The Ideal 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

The NBA draft lottery is an ingenious way to prevent tanking and keep the draft process interesting towards the end of the regular season. Anything can happen: Chicago has a 1.8% chance to land the first overall pick. In 2008, they had a 1.7% chance and ended up with hometown hero and first pick Derrick Rose.

Using today’s rosters, I will construct an ideal draft lottery result that would benefit every team in terms of fit. In other words, if the draft lottery ends up this way, each team will benefit from a player who will fit their outlook over the next five years. Apologies to the Chicago Bulls, but their top-four protection won’t apply to this mock lottery, as the needs of the top-four teams to the top-four players are much stronger than what they would be in Chicago.

1. San Antonio Spurs (lottery probability: 14%)

Victor Wembanyama

The Spurs are the only team out of the three that have equal odds to win the lottery that doesn’t have a promising center. Tre Jones seems to be a promising “defense and dimes” young guard, joining the steadily improving Devil Vassell in the backcourt, but the frontcourt is constructed of Jeremy Sochan, Khem Birch, and Zach Collins. Wembanyama would provide instant interior presence along with his deadly jump shot and length, and would complement Sochan well in the starting lineup.

2. Houston Rockets (lottery probability: 14%)

Scoot Henderson

Houston’s backcourt struggled mightily with efficiency in its second year of operation. Kevin Porter Jr. had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8, while Jalen Green was at 1.4. For reference, the previously mentioned Tre Jones had a 4.1 assist to turnover ratio this season. Scoot Henderson would bring instant playmaking, especially in transition. He would also draw attention with his methodical yet shifty game, adding easier shots for Green.

3. Detroit Pistons (lottery probability: 14%)

Brandon Miller

When Saddiq Bey was traded out of Detroit, fans were left scratching their heads. Brandon Miller is not only a good replacement for Bey, but he fits perfectly into the schematic setup of the Pistons. Cunningham is the face of the franchise, operating the offense along with the speedster Jaden Ivey, but the most deadly weapon in this ideal offense would be Miller, who has a remarkable jumpshot for a forward and an ability to drive and finish with force.

4. Washington Wizards (lottery probability: 6.7%)

Amen Thompson

A world with Amen Thompson and Bradley Beal in the frontcourt is an exciting one. Thompson is a freak athlete who slashes with power, whereas Beal is more of a dynamic shooter at this point in his career. The rim pressure in Washington has fallen off a cliff during the Porzingis era, and I believe the shot quality of the team would be greatly improved by the crafty finishing and unbelievable athleticism of Thompson. Also look for his playmaking game, another Washington weakness, to be more developed than many may think.

5. Charlotte Hornets (lottery probability: 12.5%)

Cam Whitmore

Charlotte needs LaMelo Ball healthy more than anything, but as Terry Rozier’s future with the team is in doubt, the next three-level scorer is a need in Charlotte. Whitmore also brings something Rozier doesn’t: a decent defensive ceiling. Add on the fact that Charlotte would become lob city with Whitmore and Ball on the same court, and this is a no-brainer.

6. Orlando Magic (lottery probability: 9%)

Taylor Hendricks

The wing core of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Taylor Hendricks would be insane. They already have a three-man guard rotation and a two-man center rotation, so Hendricks would complete the core rotation for the Magic. Although not a completely raw prospect, Orlando can really take time to develop his game, but Hendricks already has good defensive fundamentals and a nice offensive package.

7. Utah Jazz (lottery probability: 4.5%)

Ausar Thompson

Utah is a small team who desperately needs a defensive guard. Ausar Thompson, like his brother, is an insanely gifted athlete who shows great defensive promise to go along with his explosiveness. He will play a limited role, but will give Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson (if he remains in Utah) breathing room defensively.

8. Portland Trail Blazers (lottery probability: 10.5%)

Jarace Walker

The eighth pick would be a fall for Portland, but the bottom line is that they need defense. Jarace Walker has potential to be the best weak side defender in the NBA who could be responsible for an entire half of the halfcourt at his peak. His jumpshot continues to improve as well, but the real highlight is that he could bring his team from the 28th best defense to the top half.

9. Indiana Pacers (lottery probability: 6.8%)

Anthony Black

Chris Duarte’s second season has proved that Indiana will need to look elsewhere for a starter-caliber shooting guard in their long-term plans. Anthony Black is a huge guard who has good upside defensively and in terms of playmaking. Indiana could be a snappy, quick group that is focused on slashing. What an elite modern offense this could be.

10. Dallas Mavericks (lottery probability: 3.0%)

Jordan Hawkins

The best shooter in the draft would fit perfectly on a struggling Dallas roster who just needs three-and-D guys. Hawkins would also expand the playbook for a limited Dallas team with his deadly off-ball catch-and-shoot game. Dallas could take some attention away from Luka with off-ball actions designed to get Hawkins open.

11. New Orleans Pelicans (lottery probability: 0.5%)

Jalen Hood-Schifino

This squad is loaded, but an efficient point guard would complete the rotation. There are playmaking issues in New Orleans, and Hood-Schifino could be the answer. He’s a shoot-first guy as well, but he brings quickness that opens up the dump passes to Zion Williamson and the other bigs. I think he would be a great sixth man, running the backup unit to perfection in the way Tyus Jones does just a few states away. His lack of defense would be covered by Dyson Daniels and Herbert Jones.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (lottery probability: 1.7%)

Keyonte George

Another slashing, athletic guard would pair well with Josh Giddey. This team is just a hair slow looking forward, so the quickness and force of George would be ideal for the Thunder’s push to the playoffs once more.

13. Orlando Magic (from Chicago Bulls, lottery probability: 1.8%)

Gradey Dick

He would come off the bench, but Dick could bring more scoring to a bench unit that is defensively sound (Jalen Suggs and Bol Bol). When in doubt, add another shooter.

14. Toronto Raptors (lottery probability: 1%)

Gregory Jackson

If the Raptors do end up hitting the reset button in the next few years, GG Jackson is the only player remaining in this draft that they could genuinely build around. It will take years of development, but Jackson can fine-tune his decision-making and shot selection over the course of a rebuild. The big forward can change directions like no other at his size, and he has a deep bag for a wing.

The Ideal 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

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