What to take away from Week Four

After another action-packed week of college football, filled with thrilling matchups and unexpected outcomes, let's dive into the biggest takeaways from week four’s slate of games. Here's what stood out the most.

The Big 12 runs through the state of utah

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Going into one of the games of the year in the Big 12, everybody was wondering about the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising.  While all signs pointed to him playing, Utah instead opted to start true freshman Isaac Wilson on the road at Oklahoma State.  While Wilson certainly didn’t light the world on fire, the Utes didn’t need him to carry the load. Running back Micah Bernard stole the show, racking up over 180 yards on 25 carries. Utah’s defense also lived up to its elite reputation, holding Oklahoma State's star running back Ollie Gordon to just f42 yards and forcing the benching of starting quarterback Alan Bowman. Though the final score read 22-19, the Utes’ dominance on the field was clear. 

Elsewhere in the state of Utah, the BYU Cougars came out of nowhere and shocked Kansas State 38-9.  Coming off an emotional home win over  Coming off an emotional home win over Arizona, many expected Kansas State to cruise to a win.  However, it was quite the opposite result.  While Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has been electric on the ground all season, his struggles in the passing game finally caught up to him. Johnson threw two interceptions, and the Wildcats' passing PPA (predicted points added) dipped below zero for the night. A pivotal scoop-and-score by BYU in the second quarter gave them a 10-6 lead, and they never looked back, improving to 4-0 on the season.

While BYU certainly impressed and surprised, I still think Utah is the clear favorite in the Big 12.  BYU may have capitalized on Kansas State’s three turnovers, but the Wildcats actually finished with a 65% post-game win expectancy, according to CollegeFootballData.com, meaning that with the same stats, they’d likely win most of the time. Utah, on the other hand, completely dominated Oklahoma State on the road, with their backup quarterback.  The Utes are operating at a different level this season, and their upcoming rivalry matchup with BYU could not only decide the Big 12 but potentially have College Football Playoff implications as well.

Michigan can still make the playoff

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Just as the college football world was ready to write off Michigan, the Wolverines pulled off a stunning upset over USC in week four.  The key to the turnaround? A quarterback switch from Davis Warren to Alex Orji. Instead of trying to force a passing game that was clearly hurting them, Michigan leaned into Orji’s strengths. Although he only completed 7 of 12 passes for just 32 yards, the offense looked far more dynamic with him under center.  At least with Orji in there, the defense has to worry about the quarterback run game, which opened up holes for running back Kalel Mullings who had 159 yards and two touchdowns on the day, solidifying his place as one of the top running backs in the nation.

This is also the most impressive performance from the Michigan defense so far this season.  Will Johnson’s game-changing pick-six stole the headlines, but his impact went beyond that. USC quarterback Miller Moss was clearly hesitant to throw in Johnson’s direction, effectively taking away half the field for the Trojans.  Also on the defensive line, USC had trouble running the ball the entire game.  On the defensive line, Michigan stifled the run all game long. While USC’s running back Woody Marks may have hit 100 yards, 65 of those came on a single play, and he averaged fewer than three yards on his other 12 carries. By shutting down the run, Michigan forced Moss to throw a staggering 51 times, a recipe for inefficiency that ultimately helped secure the Wolverines’ upset victory.

Oklahoma has serious offensive problems

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While the final score may have only been 25-15, the gap between Oklahoma and Tennessee on Saturday night was evident. To be blunt, Oklahoma has serious offensive problems and I’m not sure they can be fixed.  Let’s get one thing straight—the defense is not the problem. In fact, the defense is quite good.  The Vols, one of the top rushing teams in the nation, were held to under three yards per carry. Oklahoma also piled up nine tackles for loss and three sacks, doing everything they could to keep the Sooners in the game. Unfortunately, the offense didn’t come close to matching that effort.

The biggest concern with Oklahoma's offense, in my opinion, is the offensive line.  In the offseason, the Sooners lost several key linemen, both to the draft and the transfer portal, and to address that, they went heavy in the portal to rebuild the unit.  Well, it doesn’t seem to be working. Tennessee's defense dominated, racking up 11 tackles for loss, three sacks, and an eye-popping front-seven havoc rate of over 22%. The Sooners simply couldn’t block the Volunteers, and it’s hard to see how they’ll compete with the top teams on their schedule with this struggling group.  To make matters worse, they're dealing with significant injuries at receiver. Nic Anderson returned Saturday night, only to end up in street clothes by the end of the first quarter, and Jalil Farooq, who was expected to be a starter, has been out with a foot injury since week one. 

Both of those issues contribute to another major problem for the Sooners offense–the quarterback position.  After losing Dillon Gabriel to the transfer portal, Head Coach Brett Venables and everybody else around the Oklahoma program was quick to say Jackson Arnold would step in and maybe even be better than Gabriel.  While I don’t place all the blame solely on Arnold, he has not lived up to expectations so far.  After a rough outing against Tennessee, where he threw for just 54 yards on 16 attempts including an interception, Arnold was benched in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.  Hawkins came in and added a spark, completing 11 of 18 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown.  While it is unclear who the starter will be moving forward, Hawkins' mobility behind a shaky offensive line may give him the edge. With the line's struggles and Arnold's inconsistent play, Hawkins' dual-threat ability could be the change this Oklahoma offense needs to find some rhythm.

Is Clemson’s offense fixed?

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After a lackluster week one performance against top-ranked Georgia, many were quick to write off quarterback Cade Klubnik and this Clemson offense.  However, back-to-back weeks of offensive dominance have proven that writing them off was premature. While Klubnik struggled against Georgia, he was nothing short of exceptional in Clemson's win over NC State. He completed 16 of 24 passes for over 200 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 70 yards and a rushing score.  In his second year under Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley, Klubnik looks much more comfortable, and it's clear he's elevating this offense beyond what we saw last season.

While Cade Klubnik’s improvement has been notable, Clemson’s run game and offensive line have also stepped up. The Tigers averaged over eight yards per carry, led by Phil Mafah, who amassed over 100 yards on just seven attempts. Also, Clemson’s rushing PPA was a ridiculous 0.872, meaning they essentially added nearly a point per rushing attempt against NC State’s defense.  On the flip side, it could be a long season for NC State. While they managed a couple of late touchdowns in garbage time, it didn’t mask the obvious struggles on both sides of the ball, as they found themselves in a 28-0 hole by the end of the first quarter. While Clemson appears to be trending upward with lots of hope for the season, the Wolfpack may have to focus on simply reaching bowl eligibility in 2024.