2021 NFC North Preview: Strength of Schedule and Projected Win Total
The NFL schedule makers were not kind to the NFC North this year. All four NFC North teams rank among the top-6 of toughest schedules heading into the 2021 season. Along with the six divisional games, the NFC North will play arguably the best two divisions in the NFL, the AFC North and NFC West. The Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings each have their own compelling storylines and goals heading into the 2021 season.
Chicago Bears
Strength of schedule: 3rd
Opponents 2020-win percentage: .550
The Chicago Bears, more specifically head coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace, are in a difficult situation. Only the Steelers and Ravens have a more difficult schedule than the Bears. With the third toughest schedule in the NFL, the Bears will be put to the test early and often. Beginning with the LA Rams in week one, the Bears will have a difficult stretch of games weeks 6-9, where they play the Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, and the Steelers before their week 10 bye. A larger concern for the Bears revolves around their rookie quarterback Justin Fields who will play second fiddle to starting quarterback Andy Dalton to begin the season even after a strong preseason. The pressure is on Andy Dalton to perform at a high level as well as head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised to see Bears fans call for Justin Fields after the first sign of struggle from Andy Dalton.
Justin Fields showing out in preseason
Prediction
Predicting the Bears total wins for the 2021 season was the most difficult out of all four NFC North teams. When comparing Dalton and Fields, their quarterback play could not be more different. With his ability to escape the pocket and prolong a play, this offense will look completely different if/when Justin Fields is in at quarterback. The Bears also come equipped with star receiver Allen Robinson II and second year wideout Darnell Mooney. Similar to Moodey, starting running back David Montgomery will look to continue last year’s strong finish into this season. Kalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith, and the rest of the Bears defense will be heavily relied upon to keep Chicago in games.
Along with the unknowingness of when Just Fields may start and the tough schedule that lies ahead for either quarterback, Projected win total: 6-11
Detroit Lions
Strength of schedule: T-6th
Opponents 2020-win percentage: .529
The Detroit Lions moved on from Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn this offseason after winning 13 games over the past 3 seasons and they are hoping new head coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holms can turn the franchise around and end the 29-year playoff victory drought. They will be inheriting a defense that ranked last in the NFL in both yards and points allowed in 2020. With additions to the defensive line in Michael Brockers, 2nd-round pick Levi Onwuzurike, and 3rd-round pick Alim McNeil, we expect the Lions defense to take a step forward this year (since the only place to go is up!). The offense will also look different this year since after 12-year signal caller Matthew Stafford was traded to the LA Rams for two 1st round draft picks (2022,2023) and a 3rd round pick (2021). With the departures of long-time quarterback Matthew Stafford and receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, the Detroit offense will head into week 1 with Jared Goff at starting quarterback and Tyrell Williams as their WR1. The Lions do, however, enter the 2021 season with a solid offensive line which consists of Second-team All-Pro center Frank Ragnow, tackle Taylor Decker, and highly touted 1st-round pick Penei Sewell.
T.J. Hockenson should see a career high in targets this year
Prediction
The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild which won’t accumulate too many wins. Having a skeptical defense go up against Aaron Rodgers, a solid Vikings team, and a potential Justin Fields-led Bears team twice a year, does not bode well for first-year coach Dan Campbell. With their first three weeks being against the 49ers, Packers, and Ravens, the Lions will be facing strong offenses yearly and often. This will put more pressure on the offense and will force Jared Goff to pass to a receiving corps that, without Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson would rank last in the NFL. Projected win total: 3-14
Green Bay Packers
Strength of schedule: 4th
Opponents 2020-win percentage: .542
Coming off his third MVP season, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers lost to the eventual Super Bowl LV champion Tampa Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game. Following a quiet yet compelling offseason by Aaron Rodgers, he has decided to put on the Green Bay uniform for at least one more Super Bowl run with the franchise. Many believe this may be Rodgers last season in Green Bay after a partial resolution was reached this offseason that will allow the future hall of famer to move on from the team following the 2021 season. With Aaron Rodgers under center for one more season, the Packers have a roster that is more than capable of making a deep playoff run. With superstar wideout Devante Adams, who led the league in receiving TDs (18), and running back Aaron Jones, who was 4th in rushing yards (1104), the Packers should have no problem putting points on the board. The offensive line will have to work together to fill the massive hole of First-team All Pro offensive tackle David Bakhtiari after he was put on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list after tearing his ACL in December of 2020. The Packers also have a strong defense that is anchored down by a pair of Second-team All Pro players in cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za’Darius Smith.
Could this be Aaron Rodgers “Last Dance”?
Prediction
The Packers are in a win-now situation with both Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams being unrestricted free agents after this year. You can make the case that the Packers have the best QB-RB-WR trio in the NFL. After making it to the NFC championship game last season, the Packers will see a good portion of their impact players returning on both sides of the field which should allow them to carry over their top-5 offense and top-10 defense into 2021 to contend for a Superbowl. Projected win total: 12-5
Minnesota Vikings
Strength of schedule: 5th
Opponents 2020-win percentage: .531
Coming off their first losing season since 2014, the Vikings are in line to compete for a division title or a wild card in 2021. The Vikings improved their offensive line which struggled last season by selecting Virginia Tech tackle Christian Darrisaw with the 23rd overall pick in the 2021 draft. The offensive line will work to create gaps for star running back Dalvin Cook who is coming off rushing for 1,557 yards (2nd in NFL), and scoring 17 touchdowns. Kirk Cousins will have the benefit of handing the ball off to a top-3 running back or throwing it to Justin Jefferson who broke the rookie record of most receiving yards (1,400) last season. Jefferson will be accompanied by TD machine Adam Thielen who caught the third-most TDs in the league last year (14). However, the offense will have to overcome the loss of TE Irv Smith Jr. who was declared out for the season due to a meniscus tear he suffered this preseason. The defense will also look to overcome last year's woes after they ranked 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. With injuries weighing heavily on the defensive performance last year, this Minnesota defense should take a massive step forward with returns of defensive end Danielle Hunter, defensive tackle Michael Pierce, and linebacker Eric Kendricks. Adding long-time Arizona Cardinal cornerback Patrick Peterson should also help the secondary giving this defense top-10 potential.
Dalvin Cook heading into the 2021 season after 2 straight 1,100 yard rushing seasons
Prediction
The Vikings should give the Green Bay Packers a run for their money when it comes to winning the division. Mike Zimmer’s defensive prowess should result in a healthy Vikings defense capable of shutting down opposing offenses. If the offensive line can show improvements and everyone stays healthy, the Vikings can contend with any team. If Minnesota were to have a strength of schedule outside the top-15, I could see them winning 12-13 games, however, with the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL, Projected win total: 10-7