Cincinnati Bearcats: The Cinderella of the CFP
Head Coach Luke Fickell (right) and his Cincinnati Bearcats (AP)
If you have not been paying close attention this year, Cincinnati has been the "what-are-they-doing-here" team this season in the rankings. Fact is, while critics might disagree, the Bearcats deserve to be where they are and more. They have won 18/19 of their last games across this season and last. The Bearcats' lone loss came from Georgia Bulldogs, who is now known as the best team in the nation. One factor to remember about this Cincinnati team is that they have brought back nearly all their starters. Even Seniors have returned because of the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. This gives them NFL-aged players and some with NFL-type skills since they get an additional year. The fact that this team is not ranked higher than #6 is questionable but has some grounds. Let's look into Cinncinatti about why the committee has put them here, why they're right and wrong in some areas and how they can find a place in this year's playoff.
CFP executive director Bill Hancock (right) with the rest of the CFP committee (Ross Dellenger/Sports Illustrated)
Why did the playoff put them here
Experts in the media saw the Bearcats being placed at #6 in the initial CFP rankings as a good spot because of their schedule strength. While they did play a top 10 ranked Notre Dame in South Bend, the rest of their schedule has been pretty easy. Them struggling to win against lesser teams like Navy and Tulane did not do them any favors. Besides that, they have been pretty dominant in their schedule. They should look to go up this week because of #3 Michigan State losing to Purdue as they inch closer to the top 4.
Their reasoning and its implications
The fact of the matter is true. Cincinnati's strength of schedule is not helping them. If they wanted it to help them, they should have performed better against the lesser teams. The committee must realize that the two games in question against Tulane and Navy were against conference opponents that they play almost every year. These teams might not be great, but they know Cincinnati better than anyone on the Bearcats' non-conference schedule, whether they be great like #10 Notre Dame or lesser like Miami (Ohio). We see this phenomenon all the time with teams from Group of 5 or Power 5 conferences. Like Alabama, the Power 5 may have lesser opponents that are way better than Navy or Tulane. Still, the fact of the matter is, great teams struggle against lesser conference opponents, no matter how good the team is. The committee must look at it this way because they might regret it if they don't change their behavior before the final rankings. There is still plenty of time to review this phenomenon as the week progresses. However, if Cincinnati wins out and does it convincingly, in our eyes, they are in the top 4.
O’Brien award candidate Desmond Ridder rushing for a Touchdown vs Tulsa this past Saturday (Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer)
What can the Bearcats do from here?
Cincinnati does not fully control their destiny as they go into week 11. A lot needs the happen in the top 4 for them to slip in. One point of concern is not only what is in front of them but what is behind them. The Sooners at #8 who are undefeated could become a threat to the Bearcats. The Sooner's potential last four games (if they make the Big 12 Championship) is against 3 top 25 teams. Suppose the Sooners win out along with the Bearcats doing so. In that case, the committee might have a difficult decision to make if it comes down to these last two teams for the #4 spot after conference championship weekend. They might have to go with Oklahoma in this case because of the numerous top 25 wins. From here, Cincinnati needs to continue to keep its foot on the gas and be as perfect as it can. They should be rooting for Houston to get ranked as highly as possible to be a formidable conference championship opponent in the American to get the committee's attention while praying for the downfall of teams ahead like Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon. It'll be interesting to see this play out as we might see the first Group 5 team ever to make the playoff.