL and spent a large amount of it on providing help up front for All-Pro defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. The team added OLB Bud Dupree and resigned Lorenzo Carter. They also added veteran DT Calais Campbell and former Saint David Onyemata. As mentioned earlier, Arnold Ebiketie is expected to take a step forward in year two. Ryan Neilson, former New Orleans Saints Defensive Line Coach, was hired as the team’s new Defensive Coordinator to replace the retired Dean Pees. Smith and Fontenot hope these additions, along with current player development, can finally result in a disruptive pass rush for the Falcons.
Desmond Ridder needs to make the most of his opportunity.
In the four games in which Ridder started last season, he showed signs of potential (2 TDs, 708 yds, and a 86.4 passer rating). The team decided to stick with Ridder as the starting quarterback for 2023, instead of pursuing former league MVP Lamar Jackson, like many had anticipated. The decision to instill faith in the third round pick drew staunch criticism from NFL fans and the media. Even Falcons fans felt uneasy about the decision. Year three will be a crucial year for both Smith and Fontenot. The team is out of “cap Hell” and a majority of the team’s anticipated starters have been acquired by this Head Coach and GM. They could have easily pursued Lamar. They also could have easily done what the Carolina Panthers did and traded up for their franchise quarterback. The fact that they refused to do either of those and stuck with Ridder instead in such a crucial year illustrates the confidence they have in Ridder to help lead the team to wins. Ridder, in response, will have to prove their decision right.
Bijan Robinson needs to be worth the hype
The Falcons’ decision to draft Bijan Robinson eigth overall drew the ire of many Falcons fans, who wanted the team to draft defensive tackle Jalen Carter out of the University of Georgia or cornerback Christian Gonzalez from the University of Oregon. Additionally, the fact that the Falcons had just had a rookie rush for 1,000 yards made most Falcons fans feel that the team had already found their RB1. The idea of drafting a running back early in the first round is viewed as widely unpopular and unideal in today’s NFL, given the short primes running backs have due to the wear and tear the position has on the body along with the fact that NFL offenses have shift more towards heavily favoring the passing game over the last decade. As a Falcons fan, I will admit that I was not happy with the pick at the time. However, similar to backs like Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, Robinson is a dual threat back. Not only can you line him up in the backfield like any other RB, but you can also line him up in the slot and have him contribute in the air, giving smith the luxury of Smith and Offensive Coordinator Dave Ragone, having him and Allgeier on the the field at the same time, leaving defensive coordinators on their toes week in and week out. Additionally, since the departure of Julio Jones, then Falcons have lacked an “explosive” player offensively. Robinson is that type of player. More importantly, it allows Allgeier and 32 year old hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson to reduce the “wear and tear” on the bodies and prolong their careers. Both will still have an instrumental role in the offense.
The outlook on the Atlanta Falcons has looked as bright as it has in years. The combination of young players with upside and proven veterans, along with a young coaching staff and front office with a high ceiling has provided excitement for a fanbase yearning for a winner. If the following things listed above happen, it is very likely that Mercedes Benz Stadium will be hosting NFL playoff games in January.