SEC Football: Predicting Win Totals in the SEC East

South Carolina (6.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 8-5

Key Players: TE Trey Knox, Wr Juju McDowell, S Nick Emmanwori, S DQ Smith

South Carolina ended their season with a lot to look forward to ending their regular season with wins over Tennessee and Clemson before falling in a shootout with Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl where they still looked more than solid. The Gamecocks are looking to build on this momentum with several key returning pieces for the 2023 season. The two big names returning include Spencer Rattler and Juice Wells, however the big question for the offense will be the running back position. Junior Juju McDowell is the team’s leading returning rusher, yet he only had 62 carries for 219 yards in 2022. The offense will have to lead the team however as they are only returning four starters on the defensive side of the ball where the secondary will likely be the strongest unit of the defense. Looking at the schedule for South Carolina they have a pretty favorable schedule in the SEC with an opening game with North Carolina that will set the tone for the season. I see the Gamecocks finishing above their win total with a record of 8-4.

Vanderbilt (3.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 5-7

Key Players: RB Patrick Smith, QB A.J. Swann, LB Ethan Barr, DL Aeneas DiCosmo

Vanderbilt football is getting better and it’s clear to see that this is a Commodore team that is trending upwards. There seems to be a better sense of stability in the program and hope to build on an impressive last few weeks of the 2022 season where they were able to steal a few games in the SEC against Kentucky and Florida. Sophomore A.J. Swann will have to take a step forward if Vandy wants to continue this success after the departure of Mike Wright, however he will have a lot of help from veteran receiver Will Sheppard who will likely be the bright spot of this offense. The defense will have to take another big step forward which will be difficult after losing 56% of their production but will be led by defensive lineman Christian James who was one of the strong points of the defense last year. Looking to their schedule, the Commodores could be off to a potential 4-0 start to the year if they can steal a win on the road against Wake Forest. No matter how good that goes Vandy is still in the SEC and has a treacherous schedule and will need some luck, but I see this Commodore team finishing 5-7 and over their win total with the potential to go bowling.

Missouri (6.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 6-7

Key Players: QB Jake Garcia, WR Luther Burden, CB Kris Abrams-Draine, S Jaylon Carlies

Over the past several seasons, it’s difficult to find a program that better encapsulates mediocracy than Missouri. Since 2019 the Tigers have either sat exactly at .500 or one game below .500 with a record of 6-7. The win total for Missouri practically sets itself as it asks one question of can Missouri rise above the bar set of seasons past. One crucial aspect in the Missouri Tigers success will be transfer quarterback Jake Garcia from Miami who will likely get the nod in 2023. He should have solid targets back as well with Luther Burden looking to improve on a good rookie year for the Tigers as well as other returners with valuable experience. However improved their offense might be in 2023, the Defense will likely be the unit that keeps the Tigers in ball games, especially when conference play comes around. The Missouri defense held teams to just above 25 points a game and return eight of the 11 starters on the defense. Veteran linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper should be leading the squad with a more than solid secondary sitting behind him. Unfortunately for the Tigers, it doesn’t look like the season where they take that leap in the SEC. Despite a relatively easy first five games to start the year, they run into the gauntlet of SEC powerhouses and will likely struggle to get wins down the stretch which is why I have them finishing just below their win total at 6-6.

Tennessee (9.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 11-2

Key Players: QB Joe Milton, OLB Kenan Pili, DT Bryan Eason, RB Jaylin Wright

One word to describe Tennessee in 2022 was electric and was everything that Tennessee football should be. Tennessee’s offense was captivating all season with breakout star and early season Heisman candidate, Hendon Hooker, who threw for 27 TD’s and only 2 INT’s all year. They had season defining wins over Florida and Alabama before eventually stumbling to South Carolina, however if they want to return to that team that was National Championship contenders, they will have to have a few things go their way. The first factor of this and perhaps the biggest is the play of quarterback Joe Milton who showed promise in their victory over Clemson in the Orange Bowl. He showed flashes of his arm power, but it’ll be near impossible to match the numbers that we saw out of Hooker this past year. He will also need some offensive weapons to step up similar to wide receiver Jalin Hyatt this past year. Looking towards the defense they weren’t exactly as spectacular as the offense last year and will certainly need to do more if they want to remain National Championship contenders. Key returners for the defense will be leading tackler Aaron Beasley and defensive lineman Roman Harrison who will have to lead the unit. Looking at their schedule, there are quite a few tough matchups for the Vols and will need to catch a few breaks. I have the Vols finishing just below their win total with a record of 9-3.

