Big Ten Football: Predicting Win Totals for 2023 Season
Creator: Kirk Irwin
Michigan- 10.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 13-1
Impact Players: RB/UTL Donovan Edwards, LB Junior Colson, OL Trevor Keegan, DL Mason Graham
Michigan ended their storybook season just a few plays (and calls) away from making it to the National Championship after an all time classic with TCU. Despite losing the battle, they proved themselves to be a serious program and contender for not only the Conference Champions, but National Champions. They are looking to start right where they left off as they are returning players like quarterback JJ McCarthy and running backs Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum on the offensive side of the ball as well as linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett on the defensive side of the ball. However, as hard as it is to reach the top it’s even harder to stay there. This season will be interesting to see if Michigan will be able to maintain control of the Big Ten and ward off Ohio State for consecutive years. However strong this Michigan team is, I see them struggling at points throughout the year while eventually finishing 10-2 and being under their win total
Ohio State- 10.5 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 11-2
Impact Players: WR Marvin Harrison, S Lathan Ranson, CB Denzel Burke, RB TreVeyon Henderson
What we will see with Ohio State this fall is the definition of ‘reloading’ rather than ‘rebuilding’. Despite losing first round quarterback CJ Stroud, Ohio State still places two of the top five Big Ten Heisman Candidates with wide receiver Marvin Harrison and quarterback Kyle McCord. Marvin Harrison is an obvious candidate but the belief in Kyle McCord is attributed to Ryan Day’s previous success as well as a successful spring from McCord. On the defensive side of the ball they will have to have a little bit more consistency to match the offense’s success but will certainly have the tools to do so. Considering that Ohio State finished their previous season with back to back losses, this will be a team inspired looking to reclaim the status they’ve held in the Big Ten conference for several years. They have an interesting non-conference opponent with Notre Dame but besides that I see the Buckeyes tying up loose strings in the Big Ten and winning the conference finishing 12-0.
Penn State- 9.5 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 11-2
Impact Players: OLB Abdul Carter, CB Kalen King, QB Drew Allar, WR Malik McClain
Michigan and Ohio State will be tough and Penn State will need a few things to happen to make it to Indianapolis, but they will still be a dangerous team in 2023. Unlike some of their opponents Penn State is returning several key pieces, starting with young but experienced running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen who had very productive rookie years combining for 22 touchdowns. However, all eyes will be on quarterback Drew Allar who has received quite a bit of hype and is finally ready to step into the spotlight of Happy Valley and move on from the Sean Clifford era. There is already quite a bit of pressure on Allar as expectations are high for the Lions so it will be interesting how this plays out. Considering the returning of core pieces and the arrival of key new players I see this as a year where Penn State jumps over the hump in the Big Ten East and finishes 11-1.
Wisconsin- 8.5 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 7-6
Impact Players: LB Maema Njongmeta, QB Tanner Mordecai, OLB/S Hunter Wohler, RB Braelon Allen
The Badgers should be right beside the Hawkeyes as a heavy contender to win the Big Ten West as they look to usher in the Luke Fickell era. They return a talented crew of returners on both sides of the both and have added a few impact players through the transfer portal. The first obviously being Braelon Allen who has consistently been one of the best running backs in the country while on the defensive side they return leading tackler linebacker Maema Njongmeta. New faces included transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai from SMU and two new receivers that look to make an immediate impact, Bryson Green and CJ Williams. I like the Badgers to bounce back nicely this year and make a run for the Big Ten title finishing 10-2 and hitting the over on their win total easily.
Iowa- 7.5 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 8-5
Impact Players: CB/UTL Cooper Dejean, S Xavier Nwankpa, QB Cade McNamara, RB Kaleb Johnson
Last season Iowa was a competent offense away from going 10-2 and cruising into the Big Ten title game despite their cross division games including Michigan and Ohio State. They instead finished 7-5 and just missed the Big Ten Championship, however the success they did see in 2022 was in large part due to their stellar defense which they hope to bring into the 2023 season. Despite losing players such Riley Moss and Jack Campbell, they return several key players such as defensive back Cooper Dejean, and bring in transfer portal linebacker Nick Jackson from Virginia. However, the offense will dictate the success of the season with all eyes on Cade McNamara to provide a spark to a beyond stagnant Hawkeye offense. With a reloading defense and rebuilding offense as well as a favorable schedule, Iowa should see success on Saturdays and see them hitting the over on their win total finishing 10-2.
