Recently, on July 1, many long-anticipated conference realignment moves finally became official.  Texas and Oklahoma are now members of the SEC, SMU has joined the ACC, and several other moves, like Washington and Oregon to the Big Ten, will become official in August.  With these new moves and a reimagined college football landscape, how will each of these teams fare in their first season in their new conferences?  First, we will start with the ACC and the Big 12.   

ACC:

California

Moving into the ACC, the California Golden Bears will be an interesting team to watch in 2024.  I think when you talk about California, you have to start with the offense.  The quarterback battle should be something that will be interesting to follow into the fall.  Fernando Mendoza returns after being their starter for the majority of the year.  While he didn’t light the world on fire with just 14 touchdowns (TD) and 10 interceptions (INT), he still brings valuable experience at the most crucial position. However, he will have to compete with North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers, who threw for over 3,000 yards and 29 TDs to just 5 INTs.  No matter who earns the starting job, this offense will rely on the running game. With star running back Jayden Ott returning after gaining over 1,300 yards last season and Old Dominion transfer Kadarius Callaway joining the team, the Golden Bears could have one of the best ground games in the conference.  Defensively, there are certainly more issues to be found.  They do return a decent amount of starters on the defensive side of the ball, but when you were as bad as they were last season, how good really is returning production?  Nevertheless, the key for the Golden Bears will be to get through the first half of the season without accumulating too many injuries or bad losses. Most of their coin-flip, winnable games come in the back half of the schedule, and to reach a bowl game, they will need to be successful during that stretch.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-5

Stanford

There was a time in relatively recent history when Stanford was a college football powerhouse.  In the early 2010’s with Jim Harbaugh and the early days of David Shaw, the Cardinal were a force to be reckoned with and consistently found themselves competing with the top teams in the country.  Despite that, in the new era of college football with NIL and more importantly, the transfer portal, Stanford is now one of the toughest places to win in the country.  However, after hiring Troy Taylor from Sacramento State last offseason, I do think Stanford is moving in the right direction.  Going into 2024, Stanford returns most of their production on both offense and defense.  Quarterback Ashton Daniels and receiver Elic Ayomanor headline the offense which should be much improved.  Unfortunately for Stanford, while I do think they are moving in the right direction, they aren’t quite there yet and with their schedule, will most likely only be favored in two, maybe three games this season.

Floor: 3-9

Ceiling: 6-6

SMU

SMU is probably the most intriguing of the three newcomers in the ACC.  After going 11-3 and winning the AAC last year, they come into the conference with a lot of momentum and talent.  Quarterback Preston Stone returns after a brutal leg injury ended his great 2023 season, during which he put up just under 3,200 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.  The running backs are set to be the perfect complement to Stone, with all three of their top rushers returning, led by Jaylan Knighton, who ran for over 700 yards and seven touchdowns last year.  Defensively, SMU should be solid as well.  Star defensive end Elijah Roberts returns after putting up double-digit sacks last season.  They also return a great deal in the secondary and linebacker core as well.  While this all sounds promising, I certainly have my doubts about SMU in the trenches. They took in a significant number of transfers on both the offensive and defensive lines and are stepping up in competition from the AAC to the ACC. While it's possible that SMU could be a contender in the ACC, I think it may take some time to adjust on the lines of scrimmage before they find serious success.

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 9-3

Big 12:

Arizona State

While I do love Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State may be in for a tough transition into the Big 12.  Not that the Big 12 is a huge step up from the old Pac-12, but Arizona State’s roster just isn’t what it has been in the past.  Offensively, quarterback Sam Leavitt transfers in from Michigan State and is poised to be the starter moving forward.  While I like Leavitt’s potential long-term, he has very little experience and you can expect him to go through ups and downs in his first season as a starter.  The receiver room also took a hit from the transfer portal, losing last year's leading receivers Elijah Badger to Florida and Jalin Conyers to Texas Tech.  Running back Cam Skattebo who ran for 800 yards last season returns as a bright spot on the offense, but it is bleak for the most part.  Defensively, the Sun Devils are expected to improve from last year but are heavily relying on transfers to fill the gaps left by departures.  Their schedule doesn't favor the Sun Devils either. Drawing all of the preseason top-five teams from the Big 12 and facing a sneaky tough non-conference slate will make a bowl game appearance unlikely in 2024.

