Madison, Wisconsin is not only one of the best college towns in America, but also home to one of the toughest places to play in the country.  When Wisconsin gets up for a game, it is loud and it is miserable for the opponent.  This Saturday, the 4th ranked Alabama Crimson Tide come into Camp Randall Stadium and we will see if the Badgers have what it takes to spring the upset. 

Alabama’s Explosive plays

If the Badgers want any chance of pulling off an upset on Saturday, they must limit Alabama’s explosive plays. While the Tide have put up 63 and 42 points in their first two games, those numbers might be somewhat misleading. According to College Football Data’s explosiveness metric, which measures the average EPA on “successful” plays, Alabama ranks 4th nationally. However, when it comes to success rate—a measure of consistent down-to-down success—the Tide are 60th, a concerning figure given the level of competition they’ve faced so far. With all due respect to Western Kentucky and South Florida, Wisconsin is a completely different challenge.

Although Alabama has struggled with consistency, quarterback Jalen Milroe's big-play ability is undeniable. His talent for extending plays outside the pocket and launching deep throws is impressive, but the question remains: is it sustainable? Wisconsin Head Coach Luke Fickell is a defensive mastermind, and you can bet he’ll have a game plan to keep everything in front of his defense. With a strong secondary, Wisconsin might be one of the few teams capable of containing Alabama’s explosive plays and forcing them to methodically drive the field.

Alabama offensive line vs Wisconsin defensive line

Coming into the 2024 season, Alabama’s offensive line was projected to be one of the team’s core strengths—a unit that could stabilize the offense even if other areas struggled. However, last week against South Florida, it was a rough showing for that unit. Six tackles for loss, three sacks, and a handful of penalties definitely is cause for concern considering the Badgers front will be much stronger than South Florida’s.  Injuries have played a significant role in Alabama's struggles. Star tackle Kadyn Proctor, injured in warmups before the season opener, has yet to play a game. On the opposite side, Elijah Pritchett has also been dealing with injuries, though Head Coach Kalen DeBoer is hopeful that both could be available on Saturday.

However, Wisconsin’s defensive line hasn’t exactly been dominant either. In their season opener against Western Michigan—a game where they were 24.5-point favorites—the Badgers managed just one sack and one tackle for loss, with a front seven havoc rate of only 3.8%. While the performance against FCS opponent South Dakota showed some improvement, it wasn’t anything to write home about. Compounding their issues, Wisconsin lost star defensive lineman James Thompson Jr., a blow that seems to have had a significant impact. Whether the drop-off is due to his absence or other factors, the Badgers must step up and create pressure on Jalen Milroe and the Alabama run game if they hope to have a chance on Saturday.

Wisconsin passing game

After a disappointing offensive showing in 2023, Wisconsin aimed to revamp their passing attack by bringing in quarterback Tyler Van Dyke from the transfer portal. Van Dyke was expected to elevate the Badgers' air game, providing a much-needed spark. However, through two games against Western Michigan and South Dakota, the results have been underwhelming. Van Dyke is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt with only one touchdown pass, and the Wisconsin offense has yet to score 30 points in a game offensively.

On the other side, Alabama’s defense has been impressive, particularly against the pass. The Crimson Tide rank eighth nationally in success rate on passing downs and have stifled opposing quarterbacks so far this season. However, there is a potential weakness; Alabama’s defense ranks much lower when it comes to allowing explosive plays. If Wisconsin wants to find success, they may need to push the ball downfield with deep shots and crossing routes. Additionally, Alabama's secondary is young, with a few freshmen seeing significant playing time. The hostile environment of a road game in Madison could pose challenges for the inexperienced Tide defenders and give the Badgers an opportunity to finally make some plays in the passing game.