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The Upset of the Century: How Vanderbilt Took Down Alabama

Photo by Matthew Maxey

Prior to Saturday, October 5th, Vanderbilt was 0-60 against AP top-five ranked teams and 0-10 against number-one teams. Then, the impossible happened. Just a week after defeating Georgia 41-34 in another thrilling game, Alabama went on the road to Nashville and was stunned by the 2-2 Commodores in a 40-35 upset. While college football has seen some incredible upsets in the past two decades—like Appalachian State over Michigan and Stanford shocking USC, both in 2007—none are bigger than Vanderbilt finally making its presence felt on the national stage.

Right from the kickoff, Vanderbilt set the tone, driving 75 yards in 10 plays for a touchdown on the opening drive. They followed that up with a Randon Fontenette pick-six to take a 13-0 lead just seven minutes into the game. Despite the early defensive score, the rest of the game was dominated by the offenses. There were only four punts in total—two by each team—and 75 combined points.

After a Jam Miller rushing touchdown, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia led the Commodores on a 17-play, 75-yard drive that featured a crucial fourth-down conversion and five third-down conversions, the last of which resulted in a Sedrick Alexander touchdown. A Vanderbilt field goal extended their lead, but Alabama responded quickly, going 83 yards in just nine plays to cut the deficit to 23-14 as they headed into the locker room.

Photo by Steve Roberts

Alabama received the ball to start the second half and wasted no time, scoring in just five plays, capped by a Jalen Milroe rushing touchdown. Despite the loss, Milroe had an excellent performance on Saturday, completing 18 of 24 passes for over 300 yards and accounting for two total touchdowns. It’s hard to place the blame for the defeat on him. Following the touchdown, the teams traded punts, but after an Alabama punt from their own end zone gave Vanderbilt great field position, the Commodores faced a pivotal 4th-and-1 on the Alabama 36.

Head Coach Clark Lea decided to roll the dice and go for it, a decision that paid off in a big way. Vanderbilt ran a play-action pass, and with pressure closing in from both sides, in a moment Commodore fans will remember forever, quarterback Diego Pavia launched a deep ball, perfectly placing it in wide receiver Junior Sherrill’s arms.

It was caught for a touchdown, giving Vanderbilt a 30-21 lead, and at that moment, the entire country was put on notice that this unthinkable upset might actually happen. Alabama responded quickly, with freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams continuing to impress by hauling in a 58-yard touchdown, narrowing the gap. But Vanderbilt wasn’t done. The Commodores marched right back down the field, and Diego Pavia made yet another remarkable play, dodging defenders to throw an option swing pass for what looked like another touchdown. Unfortunately, it was called back for holding, and Vanderbilt had to settle for a field goal.

Now, typically, this is where a potential upset slips away. Vanderbilt missed their chance to keep a two-possession lead, and now the top-ranked Crimson Tide would march down the field, take the lead, and never look back. But what happened was the exact opposite. Jalen Milroe was sacked, and in the process, fumbled the football, which was recovered by Vanderbilt. The stadium went ballistic and the Commodores' offense did what they’d done all day—drove down the field and capitalized with another Diego Pavia touchdown.

Pavia was absolutely unbelievable on Saturday. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns, while also adding 56 rushing yards. He was a lightning rod for Vanderbilt, leading them to likely the biggest win in school history.

Photo by Associated Press

With just three minutes left, Alabama punched in a touchdown to cut the lead to 40-35, setting the stage for a tense finish. Now, it was up to Diego Pavia once again. If he could lead the Commodores to just a couple of first downs, the game would be over, and history would be made. On the first play, disaster seemed imminent as Vanderbilt lost two yards. But on second down, Pavia delivered, finding Sedrick Alexander for a 19-yard gain. One final first down came on an eight-yard scramble by Pavia, and that was it.  The Commodores faithful stormed the field, tearing down the goalposts in celebration, as Vanderbilt had finally taken down Goliath.

Moving forward for Alabama, the season and dream of a National Championship are far from finished.  It is easy to forget that they just knocked off Georgia 41-34, and with the new 12-team Playoff, they can afford a loss like this and still get in.  However, that isn’t to say there are no concerns.  Upsets like this often involve fluky plays or calls, but that wasn't entirely the case here.  While Vanderbilt did benefit from two turnovers, they also won up front against Alabama.  They didn’t just scrape by — they finished the game with an 88% post-game win expectancy, according to CollegeFootballData.com, and held Alabama to under 100 rushing yards, a true testament to their dominance up front.

For Vanderbilt, this is a milestone victory, undoubtedly the biggest in school history. As Head Coach Clark Lea described it, "A hell of an arrival." Now, the Commodores head to Lexington to take on Kentucky, hoping to ride this momentum to a 4-2 record. While Vanderbilt may not be a top-25 team just yet, they are far better than anyone expected this season, and it's clear that Lea has this program trending in the right direction.