SEC Football: Predicting Win Totals for 2023 Season (SEC West)

Previous Season Record: 5-7

Key Players: QB Payton Thorne, RB Jarquez Hunter, LB Cam Riley, LB Austin Keys

Auburn is currently at a conflicting middle ground of the SEC. They’ve shown flashes of competing with the best and having the ability to be a problem in the SEC, but for the most part it is a slightly average to below average team in the conference. There’s a lot of things that needs to happen in the Tigers program but the biggest change likely seen this year is the addition of Payton Thorne to the Auburn offense along with a handful of other players from the portal who are expected to contribute upon arrival. The offensive line will feature several new faces such as center Avery Jones, offensive tackle Dillon Wade, and offensive tackle Gunner Britton who’s experience should carry this unit to have a very productive offense. The name to replace will be Tank Bigsby who has been a workhorse for Auburn the past few years, however he will be replaced with another talented and experienced running back with Jarquez Hunter. Looking to the defense, the Tigers return the second leading tackler on the defense, linebacker Cam Riley who will be joined by a new addition from Ole Miss, Austin Keys, who will also be in the middle. They have a talented secondary to go along with the front seven but depth might be a question throughout the season. Looking at their schedule, I like the Tigers to win out in their non-conference slate and steal a few games in conference and finish above their total with a record of 7-5.

Texas A&M (7.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 5-7

Key Players: RB Reuben Owens, WR Moose Muhammad III, CB Tyreek Chappell, S Demani Richardson

One word to summarize the Aggies in 2022 is simply put, disappointing. Texas A&M started the season at number six in the polls and aspirations of SEC champions and a berth into the College Football Playoff. Though at times they felt like they could have been that team, it never quite came to fruition leading to several difficult losses during the year where five of their seven losses were by six points or fewer. The offensive struggles were a focal point of last year where the Aggies should hopefully see major improvements in the coming year. Conner Weigman should play a major role in this turnaround as the quarterback flashed star power in 2022 and has proven returning wide receivers in Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart. The running back position will be a question mark however, they are bringing in five star Rueben Owens who should be an interesting addition for the Aggies this season. Looking at the defensive side of the ball, it is strikingly similar to the offense where despite struggling in 2022, there is hope of significant improvement for 2023. The Aggies had one of the best pass defenses in 2022, change needs to come with the rush defense. Those responsibilities will be put on defensive lineman Mckinnley Jackson and Fadil Diggs to this upfront where they will likely rely on Chris Russell Jr. and Edgerrin Cooper at the linebacker position. Safety Demanin Richardson should be the anchor of an already very strong secondary who hopes to repeat their success. As I previously mentioned, this is a team that should see significant improvement in 2023 but will be tested on the road in Miami early in the year that should set the tone for the season. I like the Aggies this year to be a tough team, however I still have them finishing below their win total with a record of 7-5.

Ole Miss (7.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 8-5

Key Players: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Tre Marshall, DL Joshua Harris, LB Khari Coleman

Despite a somewhat successful campaign for Ole Miss in 2022, there left something to be desired for the program. Yes, Lane Kiffin is an electric coach who has experienced success, in fact the Rebels are the third winningest program in the SEC, Ole Miss is still looking to take that next step forward. The Rebels are looking to the transfer portal to help them take that next step where they were very successful this offseason. The quarterback room will be extremely deep due to the portal featuring big time names like Jaxson Dart, Spencer Sanders, and Walker Howard who are all power five caliber starters. One of these lucky guys will share a backfield with dynamic running back Quinshon Judkins who could be an All-American type of player this coming year. The big name wide receiver who Kiffin picked up from the portal is Tre Marshall who has potential to be a number one guy. Defensively, expect to see major improvements in the back seven with returning linebacker Khari Coleman playing a large role who will be getting much needed assistance with proven Louisville linebacker Monty Montgomery. The secondary hopes to up their playmaking abilities with new transfers from Georgia Tech and Miami University, Zamari Walton and John Saunders respectively, who look to make immediate impacts in 2023. Looking at the Rebels schedule, despite the drastic improvements from the portal it’s hard to see Ole Miss pushing for an appearance in the SEC Championship due to their rather treacherous schedule. However I do like the Rebels to hit the over on their win total finishing with a record of 9-3.

