SEC Tournament Predictions

Mar 12

It’s tournament season, baby! That means it is time to predict who will come out on top in the SEC.

Round 1 Wednesday, MAarch 13

Game 1: No. 12 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Vanderbilt Commodores | 7 p.m. on SEC Network

The only matchup this season between these two teams took place on Tuesday, February 27, in Arkansas. That night, Vanderbilt came out with a close 85-82 victory.

Defeating the Razorbacks this time around will be more difficult, not only because the Razorbacks are looking for revenge but because the Commanders averaged the least amount of points in the SEC this season at 67.4. Their defense isn’t much better, giving up an average of 79.6 points a game. On the other hand, the Razorbacks averaged 77.7 points per game on offense this season and allowed an average of 79.6 points per game. With all that in mind, the Razorbacks should advance to the second round of the SEC tournament.

Game 2: No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Missouri Tigers | 9:30 p.m. on SEC Network

These teams played one game against each other this season on Saturday, January 6, in Missouri. That night, Georgia came out with a 75-68 victory.

However, pulling off the upset isn’t out of the question for a Tigers team that averaged the third least amount of points in the SEC this season at 72.6 points per game. On defense, the Tigers gave up an average of 76.6 points a game in the regular season, which was sixth worst in the SEC. On the other hand, the Bulldogs offense averaged 75 points per game this season and allowed an average of 74.7 points per game. On paper, this can be a back and forth game that the Tigers will pull off the upset in.

Second round -- Thursday, March 14

Game 3: No. 8 LSU Tigers vs. No. 9 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 1 p.m. on SEC Network

The LSU Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs played each other once this regular season. That game took place on Saturday, February 24, and the Bulldogs came out in the top 87-67 in Louisiana. However, this game will be played on neutral tournament ground, so neither team has the home court advantage.

LSU's offense heads into the SEC tournament ranked seventh in the SEC in average points per game, with 76.9 points. Their defense gave up an average of 74.8 points per game, which was the eighth worst in the SEC. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs averaged 75.3 points per game on offense this season and allowed an average of 69.6 points per game. On paper, this matchup favors Mississippi State. However, LSU is coming into the tournament as the winner of three of their last five, so momentum might be on their side. With that being said, LSU should win this game to advance to the Quarterfinals.

Game 4: No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 Arkansas Razorbacks | 3:30 p.m. on SEC Network

The Gamecocks and the Razorbacks have played each other once in the regular season, with the Gamecocks coming out on top 77-64 in Arkansas. Arkansas will have to pull off an upset against South Carolina if they want to advance.

This season, South Carolina’s offense was the second worst in the SEC, only averaging 72.5 points per game. It is fair to say their defense carried them to most of their wins, which will also need to be the case in this game. The Gamecocks should come out on top in this game and dance to the quarterfinals.

Game 5: No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels | 7 p.m. on SEC Network

In the regular season, the Aggies and Rebels met twice, and each team won one game. Their most recent matchup was on Saturday, March 9, and it saw the Aggies come out in the top 86-60 at Ole Miss. Previously, the teams met on Tuesday, January 27, with the Rebels beating the Aggies 71-68 in Reed Arena in Texas.

Since the teams will only be five days removed from their last meeting and Texas A&M will want to redeem themselves for losing at home earlier in the season, it’s hard to see the Aggies losing this game.

Game 6: No. 6 Florida Gators vs. N0. 14 Missouri Tigers | 9:30 p.m. on SEC Network

The Gators faced the Tigers twice in the regular season and beat them both times. Their most recent matchup was on Wednesday, February 28, and it saw the Gators defeat the Tigers 83-74 in Florida. It would be shocking to see the Gators lose to the Tigers in this game after defeating them by 9 points and 12 points, respectively. The Gators will be moving on to the quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals -- Friday, March 15

Game 7: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers vs. 8. LSU Tigers | 1 p.m. on ESPN

The Tigers and Volunteers only had one matchup this season at the Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, and the Volunteers came out victorious at 88-68. It would be the upset of the tournament if somehow the Tigers pulled off this victory after the Voulenteers’ dominant regular season. With that being said, Tennesee wins this game easily.

