Way Too Early CFP Predictions 2024

It's never too early to start thinking about the 2024 college football season, even when predicting what the first 12-team College Football Playoff field will look like — and how it will play out. With all of the conference changes and ever-increasing player movement, there are bound to be a few surprise teams that make it in, so here’s an early prediction.

Four Highest Ranked Conference Champions(These teams will have first-round byes):

1: Ohio State, BIG10 Champions

Coach Ryan Day won't have any excuses if the Buckeyes aren't a top CFP contender. Ohio State has won the offseason. No team has come close to doing what the Buckeyes have done so far. First, the program will bring back many key contributors who could have declared for the 2024 NFL Draft. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, running back TreVeyon Henderson, edge defender Jack Sawyer, edge defender JT Tuimoloau, interior defensive lineman Tyleik Williams, and cornerback Denzel Burke will all return and make a push for a national title in 2024. The team also picked up a couple of superstars in the transfer portal in Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins and Alabama safety Caleb Downs. The addition of former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard will also bolster the squad. To round it all out, head coach Ryan Day made one of the biggest hires of the offseason by luring Chip Kelly away from UCLA to serve as the Buckeyes' offensive coordinator. It’s national Championship or bust for the Buckeyes in 2024, and games against Oregon (Oct. 12) and Michigan (Nov. 30) are the highlights on the schedule. 

2: Georgia, SEC Champions

The Bulldogs came within one victory over Alabama of reaching the playoff and having a chance to win a third straight national championship. The Bulldogs did lose 20 players to the transfer portal, including linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson to Kentucky, but the coaching changes at Alabama and Michigan opened up the path for Kirby Smart to get this team back into the national championship mix. Georgia reloaded with another No. 1-ranked recruiting class and a few key additions from the transfer portal. Running back Trevor Etienne (Florida), receivers London Humphreys (Vanderbilt), Colbie Young (Miami) Michael Jackson III (USC) and tight end Benjamin Yurosek (Stanford) could help fill holes on offense. The defense returns linebacker Smael Mondon – who had 68 tackles and three sacks – and All-American safety Malachi Starks. The schedule will be difficult with an opener against Clemson (Aug. 31) in Atlanta and SEC road games at, Alabama (Sept. 28), Texas(Oct. 19), and Ole Miss. 

3: Utah, BIGIX Champions

The Utes lost four games or more in each of the past three seasons, as they were undone by injuries and lost four of their last six games in 2023. With quarterback Cameron Rising returning from a knee injury that caused him to miss all of last season, the Utes could be much better in their first season in the Big 12. Tight end Brant Kuithe is also coming back from a knee injury, along with tailback Micah Bernard. The Utes started four sophomores and a freshman on the offensive line last season so that unit should grow up. Utah had 15 players enter the transfer portal, including running back Ja'Quinden Jackson – who led the Uets with 797 rushing yards and four TDs last season. Jonah Elliss, Cole Bishop, and Sione Vaki entered the NFL Draft, so the defense will need to be re-tooled. After losing three starters in the secondary, Utah added safety Alaka'i Gilman (Stanford) and cornerbacks Cameron Calhoun (Michigan) and Kenan Johnson (Georgia Tech). With head coach Kyle Whittingham consistently producing elite defenses, the Utes should be one of the top contenders in the new-look Big 12 next year.  Utah knocked on the door of the CFP conversation a few times in the four-team era. Kyle Whittingham now has what should be the Big 12 favorite heading into 2024. The Utes get Arizona (Sept. 28) and TCU (Oct. 19) at home, and the Oklahoma State (Sept. 21) matchup will be fun. 

4: Clemson, ACC Champions

The defense was still excellent for the Tigers this past season, but the question is whether the offense can keep up. Clemson lost 10 players to the transfer portal, and the Tigers did not have any incoming transfers. Clemson did have a top-15 recruiting class, and five-star freshman receiver TJ Moore could be an impact player right away.  Hiring former Ole Miss coach Matt Luke to coach the offensive line should help, but the Tigers might still be short-handed in terms of talent up front. Getting receivers Cole Turner and Antonio Williams back from injuries will also help. Linebacker Barrett Carter also announced his return for his senior season despite being projected as one of the top linebacker prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft. If you believe quarterback Cade Klubnik is going to continue to grow in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley's system, the Tigers might be poised to catch Florida State and take another ACC title. If you believe coach Dabo Swinney hasn't done enough to reload his roster after losing star tailback Will Shipley and a handful of defensive stars to the NFL draft, then it might be another subpar season by Clemson standards. Either way, they’ll need to make serious strides in Year 2 to win the ACC and secure a spot in the 12-team playoff. Clemson opens with Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game on Aug. 31.

