The time has come.

The Denver Nuggets just won their first championship in franchise history and Adam Silver must now deliver on his promise to announce the consequences Ja Morant will face now that the Finals are over.

We all know what happened, so let’s skip the context and consider the factors of the situation. The first factor we should note is Morant’s platform. One of the hottest young stars in the game, Morant is flashy, exciting, and extremely fun to watch. This means that his target audience is younger fans who love seeing explosive dunks and new approaches to the offensive game. Many of these fans will go on to emulate Morant on the court and use him as their pillar to get to the NBA. To demonstrate Morant’s influence through numbers, he had the sixth bestselling jersey by the halfway point of the 2022-23 season, which was more than the MVP Joel Embiid and Finals MVP Nikola Jokic.

The second factor is the act itself. Violence is generally frowned upon by the NBA. J.R. Smith, Nate Robinson, and Vernon Maxwell received 10-game suspensions following on-court violence. Dennis Rodman kicked a cameraman in 1997 and received an 11-game suspension. In 2006, Carmelo Anthony punched Mardy Collins and received a 15-game suspension. Kermit Washington had one of the most famous punches in NBA history that sidelined him for 26 games. None of these involved firearms. The closest real-life example to the situation at hand is the 2010 Gilbert Arenas suspension where Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton each pulled a gun on each other during a locker room argument. Arenas served a 50-game suspension. However, the public does not have access to the footage of this altercation. The Morant situation isn’t an Arenas situation where fans couldn’t connect an image to an event. This was on Instagram Live for everyone to see. Considering that he was quite literally dancing with the firearm makes it worse, as he is seen not treating it with care as if it were a toy. For young fans, this can be detrimental. If these young fans see their role model wielding a weapon as a toy, they may be encouraged to do the same. To parents, this could mean less NBA consumption for their children.

The third factor is that this is the second time. Morant was punished the first time and still managed to do it again. What amplifies the magnitude of this factor is that Morant publicly addressed his mistake the first time, promising change and committing himself to betterment. The fact that this happened again is a betrayal to those who had genuinely hoped for and invested in a change.

Let’s break the analysis down into three sections: the platform, the act, and the repetition of the offense. The act of violence alone has resulted in an array of suspension lengths, as discussed earlier. Because a firearm was involved, he should get more than the usual 10-game suspension. However, he didn’t use the firearm with the intent of hurting somebody as Arenas did, so we can’t give him 50 either. Let’s say Morant gets 30 games for this factor, not considering the public aspect of the act. I do confess that we wouldn’t have this suspension without the public aspect of it, but the fact is that we know this happened and that the NBA has all the evidence, and therefore the act must be scrutinized even though it depended on social media to be seen by the NBA and fans. Additionally, we must consider that this is a repeated offense. In 2016, Mitch McGary received a five-game suspension for violating the NBA’s drug policy. He later received a 10-game suspension for committing the same offense. So, Morant’s original eight-game suspension will be doubled. Now we have 30 games for the violent act along with the additional 16 games for the repeated offense. Finally, we have not yet accounted for the publicity aspect of this. The NBA is a massive entertainment tycoon that produces enormous amounts of content for the millions who consume it. This past season, Kyrie Irving served what ended up being an eight-game suspension for promoting anti-Semitic media on his social media accounts. Anti-Semitism and gun violence are both central issues in America today, so the publicity of it will add another eight games to Morant’s suspension.

By breaking down the Ja Morant situation into three intricate factors and examining the NBA’s suspension patterns surrounding those factors, Ja Morant should serve a 54-game suspension. This would exclude Morant from any award conversations, including the All-Star Game, taking away a year of his prime in terms of awards. Morant would presumably serve the suspension by attending counseling sessions (according to Skip Bayless, Lil Wayne is seeking to help Morant through this process), working in the interest of the public good, and helping his team in the practice facilities and off the court. Hopefully, he’s learned his lesson and can return to the court in 2024, inspiring young fans and taking his team further than ever before.