The Biggest Surprise Teams of College Football (so far)

We're about a month into the season, and with most teams four or five games in, we're starting to get a clearer picture of where everyone stands. While some teams have been major disappointments, others have quickly exceeded expectations, proving they're better than many anticipated for 2024.

Unlv rebels

Photo by Ed Zurga

As we approach the midpoint of the season, it's already been a wild ride for the UNLV football program. After finishing 9-5 in 2023—marking the Rebels’ best season since the 1970s—expectations were relatively high for 2024. Despite losing a significant portion of their production, their preseason win total was set at 7.5, and early matchups against Big 12 opponents gave fans a chance to see just how much the team had improved during the offseason.  UNLV wasted no time making a statement, dominating Houston 27-7 in the opener and following that up with a 23-20 upset victory on the road at Kansas. At 3-0 and ranked in the Top 25 of the Coaches' Poll, the Rebels were in legitimate playoff conversations.  However, after all of this success, starting quarterback Matthew Sluka announced his decision to sit out the rest of the season due to an NIL dispute.

Sluka’s decision to redshirt and sit out, citing "representations that were not upheld," shocked the college football world. With UNLV on a roll, having secured two Big 12 wins and climbing the rankings, this sudden development threatened to derail their season. Many assumed the Rebels' momentum would grind to a halt. However, this past Saturday, they proved everyone wrong. Despite the adversity, the Rebels dismantled a solid Fresno State team, cruising to a 59-14 win. Backup quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams stepped up in a big way, completing 81% of his passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns.

While losing Sluka is a blow, particularly to their depth, the Rebels have shown they remain a serious contender for the Group of Five bid in the College Football Playoff. Both their offensive and defensive metrics are solid—they rank in the top 40 across most categories—and they’ve demonstrated they’re a well-coached, disciplined team that avoids costly mistakes. Ranking third in the nation with a +2.3 turnover margin per game and having already secured a close win over Kansas, UNLV is proving they can handle pressure situations.  Looking ahead, the Rebels still have some key games to win if they want to secure the Group of Five’s Playoff spot. A home matchup against Syracuse next week is a chance to add a third win over a Power Four opponent, and their showdown with Boise State could very well be a playoff elimination game in Las Vegas.

Indiana hoosiers

Photo by James Rush

Indiana isn’t exactly known as a football powerhouse.  The Hoosiers have never won double digit games in a season and after Tom Allen put together three straight losing seasons, Indiana moved on and hired former James Madison Head Coach Curt Cignetti.  Cignetti has come in and immediately sparked a fire within the Indiana football program.  He brought in over 30 transfers, many who played for him at James Madison, and it looks like the program is turning around.  Not only are the Hooisers undefeated, but they are absolutely dominating opponents.  After starting 2-0 against lesser competition, the Hoosiers made a statement in their Big Ten opener, going on the road and crushing UCLA 42-13. They followed that up with a 42-28 victory at home against Maryland, and now find themselves ranked 23rd in the country.

Other than their 31-7 win in the season opener, the Hoosiers have scored at least 42 points in every game. The offense, led by transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke from Ohio, has been electric. Rourke is currently top three in the conference in nearly every major passing category, and Indiana’s offense ranks third nationally in average PPA (Predicted Points Added).  

This team is for real, and it might be time to consider them as legitimate contenders for the College Football Playoff. While the road ahead certainly gets tougher, it’s not impossible. The upcoming Homecoming game against Nebraska will be crucial, as will the November 9th showdown at home against Michigan. If the Hoosiers can pull off a win—or maybe even two—against those teams, they could be dancing into the Playoff conversation in 2024.

Byu Cougars

Photo by Jarren Wilkey 

Coming out of nowhere, the BYU Cougars are undefeated, have three road wins, and are 2-0 in Big 12 play.  Preseason, the Cougars were picked to finish 13th as myself and many others assumed BYU would fall down to the basement of the Big 12 standings.  However, it has been quite the opposite in 2024.  

After a 3-0 start, highlighted by a gritty 18-15 road win against SMU, the Cougars seized their moment on the national stage.  Facing a top-15 Kansas State team, BYU forced three turnovers and rode that momentum to an emphatic 38-9 victory. They followed it up with another road win as underdogs against Baylor, pushing their record to 5-0 and earning a spot in the Top 25 for the first time since 2021.  

Despite their unbeaten start, BYU hasn’t exactly been the model of efficiency. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been solid but unspectacular, posting an average QBR of 67. He also leads the team in rushing with a modest 156 yards. While the Cougars' 5-0 record is impressive, I believe they’re due for some serious regression and aren’t serious Big 12 contenders just yet. 

For instance, in their win against Kansas State, the Wildcats posted an offensive success rate of 50%, compared to just 40% for BYU, and finished with a post-game win expectancy of 65%. This means that if the game were played 100 times with the same stats, Kansas State would win 65 of those games. The Cougars have been fortunate with turnovers and some favorable bounces and while I don’t think that is sustainable, we will see if the Cougars can keep the momentum going for the rest of this season.  

Illinois Fighting illini

Photo by USAToday

Similar to Indiana, the Fighting Illini aren’t typically known for their football success. Since their Rose Bowl appearance in 2007, the Illini hadn’t won more than seven games in a season—until Bret Bielema arrived in 2021. After his hiring, Illinois finished 8-5 in 2022, and although they had a down year last season with low expectations heading into 2024, the Illini are back in a big way.

First, they took down a ranked Kansas team in Week 2. Then, they followed that up with a thrilling 31-24 overtime upset on the road against 22nd-ranked Nebraska. Most recently, they went toe-to-toe with a top-10 Penn State team in a primetime white-out game. Although they ultimately lost 21-7, the game was closer than the score indicates.  Illinois proved they can compete at a high level and deserve to be taken seriously as a top-25 caliber team.

Quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been a key factor in their success. With 11 touchdowns—tied for the most in the Big Ten—and just one interception (thrown last week), Altmeyer has shown significant growth in his second year as the starter. He’s making smart decisions, and having two elite receivers like Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin is certainly a quarterback’s best friend. 

While Franklin has yet to score this season, he’s been a reliable target, making critical catches in key moments—like in the Kansas game, where his plays made a huge difference. On the other hand, Bryant has been a touchdown machine, snagging six scores and racking up over 300 receiving yards, solidifying his status as one of the top wideouts in the Big Ten.  Looking ahead, Illinois still faces tough matchups against Michigan and Oregon, but if they can navigate the remainder of their schedule unscathed, the Illini could be a dark horse for one of those final spots in the College Football Playoff.