The Fifth Conference Champion and the At-Large Bids:

5: Texas, SEC At-Large Bid

The Longhorns proved they're finally back by reaching the CFP for the first time and nearly taking down Washington in a 37-31 loss in a semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Now coach Steve Sarkisian will have to show his program can stay in the sport's upper echelon against increased competition in the SEC. We'll probably have to wait another season for the Arch Manning era with quarterback Quinn Ewers coming back. Steve Sarkisian brings back both coordinators for a fourth season, and the Longhorns have continuity heading into the SEC. The Longhorns have one of the most talented rosters in the FBS, and they are ready for the move to the SEC. Quinn Ewers stayed for another season, and Arch Manning did not hit the transfer portal. C.J. Baxter, Johntay Cook, and Ryan Wingo will see increased roles, and sophomore linebacker Anthony Hill will anchor the defense. Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba was another huge pickup in the transfer portal. He'll need to find new targets this spring with receivers Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders jumping to the NFL. Transfers Isaiah Bond (Alabama) and Matthew Golden (Houston) are plenty capable. The Longhorns play at Michigan on Sept. 7 and host Georgia on Oct. 19. They won't play Alabama, Auburn, LSU or Ole Miss during the regular season.  The schedule is one blockbuster after another, which includes the Red River Rivalry game at Dallas against Oklahoma (Oct. 12) and a much-anticipated rivalry renewal at Texas A&M (Nov. 30).

6: Ole Miss, SEC At-Large Bid

After guiding the Rebels to the first 11-win campaign in the 118-year history of the program, coach Lane Kiffin is gearing up for what could be an even bigger season in 2024. Unexpectedly losing Judkins to Ohio State hurt, but Kiffin grabbed plenty of talent out of the transfer portal, especially on defense. Even without Judkins, the Rebels bring back a ton of firepower on offense in quarterback Jaxson Dart, wide receiver Tre Harris, and tight end Caden Prieskorn. All are among the best-returning players at their respective positions. Coordinators Charlie Weis Jr. and Pete Golding are back, too. Defensive tackle Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), defensive end Princely Umanmielen (Florida), and linebacker Chris Paul Jr. (Arkansas) should help right away. Adding former Washington starters Julius Buelow and Nate Kalepo should improve the offensive line. The Rebels play at LSU (Oct. 12) and have home games against Oklahoma (Oct. 26) and Georgia (Nov. 9). 

7: Penn State, BIG10 At-Large Bid

The Nittany Lions couldn't leap past Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East last season, and things will only get more difficult with Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington joining the league. Coach James Franklin hired Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to provide a spark in the passing game, which ranked 80th in the FBS with 215 yards per contest. Quarterback Drew Allar has to open things up, and he has some nice players around him in running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and tight end Tyler Warren. Help is on the way in both aspects, as Penn State picked up a couple of former five-star recruits in the transfer portal: wide receiver Julian Fleming (Ohio State) and offensive tackle Nolan Rucci (Wisconsin). Former Indiana coach Tom Allen takes over what should be a very good defense after former coordinator Manny Diaz left to become Duke's head coach. Adding transfers Jalen Kimber (Florida) and A.J. Harris (Georgia) was important after lockdown cornerbacks Kalen King and Johnny Dixon left for the NFL. Linebacker Abdul Carter is a first-round talent and is listed as a defensive end going into the spring. Back-to-back home games against Ohio State (Nov. 2) and Washington (Nov. 9) will determine whether the Nittany Lions are in the Big Ten championship hunt, which they should be. Penn State would have been a regular in a 12-team format during the four-team era, and now the challenge for James Franklin is to make that a reality. 

8: Notre Dame, Independent At-Large Bid

The Fighting Irish weren't bad in coach Marcus Freeman's first two seasons, winning 19 games. But it's time for them to turn the corner, and Freeman has laid the groundwork by adding former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard and bringing back offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who directed LSU's high-flying offense in 2023. Leonard underwent ankle surgery to repair an injury suffered last season. He is expected to be ready for spring practice in March. Running back Jeremiyah Love and receiver Jaden Greathouse are set for larger roles. The Irish also added receivers Kris Mitchell (Florida International) and Beaux Collins (Clemson) to shore up an underwhelming receiving corps. Finding replacements for bookend tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher will be a priority in spring practice. Al Golden is back as defensive coordinator, and the defense returns key players at all three levels, including All-Americans Xavier Watts and Howard Cross III. Watts led the nation with seven interceptions last year. Benjamin Morrison will enter his junior year as one of the best-returning cornerbacks in college football. The Irish will maintain independent status in the 12-team CFP era, and this first season is an interesting test run. Notre Dame’s schedule is favorable, too, with an opener at Texas A&M and a home game against Florida State on Nov. 9.