Maryland- 7 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 8-5
Impact Players: QB Taulia Tagovailoa, LB Jaishawn Barham, LB Ruben Hyppolite II
One thing that is looking incredibly bright for this Maryland football team is their schedule. Their first three weeks of the season are a cakewalk and then open up conference play with two struggling Big Ten programs, MSU and Indiana respectively. If Maryland can continue to grow on what they accomplished last year, a season where they won eight games and lost two games with Michigan and Purdue by combined nine points, then there is a lot of potential for the Terrapins. With that potential, there is also a lot of room for error as their schedules tightens down the stretch with Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. With veteran quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and the addition of receivers Kaden Prather and Tyrese Chambers from the portal boosts this offense. Looking down the stretch however it will be difficult for the Terrapins to reach their win total and see them finishing under with a record of 5-7.
Minnesota- 6.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 9-4
Impact Players: LB Cody Lindenberg, S Tyler Nubin, WR Chris Autman-Bell, QB Athan Kaliakmanis
Minnesota has proven that it is possible for them to compete in the Big Ten West as Head Coach PJ Fleck has made them a relevant program once again ‘contenders’ year in and year out. He brought them his first eleven victory win in several years and beat the in-conference rivals, however they are yet to clear that last hump as true contenders in the Big Ten. However this year will be especially hard considering they are losing a dynamic duo with Tanner Morgan and Mohamed Ibrahim who have been the backbone of the Minnesota offense for the past several years. They’ll need to find production elsewhere and open up their passing attack which targets like Chris Autman-Bell and Brevyn Spann-Ford will help with. They also have portal recruits such as Corey Crooms and Elijah Spencer who bring experience and talent. However much this team improves during fall camp, I don’t see it being enough to be contenders in the West and see them finish .500 at 6-6.
Illinois- 6.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 8-5
Impact Players: TE Tip Reiman, WR Pat Bryant, QB Luke Altmyer
What Brett Bielema has done with the Illinois football program has been nothing short of impressive. He was given a 2-6 football team and made them into contenders in the Big Ten West before they eventually fell short to Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl. However, this turnaround was led by some key players who will be hard to replace such as quarterback Tommy Devito and running back Chase Brown as well as All-American cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Losing players like this makes it very difficult for teams to repeat their success, however they are looking to outside players to improve this roster rapidly. They started rebuilding by adding Ole Miss QB, Luke Altmyer, who will have some returning weapons such as Isiah Williams and Pat Bryant. However, I believe this unproven roster will struggle at times throughout the year and have difficulty finding an identity. Looking at the schedule I would take the under with Illinois to finish 5-7.
Nebraska- 6.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 4-8
Impact Players: QB Jeff Sims, RB Anthony Grant, LB Luke Reimer
Despite constant underachievement from the Cornhuskers over the past several seasons it’s hard not to see the potential in the Nebraska program. What Matt Rhule did with the Baylor program before his stint with the Panthers in the NFL, it’s reasonable to place some expectations on this Cornhusker squad. The O-Line gained invaluable experience and developed well in the spring, however still has a lot of room to grow in the fall. The team also hit the portal hard with key skill players such as Billy Kemp IV from Virginia and from Arik Gilbert from Georgia arriving hoping to improve the receiving core. However, the Cornhuskers will face a tough schedule to start the year with Minnesota and a Deion Sanders led Colorado squad. Despite improvement, I would still take the under with Nebraska sitting at 6-6.