Kentucky (6.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 7-6

Key Players: QB Devin Leary, S Jordan Lovett, LB Trevin Wallace, WR Dane Key

The obvious loss for Kentucky that will be the biggest question mark going into the 2023 season is loss of quarterback Will Levis who went to the NFL this past offseason. No matter how big of loss that seems to be on paper, this shouldn’t worry the Kentucky fans all too much. In fact, even with Levis, the Kentucky offense at times still felt very stagnant leaving a lotta of room for improvement this coming season. Believe it or not, I believe this will be a much more efficient Wildcat offense, with new additions such as former NC State quarterback Devin Leary and new Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen who is returning from the Los Angeles Rams. Leary will have an array of weapons to work with as they return one of the best receiver corps in the SEC along with Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis who looks to be RB1 here in the fall. Kentucky as always should continue with the solid defense they’ve had in years past. They will need to fill five spots on the defensive side of the ball but they will have plenty of depth to reload at those positions with young talent along with veteran returners such as Deone Walker in the trenches and linebacker J.J. Weaver. I think there is some potential for Kentucky to surprise like they did in 2021, however most likely see the Wildcats finishing with a record of 7-5 slightly above their win total.

Georgia (11.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 15-0

Key Players: TE Brock Bowers, DL Nazir Stackhouse, S Javon Bullard, WR Ladd McConkey

Georgia should be a very exciting team to watch this coming fall, not only are they attempting to three-peat as National Champions, but they should also be doing it with a crop of new and exciting players down there in Athens. Despite losing a handful of amazing defenders and their star quarterback, the Bulldogs are by no means in a rebuilding state. They are rather in a reloading phase ushering in a new era Georgia Bulldogs. Looking first at the offensive side of the ball, there should be a full-blown quarterback battle in fall camp with Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff, though both have shown to have great potential whoever does win the job will have plenty of weapons to work with. The primary target who can do just about everything and who I think should be a Heisman candidate is tight end Brock Bowers. Along with Bowers they brought in top receivers from across the SEC, Rara Thomas from Mississippi State and Dominic Lovett from Missouri thanks to the portal. On the defensive side of the ball they should be more than equipped to repeat their success from just last year where they have great experience in the trenches and return interior linebackers Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon Jr. along with their star in the secondary Javon Bullard. Winning three straight is more than difficult, yet I do like Georgia to hit the over on their win total and repeat as SEC Champions.

Florida (5.5 wins)

Previous Seasons Record: 6-7

Key Players: DL Cam Jackson, RB Montrell Johnson, CB Jason Marshall Jr.

Despite what the record might show, the 2022 Florida Gators did have one of the best quarterbacks in this year's draft class with Anthony Richardson. The struggles aren’t necessarily indicative of Richardsons performance however but rather other units that will need to see improvement if Florida wants to avoid another losing season. The first being the offense line who will hopefully see some progress this year where though they weren’t all bad, they are looking to the portal for quick improvements. There is still a large question mark for the quarterback position with Graham Mertz and Jack Miller, however neither option looked great in this year's spring game. On the defensive side of the ball the Gators should have some depth at all three levels of the unit where there is some valuable experience across the board along with a talented recruiting class. The boys in the trenches should be led by edge rusher Princely Umanmielen and Teradja Mitchell from Ohio State who should be a solid line backer behind the line. On top of this, they should have one of the nation’s top corners with Jason Marshall Jr. Unfortunately for the Gators, I still don’t see this as the season where they turn it completely around but still finish above their win total with a record of 6-6.

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