The Geometry Of the NBA’s Leading Scorers
Kevin Durant shoots over the top of Joel Embiid during a matchup between the Nets and 76ers. (photo via Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports) The NBA's best scorers manage to succeed in a variety of ways, and they do it from different spots on the court. In this article I will explore how, and where, the NBA's leading scorers go about doing their job.
There are two stats you can use to learn a lot about a whether player is capable of being the focal point of a great modern NBA offense; true shooting % (TS%) and percentage of field goals made that are unassisted (FGM%UAST). TS% tells you how efficient a player is and FGM%UAST tells you how much of his offense the player is creating for himself. Volume should be taken into consideration as well, however starting with these two simple stats should give us a good indicator of who are the best offensive engines in the league today.
As we can see players like Chris Paul, Trae Young, and James Harden all stick out for scoring at an efficient rate while also managing to generate a majority of their own offense. A bit below them are players like De'Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, focal points of their offense who haven't been quite as efficient this year, and below them are young creators like Davion Mitchell, Cade Cunningham, and Josh Giddey. These budding creators are trying to generate a lot of their own offense, but are not very efficient at it yet. On the left side of the graph we see efficient scorers who are primarily play finishers, usually big men like Rudy Gobert or Jarred Allen. However we can see Gary Payton II is also an upper left corner, despite the fact that he is a guard, his athleticism and lack of shooting has led him to a role in the Golden State offense where is usually cutting or screening and rolling to receive a Draymond Green lob at the rim.
Thanks to tracking data collected by the NBA, we can now see how much a player moves during a single game, and we can also see what their average speed is. This raises a simple question that we will soon answer, which players score the most while needing to move the least?
As we can see from the graph above plotting average speed on offense vs. points per game, movement shooters like Steph Curry, Tyler Herro, and Doug McDermott do more than their fair share running to score the points that they do. In contrast, players like Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, and Anthony Davis have found a way to be great scorers while maintaining a low average speed. Similar to them is Carmelo Anthony, who is known for his patented jab step mid-range jumper, making it not surprising he's able to score at a decent volume while not having to exert too much energy. Since it seemed to me that a lot of the older players had a lower average speed, I wanted to see if this was a trend throughout the league.
The graph above plotting average speed vs. age shows us that there is a general trend that the older a player gets, the slower he tends to be. However, speedy elders like Danny Green and slower, more methodical youngsters such as Alperen Sengun and Jayson Tatum are some of the many exceptions to the rule. An important thing to consider is that we are tracking average speed, so even a player like Donovan Mitchell who is incredibly fast and quick will have a low average speed if he is standing stationary off-ball a lot of the time. While we're on the topic of speed and explosiveness I wanted to look at which players are able to get out in transition and get on top of the rim.
The graph above plotting dunks vs. percentage of points on fast breaks does show us that obviously the players dunking the most are Centers were primarily not doing it on fast breaks, however there are some players that consistently run the break and manage to slam it down at the rim. We know that players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miles Bridges, Aaron Gordon, Zach LaVine, and Anthony Edwards are all great athletes, and this is borne out in the data where we can see that they turn a lot of their fast break opportunities into backboard shattering dunks.
In the next couple graphs, I want to explore which players manage to be “masters of their zone”, a concept that will soon become clear.
The graph above plotting FG% on shots <5ft. from the rim vs. the amount of said attempts per game shows us the players who dominate the space around the rim. To no surprise Giannis, Domantas Sabonis, and Anthony Davis are all in the upper right quadrant, which is where Zion Williamson presumably would have been had he been able to play this season. Deandre Ayton and Jarrett Allen, two young bigs who have taken steps forward this season, are nearing the upper-right zone of the graph as well as they learn how to better assert themselves on the inside.
The graph above plotting FG% on shots 5-9ft. from the rim vs. the amount of said attempts per game lets us know which players are most dominate in the “in-between” area; the area not quite at the rim but not really in the mid-range either. Here is where finesse and soft touch reign supreme, so it not surprising to see that the most graceful of big men, Nikola Jokic, and crafty young guards like Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell do well for themselves in this area. Jonas Valanciunas and his myriad of post moves means he also consistently finds success in this area. Deandre Ayton, who probably hopes to develop a post game on a similar level to that of Valanciunas’, is having himself a great shooting season from the “in-between” area as he continues to develop as an offensive threat.
In a graph of FG% on shots 10-14ft. from the rim vs. amount of said attempts per game, one man stands alone. Kevin Durant is having a historic season from the mid-range, so it is not surprising that he is taking nearly two more shots per game from this zone than the next closest person. Even though his efficiency from this zone doesn't look too crazy, you have to consider that with the volume of shots from this area that he's taking, a lot of them involve a defender being practically glued to his chest. However, Durant's high release point means he's able to get the shot off anyways with the result usually being the same; the ball falling through the hoop as a satisfied Durant jogs back on defense. Durant's greatness has the unfortunate side effect of overshadowing others who are showing prowess from this zone on the court, as DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, and Brandon Ingram are all consistently mining good points from this area of the mid-range.
DeMar DeRozan has been electric in the area 15-19ft. from the rim so far this season. Like Kevin Durant in the 10-14ft. range, DeMar is in a league of his own from this particular zone. He’s taking 5 shots from this area per game, and he’s making nearly half of them, a big reason for why he’s been so good for the Chicago Bulls this season. Near him on this graph are the usual suspects, mid range maestros such as Devin Booker, KD, Paul George, and Brandon Ingram. Someone who as made a bit of a resurgence this year is LaMarcus Aldridge, who has been extremely efficient from this zone. He’s been carving defenses up as they too often leave him open on the pick and pop to sink a mid range jumper that has become the bread and butter of his game.
For the final area of the court that we are going to look at, I wanted to explore the area 25-29ft. from the rim, also known as the land of 3-pointers, or maybe better known as the land of Stephen Curry. Not only is Steph taking more than two of these shots per game than the next closest player, he is also making an eye watering 42% of these shots. Similar to the case of Kevin Durant, his efficiency becomes more impressive when you consider the difficulty of the shots Steph is taking, as his 3-pt attempts often involve him sprinting around a screen to catch the ball and quickly release it as multiple defenders hound him down. While no one is really close to the level of Steph, we can see from the graph the other prolific shooters from deep, as Buddy Hield and Damian Lillard put up a lot of shots from 3, while players like Luke Kennard and Tyler Herro aren’t shooting with the same volume as Lillard or Hield from beyond the arc, but they are rather efficient as both Kennard and Herro are over 40% on shots 25-29ft. from the rim.