Mississippi State (6.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 9-4

Key Players: QB Will Rogers, RB Jo’quavious Marks, LB Jett Johnson, LB Nathaniel Watson

The talking point for Mississippi State this season is how new Head Coach, Zach Arnett, will fare in the SEC stepping up from his previous role as the defensive coordinator. This is an interesting MSU team as though there is experience throughout the team, it still has its question marks and feels as though it can be fairly unpredictable. Starting on the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Will Rogers should be the guy as he has been more than reliable the past several years for the Bulldogs and should be complemented with big play threats Jaden Walley and Lideatrick Griffin at the wideout position. There should be a slight adjustment however with the introduction of a new balanced offense that new Offensive Coordinator Keven Barbay hopes to install this coming year after spending several years in the air raid. Defensively it should be a veteran led squad that performed well throughout conference play as they are returning the two top leading tacklers from the SEC with Jett Johnson and Nathanial Watson. Their secondary should also be able to hold their own where they were near the top of the SEC in interceptions and passes defended, however will have to replace the storied Bulldog cornerback Emanual Forbes Jr.. Despite some veteran leadership, I see this being a down year for the Bulldogs under the consideration of the changes in the coaching staff and the difficult schedule. I see the Bulldogs finishing with a record of 6-6.

LSU (9.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 10-4

Key Players: QB Jayden Daniels, WR Malik Nabers, DT Mekhi Wingo

Brian Kelley led the LSU Tigers to a remarkable turnaround in 2022 and capped it off with a huge season defining upset win against the Alabama Crimson Tide giving them a chance to play for an SEC championship. The Tigers are hoping to build on this success as they are going to be led by breakout star and potential Heisman candidate, Jayden Daniels. They return eight total starters on the offense including all five offensive lineman which makes this already dangerous offense a contender to be one of the best in the SEC. Along with an experienced offensive line, they have talented wide receivers with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. returning who had very solid 2022 seasons who look to step into a bigger role to replace Kayshon Boutte. They are also adding Alabama transfer, Aaron Anderson, who expects to have a major role in the offense this coming year. Looking to the defensive side of the ball they too will be returning one of their best players with Harold Perkins Jr. who had an amazing freshman campaign at linebacker who was one of the best in the nation at his position. Alongside Perkins will be leading tackler Greg Penn III, upfront should be equally impressive with the returning All-American Mekhi Wingo playing in the trenches. The secondary will feature the most new faces as they went to the portal to look for depth but should be able to hold their own in the SEC. It’s really hard not to be excited about LSU this coming year with so many returning pieces and Brian Kelly’s second year it’s fair for there to be higher expectations. I like the Tigers to finish well above their win total with a record of 11-1 as though this is a strong team, there are plenty of opportunities for LSU to slip up and stumble throughout the year.

Arkansas (7.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 7-6

Key Players: QB KJ Jefferson, LT Joshua Brown, DT Landon Jackson, LB Chris Paul Jr.

Arkansas started and ended their season strong last year, but faced several road bumps throughout the season. These road bumps meant losing some very winnable games with Liberty and Missouri as they dropped both matchups by a total of four points. They’ll have to eliminate these types of games if they wanna see improvement in 2023 but the good news is that shouldn't be too much of a problem with the players returning for the Razorbacks. Starting in the backfield, quarterback and running back KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders should combine to be a dynamic duo after both coming off very strong seasons. To add on the dynamic backfield, they should have a strong offensive line in front of them as well to lead the way. For this Arkansas team to see real improvement the defense will need to significantly improve as it was last in the SEC as it gave up just over 30 points a game. Like every other program the Razorbacks will turn to the portal to add immediate improvements. Upfront new faces like Trajan Jeffcoat and John Morgan should supplement the pass rush while USF transfer Antonio Grier should play big piece with the linebackers and be an early contributor. They are also returning an All-SEC cornerback with Dwight McGlothern. However I don’t know if the new faces on defense will be able to get them over the bump and have them finishing just below their win total with a record of 7-5.

Alabama (10.5 wins)

Previous Season Record: 11-2

Key Players: RB Jase McClellan, WR Jermaine Burton, DE Tim Smith, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

Anything short of an SEC championship is a disappointment at this point for the Alabama Crimson Tide and unacceptable for Saban and his staff. Alabama is gunning for the top spot in 2023 and certainly will have the tools to do so. Despite losing guys like Bryce Young and Will Anderson there is never a shortage of talent with Alabama, rather just a lack of experience that is leaving the Tide with a few question marks coming into the season. The biggest being the quarterback battle with Tyler Buchner, Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson. Whoever comes out on top should be more than serviceable for Alabama as each option brings their own toolset to the offense. Looking to the rest of the offense it should be run heavy and return to an older version of Alabama before the days of Bryce Young where it will look to wear teams down over four quarters and really enforce their dominance. The defense is in a very similar boat as they are trying to replace 58.5 tackles for a loss and 34.5 sacks from the past three seasons as it will take few players to replace the presence that Will Anderson had against their opponents. There is however starpower in the secondary with Kool-Aid McKinstry as he will be the captain of the back unit in which they too will look for an immediate impact from the transfers who should add solid depth to an already talented Bama defense. Though there may be some question marks with this Bama squad, Saban doesn’t know how to lose and will prepare this team in order to compete for an SEC title. I like the Tide to finish with a record of 12-0 and win the SEC East and set up a much anticipated matchup between Alabama and Georgia.

SEC Football: Predicting Win Totals for 2023 Season (SEC West)

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