NBA Offseason Winners and Losers

Biggest Loser: Toronto Raptors

I try to judge a team's offseason by whether it brings them closer or further to winning a title, whether that means putting together a team that can win or trading veteran players for young players or draft picks that can one day help them get there. It feels like everything Toronto has done this summer prevents them from accomplishing either. By refusing to trade Fred VanVleet this past season, Toronto had to watch him leave for nothing in free agency. And after trading a top-six protected 2024 first-round pick for Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline in a failed attempt to make the playoffs, the team was forced to re-sign him for $20 million a season to save face. The only notable additions Toronto has made are Dennis Schroeder and Jalen McDaniels. Neither player will make a major impact. This all seems to trap Toronto in the 9-11 conference seeding range; too good to add a worthwhile player in the draft while not good enough to make it past the play-in tournament. Toronto now faces another season in which one of its two best players will enter free agency, Pascal Siakam, but will do so without its first-round pick unless it ends up in the top six.

Biggest Winner: Boston Celtics

As a Sixers fan, I was slightly optimistic heading into the offseason, but everything changed when the Celtics traded Marcus Smart, salary filler, and a second-round pick for Kristaps Porzingis and two first-round picks. Not only did Kristaps average 23.2 points per game (PPG) and 8.4 rebounds per game (RPG) on about 50 percent shooting from the floor and 38.5 from three, but if you haven’t heard, the dude is 7 '3. With all the talk about small and fast-paced lineups over the past decade, it's still generally the teams that defend and rebound the best that end up the last team standing. While Marcus Smart will surely be missed, Kristaps is significantly better at virtually everything offensively and a perfect matchup for the Celtics to control the paint in potential playoff series against opponents who like to play at the rim like Giannis, Embiid, and Jimmy Butler. It was already difficult for teams to score inside against players like Robert Williams and Al Horford, so it's hard to imagine teams winning the paint-scoring differential against the Celtics very often this year. Losing Grant Williams will also hurt, but receiving three second-round picks and saving money will also help them in the long run, considering there just wasn’t much of a role for him with Tatum, Porzingis, and Horford competing for minutes at the same positions. Sam Hauser also looks ready to step into a bigger role as a sharpshooting specialist. Last year’s Celtics struggled to score when Tatum was off the floor, scoring at a bottom-five clip. This year the Celtics seem to be much more balanced and just flat-out better.

Loser: Houston Rockets

Like the Raptors, it's a little hard to figure out what Houston is doing. After finishing tied for the second-worst team in the league, Houston paid the 29-year-old point guard Fred VanVleet, who recently made his first all-star team, a $43 million average salary. That is likely the worst contract in the league already. They then proceeded to spend the fourth overall pick on another PG Amen Thompson, who is currently listed as the third-string PG behind VanVleet and Kevin Porter, who averaged 19.2 points and 5.7 assists last year. It wasn’t all bad for the Rockets however, as the team added three-and-D menace Dillon Brooks for a somewhat reasonable $20 million a year and stole Cam Whitmore, the Summer League MVP, with the 20th pick in the draft. The team overpaid Jock Landale to be the backup center, but with the addition of a veteran mentor in Jeff Green and a solid young nucleus, the team seems poised to move up in the standings. It may have been wiser for the Rockets to focus on taking in salary from other teams to receive some extra draft picks because, as of now, it still looks like the team is missing a franchise player who can carry them through the playoffs.

Winner: San Antonio Spurs

When you add the best draft prospect maybe ever, but at least since LeBron James in 2003, you win the offseason. I could go on about what else the Spurs did, but none of it matters. Victor Wembanyama in his absolute worst-case scenario will control games defensively, swatting shot attempts and grabbing 8-12 rebounds a game while dominating as a screener in the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop. Best case scenario the dude is a 7 '5 Kevin Durant cooking dudes every which way from all over the court with the aforementioned dominance defensively. If he’s even able to reach anything close to that, Wemby will finish as one of the 10 best players in NBA history. Hard to do much better than that with your offseason.

Loser: Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers didn’t necessarily get worse this summer, as the only losses were Shake Milton (the fourth guard), George Niang (a one-way sharpshooter), and Jaden McDaniels (an athlete who doesn’t bring any notable skills). However, they mishandled the Harden situation to the point where he requested a trade. The team also didn’t add anyone off the bench who can play the forward positions, although this could change if the team can add Kelly Oubre or P.J. Washington in free agency. Patrick Beverley can help in short stints off the bench and will provide solid locker-room leadership and accountability, but he’s not helping you beat the Celtics, Heat, or Bucks with his play. Mo Bamba can likewise help off the bench and still has a lot of untapped potential as a shot-blocker, rebounder, and three-point shooter, but he’s unlikely to beat out Paul Reed for backup minutes at the four or five positions. If Daryl Morey can swing Harden for another star, the offseason won’t be a total loss, but it’s unclear how he would do so at the moment with Portland likely uninterested in another aging star for Lillard and the Clippers so far seeming unwilling to part with Paul George. Even if Morey could pull one of those trades off without including anything else, it’s easy to forget that Harden’s playmaking elevated the efficiency and scoring numbers of Embiid, Maxey, and virtually every role player on the roster after he arrived in Philadelphia. While concerns over his inconsistencies against the Celtics are certainly legit, it appears strictly swapping him for another star is, at best a lateral move, and possibly catastrophic if all the team receives is a collection of role players.

Winner: Dallas Mavericks

A lot of people have widely varying opinions of Kyrie Irving, and some of those opinions of him are extremely negative. But his impact on the court is undeniable, and Dallas just brought him back for cheaper than Fred VanVleet. Last season's lineups with Irving and Doncic scored just under 122 points per 100 possessions, but the team was unable to generate enough stops to win half their games with the high-scoring duo. During the draft, Dallas was able to unload Davis Bertans awful contract while only moving down two spots from 10 to 12, where they took the athletic big man Dereck Lively. Lively will likely not play much this year as he sits behind a few veteran bigs but will fit nicely next to their star duo in the long term. The trade also created a traded player exception, which they then flipped for Richaun Holmes and the 24th pick, which they used on Oliveier-Maxence Prosper, a big wing who will instantly help the team defensively and in the transition while he develops offensively. Holmes will compete with Dwight Powell for the starting center role, and given his strengths as a shot blocker and roller, I would imagine he wins the role. The Mavericks then traded Reggie Bullock for Grant Williams in a sign-and-trade deal with the Celtics to add another solid three-and-D option. In free agency the Mavs also signed Seth Curry for cheap, giving the team an additional sharpshooter. The Mavericks seem to have a solid blend of defenders around Doncic and Irving this year and seem poised to rocket up the Western Conference standings.