From the top seed all the way to the 10th spot in the West, the competition is stiff. The same amount of games separating the Boston Celtics from everyone else in the East is the gap between the top seed in the west and the middle of the play-in. As it has been in the past few years, the playoffs will be extremely matchup-dependent, with every team having the opportunity to make a deep run if the bracket breaks right. But what if it doesn’t? Here’s a look at the worst case scenario for each team currently seeded 1-6 in the West.

Minnesota Timberwolves- A Showdown With the Bayou Boys

No team has really had the Wolves’ number so far this season(although they’ve only played the Nuggets once), but the Pelicans split the season series with them. With the news of Karl-Anthony Towns’ meniscus injury still up in the air, Minnesota is going to depend even more on Anthony Edwards to carry the scoring load. The Pelicans are a scary dark horse team because while they have their deficiencies, they have a plethora of good perimeter defenders they can throw at a premier wing scorer in Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, Trey Murphy and in certain spots Brandon Ingram. That piece, along with a healthy Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, makes the Pelicans the team with the scariest potential as a playoff spoiler. A healthy Wolves team would be the favorites in this matchup, but KAT being out along with the defensive matchups put the series into serious contention.

Oklahoma City Thunder- Going to Los Angeles… At All

The Thunder are the youngest team in the NBA when weighing the minutes that each of their players play. Yet, they do have their deficiencies, most notably their interior presence and the fact that Chet Holmgren does not match up well with the premier bigs in the NBA. If they were unfortunate enough to face LeBron James and the Lakers in the first round, Anthony Davis would be licking his chops, looking to dominate as he has done in all four of their games this season, of which the Lakers won three. While the Clippers don’t have a prominent offensive big down low, they have one more top tier perimeter scorer than the Thunder have defenders to match up with. One would think that Luguentz Dort would guard Paul George and Jalen Williams would check Kawhi Leonard, but who guards James Harden? Putting that much on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s plate could jeopardize his offensive energy, and that could be the key to taking OKC down.

Denver Nuggets- An Appointment With the Slim Reaper

The Nuggets have at some points looked like the inevitable force they were in last year’s postseason. They’ve recaptured that vibe since the All-Star break, rattling off six straight wins until falling to the Phoenix Suns. That loss, even if it came in overtime, shines some light on the team’s concerns, especially on the defensive end. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are really good defenders, but teams continue to hunt Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray down the stretch of close games. Nobody in the NBA is better than that than Kevin Durant, and in close playoff games he does so with as much efficiency as anyone in the league. While nobody is concerned about the Nuggets early in the postseason, don’t be surprised if Phoenix’s offensive firepower pushes Nikola Jokić and Co. to the brink. 

LA Clippers- A Ticket to Luka’s Magic Show

Over the last five years, no team has given the Clippers as much trouble as Dallas, mostly because Luka Dončić can get whatever he wants against them every single time down the court. Now, both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are having their best seasons since the 2018-2019 campaign and represent arguably the best perimeter defensive duo in the West, but history is not in their favor. The more important part of this matchup is the non-All Star players on each squad. If the top two players on each side cancel each other out, can Tim Hardaway and the rest of the Mavs outplay James Harden and the Clippers’ bench? Regardless of who would win this potential series, an pre-Western Conference Finals exit for either raises very loud offseason questions that could impact them for years to come. 

New Orleans Pelicans- A Drag Race with Sacramento

The Kings are interesting because they can play in a lot of different ways, but they love to run, scoring in transition against non-set defenses. That playstyle matches up great against New Orleans because of the lineups they use the most often. Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson, and Naji Marshall for that matter, don’t play well in high paced games. They struggle to maintain energy running up and down the court when teams speed them up. That is exactly what the Kings want to do, and they have recently kicked it up into a higher gear as they try to escape the play-in tournament. Now, unless one of these teams makes a jump up the standings, this matchup won’t happen until later on and will require upsets, but stylistically, the Kings are hoping to run into Zion and the Pelicans as soon as possible.

Phoenix Suns- OK, We’ll C You Next Year

The Suns will likely be favored in their first round playoff series no matter who they draw, simply because of the potential fireworks in their starting five. But the issue with the Suns is their defense, or lack thereof. Jusuf Nurkic provides decent protection in the middle, but when your best perimeter defender is Royce O’Neale, you’ve got serious problems. SGA has cooked the Suns every time they’ve faced off, and could take it to another level in the postseason. That, combined with the complementary scoring of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, could prove fatal to the Suns’ championship aspirations. The Suns have time to figure things out, but in order to get where they want to go, they need to buy in on the defensive side of the ball at least somewhat.