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 5-7    

Arizona

Coming off one of their best seasons in recent history, I think Arizona is poised to be contenders in the 2024 season.  Despite losing Head Coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, returning quarterback Noah Fifita and wideout Tetairoa McMillan will be a massive boost to an offense that will undoubtedly be one of the best in the Big 12.  While losing Fisch certainly hurts, I believe new coach Brent Brennan from San Jose State will pick up right where Fisch left off and is a quality replacement.  In addition, I love the hiring of Dino Babers as Offensive Coordinator who may try and get the Wildcats offense moving at an even faster tempo.  However, how far Arizona goes will depend on their defense and whether it improves in 2024. While they have a solid linebacker corps with Justin Flowe and Jacob Manu, their defensive line is filled with transfers. Their success will greatly depend on how well these transfers adjust and perform.  They do have tough road games early in the season against Utah and Kansas State, but if everything clicks, Arizona could find themselves in Dallas for the Big 12 Championship at the end of the season.    

Floor: 7-5

Ceiling: 11-1

Colorado

In a time that has seen Colorado gain the most national attention it has gotten in years, they now leave the Pac-12 to join the Big 12 conference.  Although I have my own reservations about some aspects of how Coach Deion Sanders runs things, there's also no denying that the Buffaloes will be improved in 2024.  Coming off a 4-8 season with an electric offense and a horrific defense, I think the team will show similar characteristics this year but with improvements on both sides.  Offensively, quarterback Shedeur Sanders returns looking to solidify himself as a first round pick in next year's draft. He will be throwing to arguably one of the best receiving corps in the country, led by potential top pick Travis Hunter, who will play both ways again in 2024.  They also return Jimmy Horn Jr., who put up over 500 yards and 6 TDs last season, as well as transfer portal addition Will Sheppard, who led Vanderbilt with over 680 yards and 8 TDs in 2023.  Defensively, I like their linebackers, returning Trevor Woods and adding an intriguing transfer from Kentucky in Keaton Wade.  They also should have a solid secondary with good safety play and great starters at cornerback with Travis Hunter and Preston Hodge.  The question with this defense will be depth and if the players behind the starters can pull their weight effectively.  Schedule wise, the Buffaloes certainly do not have it easy.  Their non-conference schedule is sneakily tough and it makes me wonder, why do teams still schedule North Dakota State?  However, if they improve like I think they will, reaching a bowl game is a realistic goal in year two of the Deion era.

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 7-5

Utah

Utah is probably the team best positioned to succeed in their new conference.  Voted as preseason Big 12 favorites, the Utes are expected to come in and be great right away.  I fully agree with this, and I think the Utes' goal should be to win the Big 12 and secure that coveted first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.  Offensively, they bring back quarterback Cam Rising after his season-ending ACL injury in the 2023 Rose Bowl.  Rising is an awesome quarterback when he’s on the field and behind a solid offensive line, should elevate this offense to where it was in 2021 and 2022.  Defensively, under Kyle Whittingham and Morgan Scalley, it's almost always a safe bet that Utah will be excellent, and it appears they will continue that trend in 2024.  The defensive line and linebacking corps appear to be in great shape, returning all-conference level starters at most positions.  While the secondary does pose some questions, it should still be solid led by cornerback Zemiah Vaughn.  On top of all this, Utah may have one of the easiest schedules in the conference.  They dodge Kansas and Kansas State, and get a lot of their tough games at home, a place where they are 18-1 since 2020.  I have their floor at 9-3, but honestly if they stay healthy, I have a hard time seeing this team win less than 10 games. 

Floor: 9-3

Ceiling: 12-0