Purdue- 5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 8-6
Impact Players: RB Devin Mockobee, QB Hudson Card, TE Garret Miller, FS Cam Allen
There will not be any overwhelming expectations for first-year Head Coach Ryan Walters unlike one might expect for a coach who is taking over a team that made it to the conference championship just last year. Aside from the fact the Boilermakers made the championship with fairly unusual circumstances, they still know what they lost in quarterback Aidan O’Connell and wide receiver Charlie Jones and replacing them will be no easy feat. However, like most teams Purdue hopes to reap the benefits of the transfer portal with players like quarterback Hudson Card, who will likely start the year for the Boilermakers. The defense will need to see improvement however if they hope to maintain success in 2023. There is a lot of work to be done as they gave up just above 27 points a game last year and return only four starters. A tough non-conference with two power opponents makes their job harder but I see Purdue being under their win total finishing 4-8.
Michigan State- 4.5 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 5-7
Impact Players: QB Noah Kim, TE Maliq Carr, DT Derrick Harmon, EDGE Tunmise Adeleye
The Michigan State football program was unlike anything we have ever seen last year. Just a year removed from finishing 11-2 and a win over Pitt in the Peach Bowl, we saw an MSU program that struggled from start to finish. Things might not be so quick to turn around either for Head Coach Mel Tucker and the Spartans after quarterback Payton Thorne and wide receiver Keon Coleman took to the portal after spring practices leaving an already struggling Spartan offense with a huge question mark. Thankfully the Spartans gained key players from the portal that hope to improve a defensive unit that gave up a little over 30 points in Big Ten play last year. Luckily what the Spartans do have on their side is four straight home games to open the season, all of which are attainable games with the toughest being a non-conference opponent, Washington. I see the Spartans hitting the over with their total and repeating another record of 5-7.
Rutgers- 4.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 4-8
Impact Players: DE Aaron Lewis, CB Max Melton, LB Deion Jennings, RB Samuel Brown
Rutgers is another program that hopes to return to their glory days in the Big East era with Greg Schiano back with his second stint with the Scarlet Knights. With Schiano comes an above average defense that returns a lot of veteran players that hopes too prove they can perform against above average teams and their good performances aren’t limited to the mediocre teams of the Big Ten. What needs to improve and improve quickly is the offensive output. This started with the hiring of new Offensive Coordinator, Kirk Cirarrocca, who hopes to improve on the physicality on the offensive side of the ball and focus on a lone bright spot of the Rutgers offense, the running game. Schiano and his team will also face a tougher schedule in the Big Ten with opponents like Iowa and Wisconsin from the West and the gauntlet that is the East division. Due to this they will likely finish right under their win total at 4-8.
Indiana- 4 (Over)
Previous Season Record: 4-8
Impact Players: QB Tayven Jackson, WR Cam Camper, LB Aaron Casey, EDGE/OLB Andre Carter
After a difficult campaign that included several tough losses, Indiana is looking to recapture the magic from their 2020 run. The 2023 season will feature several new faces that look to make a positive impact on a team that had more than their fair share of struggles in 2022. Statistically, Indiana was one of the worst teams in pass defense and total defense. The additions from the portal hopes to bring new energy and life to a struggling defense, despite the new recruits for the defensive side of the ball this will be a team that is very reliant on their offense. Looking at the Hoosiers schedule however, there are still five to six winnable games for the Hoosiers with a key game being a neutral site match with Louisville at Lucas Oil. If things swing the Hoosiers way, I see this Indiana team being 5-7 and hitting the over on their win total.
Northwestern- 3.5 (Under)
Previous Season Record: 1-11
Impact Players: QB Ben Bryant, WR AJ Henning, OT Zachary Franks, LB Xander Mueller
The only redeemable factor of the 2022 Northwestern campaign is that it can’t get any worse for the Wildcats. Despite losing some high end talent to the transfer portal and NFL draft, Northwestern is bringing a more complete roster than the previous season with some much needed reinforcements from the transfer portal. In terms of reaching over their win total, it still won’t be an easy task as they start the season on the road in New Jersey with Big Ten play facing off against Rutgers. This will set the tone for the season as they will have to snag a few on the road as many of their favorable games with teams like Duke, Nebraska, and Illinois are all away from Evanston. Due to this I have the Wildcats sitting under their win total and finishing 3-9.