9: Oregon, BIG10 At-Large Bid

The Ducks' biggest victory during the offseason was undoubtedly coach Dan Lanning's commitment to stay and not chase Alabama's vacancy. Lanning guided the Ducks to a 21-5 record during his first two seasons, and now he'll lead them into their maiden campaign in the Big Ten. He proved his recruiting chops by signing ESPN's No. 4-ranked class and landing a handful of top transfers. Former Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel should be a plug-and-play replacement for quarterback Bo Nix. Oregon also added another top signal-caller in UCLA’s Dante Moore. The Ducks kept offensive coordinator Will Stein and co-defensive coordinators Tosh Lupolli and Junior Adams. Texas A&M receiver Evan Stewart will be a star opposite Tez Johnson, who returns after compiling 1,182 yards and 10 TDs.Safety Kobe Savage (Kansas State) and cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) were nice pickups from the portal, especially with three starters leaving the secondary. The Ducks also feature one of the nation’s best offensive tackles in Ajani Cornelius and picked up one of the best cornerbacks in the country in Washington’s Jabbar Muhammad. The Ducks get Ohio State (Oct. 12) and Michigan (Nov. 2), and the new regular-season finale is Washington (Nov. 30). Could the Ducks win a Big Ten championship in their first season? It’s not out of the question.

10: Tennessee, SEC At-Large Bid

It figures to be another interesting season on Rocky Top, as the Volunteers are fighting the NCAA over alleged rules violations involving five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He completed 12 of 19 passes for 151 yards with one touchdown and added three more scores rushing in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Iamaleava will have plenty of playmakers available on offense, including Dylan Sampson, Squirrel White, Bru McCoy, and Chris Brazzell II, who was Tulane's leading pass-catcher in 2023. The offensive line should be solid with center Cooper Mays and tackle John Campbell Jr. coming back. The Vols added LSU's Zalance Heard, one of the top offensive tackles available in the portal. On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers feature a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in edge defender James Pearce Jr. Shoring up the secondary will be a priority in the spring after six defensive backs entered the transfer portal. Road trips to Oklahoma (Sept. 21) and Georgia (Nov. 16) and a home date against Alabama (Oct. 19) will be the pressure points.

11: Oklahoma State, BIGIX At-Large Bid

With Oklahoma and Texas moving on to the SEC, Oklahoma State has a chance to stake its claim to the newly shaped Big 12. There's a reason for optimism with the return of tailback Ollie Gordon II, the FBS' leading rusher with 1,732 yards in 2023m, and my pick to win the Heisman Trophy next season.  Also back are all five starting offensive linemen, leading receiver Brennan Presley and quarterback Alan Bowman, who was given an NCAA waiver to play a seventh season. Linebacker Nickolas Bowman returned after compiling 140 tackles last season. OSU picked up veteran UTEP cornerback Kobe Hylton and Obi Ezeigbo, a pass-rusher from Division II Gannon University in Erie, Pennsylvania. Home games against Arkansas (Sept. 7), Utah (Sept. 21), and a road trip to Kansas State (Sept. 28) will be tell-tale signs. The Pokes also play Big 12 road games at Baylor, BYU, Colorado, and TCU. Oklahoma State lost nine players to the transfer portal, including quarterback Gunnar Gundy – who left for Ohio. Mike Gundy has led the Cowboys to 18 consecutive winning seasons. Will this be the year they finally break through to the CFP? Will the Cowboys run the Big 12 show now? 

12: Liberty, Conference-USA Champions

Since the best Group of Five champion is now guaranteed a playoff berth, it makes sense to point out the favorite for that spot next season. Schools like Boise State or Memphis could’ve been placed here, but Liberty holds that distinction right now. The Flames are coming off a 13-1 season under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell and return quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley. Salter was named the Conference USA MVP by the league's coaches, and his return gives Liberty a great chance to finish as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion in the final selection committee rankings. In his first season as the Flames football head coach, Jamey Chadwell won the Conference USA Championship. It was also the very first season for Liberty football moving to Division I and into the conference. Chadwell may be one of the most underrated coaches in America, and the fact that he was able to lure Salter back gives the Flames a chance to repeat as conference champions and put the team in the College Football Playoffs.