Game 8: No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks| 3 p.m. on ESPN

The Tigers and the Gamecocks played one regular season game that ended in a blowout 101-61 victory for the Tigers. This is no surprise, seeing as Auburn is the fourth-best scoring team in the SEC, averaging 83.5 points per game. However, South Carolina has been known to upset high-scoring teams such as the Kentucky Wildcats. Nevertheless, Auburn should still come out victorious in this matchup and be headed to the semi-finals.

Game 9: No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies | 7 p.m. on SEC Network

The Wildcats and Aggies met once this regular season on Saturday, January 13, at Reed Arena in Texas. In a game that ended up being the Aggies’ highest output of the season, they won 97-92. While that was a surprising outcome for some, anyone who watched Kentucky play in the first half of the season knew just how bad their defense was.

Entering the tournament, Kentucky’s defense is still the third worst in the SEC, but they have slightly improved throughout the rest of the regular season. On the other hand, Kentucky has the second-best scoring offense in the SEC, averaging 89.5 points per game. With the game being at Rupp Arena, Kentucky should get its win back and advance to the semifinals.

Game 10: No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Florida Gators | 9 p.m. on SEC Network

Alabama and Florida met once this regular season on Tuesday, March 5, at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Florida. In a game, the Gators won 105-87. This rematch will most likely also be high-scoring since Alabama has the worst-scoring defense in the SEC, and Florida has the fourth-worst-scoring defense in the SEC.

Taking all that into account, this game should be closer than their last meeting, but Florida should still edge it out and advance to the semifinals.

Semifinals -- Saturday, March 16

Game 11: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 4 Auburn Tigers | 1 p.m. on ESPN

The Volunteers and Tigers clashed once in the regular season on Wednesday, February 28, at the Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville. The Volunteers came out on top in that matchup 92-84. As can be seen from the final score, these two teams are pretty evenly matched.

However, if more evidence is needed, Aubrun finished fourth in offensive scoring in the SEC, averaging 83.5 points per game. Meanwhile, the Volunteers finished fifth in offensive scoring in the SEC, averaging 80.2 points per game. Defensively, the teams are also pretty well matched as Tennessee finished the season ranked second in the SEC in average points allowed with 67.7 points per game, and Auburn finished third, allowing an average of 68.5 points per game. As evenly matched as these two teams are, the Volunteers should come out on top again and advance to the SEC championship.

Game 12: No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 6 Florida Gators | 3 p.m. on ESPN

The Wildcats and Gators clashed twice in the regular season, with both games being close battles. Their first matchup took place on Saturday, January 6, at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center and saw the Wildcats nearly escape with an 87-85 victory. Their second game at Rupp Aren at the end of January was just as tense and saw the Gators come out victorious 94-91 in overtime. With a chance to go to the SEC championship on the line, this game will be even more tense than the previous two. That does not bode well for a young and inexperienced Kentucky team. I believe the pressure will be too much for Kentucky, and the Gators will win and head to the SEC championship.

SEC Tournament Championship Game -- Sunday, March 17

Game 13: No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 6 Florida Gators | 1 p.m. on ESPN

The Volunteers and Gators clashed once in the regular season on Wednesday, February 28, at the Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville. The Volunteers came out on top in that matchup 85-66. After getting blown out by 19, the Gators will be looking to seek revenge in the SEC Championship. Florida’s defense will need to suffocate the Volunteers’ high-powered offense if they want to become 2024 SEC champions. That has been a task that not many teams have been able to do, and the Gators’ offense most likely won’t outscore Tennessee’s. That means that Tennessee will be crowned the SEC champions in 2024.

Joseph Grassano