BIG 12 WEEK 4 PICKS
Bye: Oklahoma State
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech (WVU -2.0) Thursday night
I am a little surprised at West Virginia being the favorite in this game, especially the road team. WVU has one win against Towson after two tough losses. Virginia Tech hasn’t had a great season going so far, losing their season opener on the road against Old Dominion before winning two games at home versus Boston College and Wofford. Looking at the stats, WVU has a good offense, with JT Daniels being the leader but not a good defense. VT is the opposite with what appears to be a good reason, but that could be because of the competition, but not a good offense. I will take West Virginia with the better offense, and Neal Brown needing wins to save his job.
Pick: West Virginia -2.0
Baylor @ Iowa State (ISU -2.5)
Baylor returned to the winning ways after their tough road loss to BYU, while Iowa State won against Ohio. ISU has had a strong defense, with the run defense being solid. This will put more pressure on Shapen at quarterback for Baylor to make plays down the field. I think this will be the difference between ISU’s run defense and Baylor’s run game. I will take Iowa State at home to get another win and could be a dark horse for the Big 12 title.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
TCU @ SMU (TCU -2.0)
The Iron Skillet is back on the line, and to add to the storylines, this will be Sonny Dykes first time returning to Ford Field as an opposing coach, and it’s for the crosstown rival. Dykes and SMU won the last two meetings in the series, with both being in Fort Worth. SMU lost last week at Maryland, and they had trouble stopping the run, giving up over 200 yards on the ground. This bodes well for TCU since Max Duggan will be the quarterback for TCU, and he is a better runner than a passer. The play action can set up specific shots for TCU, but the run must be a threat for that to happen. TCU has also had trouble slowing down SMU in the previous two meetings, but Dykes brought a new defensive scheme, switching from 4-2-5 to 3-3-5. TCU has only had two games in the new system, and SMU will be its first real test. TCU has had two weeks to work and concentrate on this game so that they will get the win.
Pick: TCU -2.0
Duke @ Kansas (KU -7.0)
Kansas and Duke are both at 3-0, and it doesn’t involve basketball. Kansas has a potent offense, and they went to Houston and showed it. Jalon Daniels is averaging less than 200 yards passing but makes up for it with his running. Duke looks to be a more balanced offense compared to Kansas, and they did go on the road to Northwestern to get a win earlier in the season. Duke has a slightly better defense and can cover the spread, but Kansas wins a close game.
Pick: Duke +7.0
Texas @ Texas Tech (TEX -6.5)
The Red Raiders are coming off a tough road trip to North Carolina State, and with Texas looking like they are not going to fold at the slightest difficulty, this will be a game that is a couple of years away before it will be competitive. Hudson Card played about what I thought he would, with 161 passing yards and one touchdown against UTSA, but Bijan Robinson was able to take over the game, and Texas ran away with the game. The last time Card played a road game was at Arkansas, which did not end well for him. Texas will lean on Robinson and an improved defense to get the win and cover.
Pick: Texas -6.5
Kansas State @ Oklahoma (OU -12.5)
Kansas State was shocked at home by Tulane, while Oklahoma showed the nation they are a different team by blowing out Nebraska on the road. KSU has won three-of-the-last-five games in the series in Norman, but Adrian Martinez's limitations in passing the ball will put too much pressure on the run game, and OU’s offense will be able to move the ball well. OU wins the game and will cover the spread.
Pick: Oklahoma -12.5
