Big 12 WEEK 1 PICKS
Straight up: 4-0
Against the spread: 2-5
Week zero was a struggle, and it will probably be the same this week as all of these teams are playing their first game, and several have new head coaches and new players at key positions. Hopefully, this is the last week of growing pains for this season, and I can get a groove picking games for later in the season.
Central Michigan @ Oklahoma State (OSU -21.5)
The last time these two teams played, it ended in heartbreak for the Chippewas won on a Hail Mary pass and a hook and lateral play as the clock struck triple zeros in 2016. CMU is coming off a 9-4 season with a bowl win and being co-division champions in the Mid American Conference. The line is a little too big for my taste, especially in the first game against a quality opponent. I would take the Cowboys straight up, but the points with the Chippewas.
PICK: Central Michigan +21.5
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh (PITT -7.5)
This is a great way to begin the season. This rivalry game has not been contested in 10 seasons. West Virginia has won the last three in the series, and they will need all the help they can get. JT Daniels is the new QB for the Mountaineers, and if Neal Brown has any hope of staying as the head coach, they will need a big season, and there would be no better way to start than a rivalry win. Pitt also has a new QB in Kedon Slovis, who was a teammate of Daniels at USC in 2019. Slovis replaced Daniels at QB after Daniels was seriously injured in the opening game of 2019. Pitt also lost their Bilentnikoff winner at WR in Jordan Addison when he transferred to USC this past offseason. I feel this game will be tight and come down to a last-minute kick to win so that I will take the points and WVU.
PICK: West Virginia +7.5
TCU @ Colorado (TCU -14.0)
Sonny Dykes, the new head coach at TCU, said three QBs could play in the Colorado game. Max Duggan and Chandler Morris were listed as co-starters on the depth chart released at the beginning of the week, but both can’t be under center to start the game. It will be interesting to see who starts, how much playing time each player gets, and when the playing time comes in the game. Third-string QB Sam Jackson will have his role as he has seen some time at QB and WR in fall practices. Colorado has also decided not to announce their starting QB, and they won fewer games than TCU last year. I will go with TCU winning the game but Colorado and the points due to the uncertainty at QB and this being a road game with a new head coach.
PICK: Colorado +14.0
Tennessee Tech @ Kansas (no line listed)
Kansas showed improvement last season, especially in the previous three games of the 2021 season when they beat Texas and played TCU and West Virginia close. They do not want the end of last season to be lost in the first game of the 2022 season, especially since Tennessee Tech is coming off a 3-8 season. This is a must-win for Kansas.
PICK: Kansas
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State (no line listed)
Iowa State has a history of coming out of the gates slowly in the first game of the season, but they will want to get Hunter Dekkers a lot of work before the Cy-Hawk game in week two. Dekkers did get some playing time last year and his best games were against Iowa and Oklahoma. ISU should win the game easily.
PICK: Iowa State
UTEP @ Oklahoma (OU - 31.5)
Oklahoma will want to come out and make a statement in their first game with Brent Venables as head coach, and UTEP had problems with North Texas in week zero. This game will be over by halftime, and the only question is if OU will cover, which I think they will as Dillon Gabriel and Jeff Lebby try to get reacquainted with each other.
PICK: Oklahoma -31.5
Albany @ Baylor (no line listed)
Baylor is the reigning Big 12 champ, and even though they did lose a lot from the offensive skill positions, however, the majority of the offensive and defensive lines return, and that will be more than enough for the Bears to get the win and try to establish something before their big week two matchup in Provo versus BYU.
PICK: Baylor
South Dakota @ Kansas State (no line listed)
South Dakota did make the FCS playoffs, so they should be a decent test for KSU in the first half, but by halftime, I expect the Wildcats to pull away with too much Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez.
PICK: Kansas State
Murray State @ Texas Tech (no line listed)
This is the first game of the Joey McGuire era at Tech and his first game as a college head coach, and the Racers shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Red Raiders as they will get the win. McGuire will also get some game action to look at the QBs. Tyler Shough has been announced as the starter. He transferred from Oregon and was the starter last year until he was hurt in the Big 12 opener versus Texas and missed the rest of the season. The Red Raiders hired Zach Kittley away from Western Kentucky, and it will be a homecoming for him. Kittley has been a name on the rise, starting at Tech as a graduate assistant, then moving to Houston Baptist and later to Western Kentucky for the Offensive Coordinator and QB coach role. He will fill the same position at Tech, and we will have to wait and see how his version of the air raid offense does in the Big 12.
PICK: Texas Tech
UL Monroe @ Texas (TEX -37.5)
This will be the first start for Quinn Ewers at the collegiate level, and he may struggle early on in the game but can also lean on All Big 12 RB, Bijan Robinson, to carry the load while Ewers settles in. Texas will have a lot of things to work on with Alabama coming in Week 2, and they may keep the starters in a series or two longer than usual. Sarkisian wants to protect his players from injury, but the new recruits need all the work they can get. The offensive line was a problem last year for the Longhorns, but they brought in several highly rated players. Texas will roll and win big, trying to get any momentum going into week two. I don’t like giving this amount of points and will be wary of the backdoor cover by ULM after Texas takes their foot off the pedal towards the end of the game, but I will stick with Texas
PICK: Texas -37.5
