Win/loss predictions for big 12
These are my predictions for the upcoming Big 12 football season. This will be the last season with only 10 teams since BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF will be joining the conference before the 2023 season, which also means that this will probably be the last season of the round-robin format.
The outlook for OU and Texas leaving for the SEC is unclear, with a contract running through the 2024 season and no buyout looking likely. This can also be difficult with some teams having no named starter at important positions such as Quarterback.
Baylor
UAlbany - Win
@ BYU - Loss
Texas State - Win
@ Iowa State - Win
Oklahoma State - Win
BYE
@ West Virginia - Win
Kansas - Win
@ Texas Tech - Win
@ Oklahoma - Loss
Kansas State - Win
TCU - Win
@ Texas - Win
Final Record: 10-2 (8-1)
Baylor will have the best regular season record, with their offensive and defensive lines being the difference. Blake Shapen gets the starting nod at QB, but will he have enough offensive weapons to use. The defense should have no problems being a solid suit under head coach Dave Aranda.
Iowa State
Southeast Missouri - Win
@ Iowa - Loss
Ohio - Win
Baylor - Loss
@ Kansas - Loss
Kansas State - Win
@ Texas - Loss
BYE
Oklahoma - Win
West Virginia - Win
@ Oklahoma State - Loss
Texas Tech - Win
@ TCU - Loss
Final Record: 6-6 (4-5)
Iowa State lost their QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall to the NFL. Hunter Dekkers did get some playing time last year, with the most coming against Iowa, where he threw for 114 yds on 16 attempts and 1 touchdown. His playing time against UNLV and KU came in mop-up duty, but he was under 50 percent in each game. Finally, against OU, he had a decent game in place of Purdy. He will play up or down to the opponent’s level of competition and score just by looking at the stats.
Kansas
Tennesee Tech - Win
@ West Virginia - Loss
@ Houston - Loss
Duke - Win
Iowa State - Win
TCU - Loss
@ Oklahoma - Loss
@ Baylor - Loss
BYE
Oklahoma State - Loss
@ Texas Tech - Loss
Texas - Loss
@ Kansas State - Loss
Final Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Kansas football will be a thing for the first month of the season. Still, after winning over Iowa State to give them a winning record after five games, basketball season will take over, and the Jayhawks fans will be happy to welcome a chance to defend the National Championship.
Kansas State
South Dakota - Win
Missouri - Win
Tulane - Win
@ Oklahoma - Win
Texas Tech - Win
@ Iowa State - Loss
BYE
@ TCU - Win
Oklahoma State - Loss
Texas - Win
@ Baylor - Loss
@ West Virginia - Win
Kansas - Win
Final Record: 9-3 (6-3)
Kansas State will rely on Deuce Vaughn to be a big part of the offense. The difference between a good season and a particular season will be QB Adrian Martinez’s play. Martinez played decently at Nebraska, completing 63.5 percent of his passes but only a 45-to-30 touchdown to interception ratio. Felix Anudike-Uzomah is the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year and will need to anchor the defense.
Oklahoma
UTEP - Win
Kent State - Win
@ Nebraska - Loss
Kansas State - Loss
@ TCU - Win
Texas (in Dallas, TX) - Win
Kansas - Win
BYE
@ Iowa State - Loss
Baylor - Win
@ West Virginia - Loss
Oklahoma State - Win
@ Texas Tech - Loss
Final Record: 7-5 (6-3)
OU will have a new head coach, but he is a well-known name for the Sooners. Brent Venables enters as head coach and should be able to make strides on the defensive side of the ball. New OC Jeff Lebby and QB Dillon Gabriel have experience working together back at UCF, but how fast can Lebby’s offense be integrated at OU.
Oklahoma State
Central Michigan - Win
Arizona State - Win
UAPB - Win
BYE
@ Baylor - Loss
Texas Tech - Win
@ TCU - Win
Texas - Win
@ Kansas State - Win
@ Kansas - Win
Iowa State - Win
@ Oklahoma - Loss
West Virginia - Win
Final Record: 10-2 (7-2)
OSU will have to replace many players on the defense, but backups did get experience last year and should be able to step in under new DC Derek Mason. Spencer Sanders and his play will define how the season goes and whether or not they can get back to the conference championship game.
TCU
@ Colorado - Win
Tarleton State - Win
BYE
@ SMU - Win
Oklahoma - Loss
@ Kansas - Win
Oklahoma State - Win
Kansas State - Loss
@ West Virginia - Loss
Texas Tech - Win
@ Texas - Loss
@ Baylor - Loss
Iowa State - Win
Final Record: 6-6 (3-6)
TCU bounces back with a season that allows them to go to a bowl game. Small steps. The Quarterback is unknown, but Max Duggan does have more than 30 games played. Will the new offense bring some consistency for Duggan, and how does the defense integrate a new scheme in 3-3-5 from 4-2-5?
Texas
ULM - Win
Alabama - Loss
UTSA - Win
@ Texas Tech - Loss
West Virginia - Win
Oklahoma (in Dallas, TX) - Loss
Iowa State - Win
@ Oklahoma State - Loss
BYE
@ Kansas State - Win
TCU - Win
@ Kansas - Win
Baylor - Loss
Final Record: 7-5 (5-4)
The first year for Quinn Ewers will be decent but not to the Texas standards. The positives from this season will be a bowl game and beating Kansas.
Texas Tech
Murray State - Win
Houston - Win
@ NC State - Loss
Texas - Win
@ Kansas State - Loss
@ Oklahoma State - Loss
BYE
West Virginia - Win
Baylor - Loss
@ TCU - Loss
Kansas - Win
@ Iowa State - Loss
Oklahoma - Win
Final Record: 6-6 (4-5)
The first year for Joey McGuire will have some ups and downs, but they can end on a high note with a victory against OU to achieve bowl eligibility. A first-year head coach with three QBs going for the starting job will lead to some growing pains, but if they can get that settled, Tech could have a good season.
West Virginia
@ Pitt - Loss
Kansas - Win
Towson - Win
@ Virginia Tech - Loss
@ Texas - Loss
BYE
Baylor - Loss
@ Texas Tech - Loss
TCU - Win
@ Iowa State - Loss
Oklahoma - Loss
Kansas State - Loss
@ Oklahoma State - Loss
Final Record: 3-9 (2-7)
Neal Brown’s job is on the line, and he has a new OC in Graham Harrell and QB JT Daniels. Daniels has only played in a total of 10 games over the past three seasons. He had a successful season as a freshman at USC with Harrell but has had injury issues since then, leading to his transfer to Georgia and West Virginia. WVU has a tough start with two road rivalry games. They do get Kansas at home in the second game of the season, but it will be a tough slate to the end of the season.
Final Standings:
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Texas
TCU
Iowa State
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Kansas
Baylor and Oklahoma State meet in a rematch of the 2021 Big 12 Championship game, with OSU getting some payback by winning the game. Will there be a round three in 2023?
