In a draft filled with a lot of questions and no certified top talent, teams may feel upset about this being a year they are in the lottery. That said, teams are still hopeful for their pick to work out. With the Utah Jazz selecting at number 10 overall, let’s take a look at the past five years of #10 overall picks in the NBA draft to see how history has fared.

2023: Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder

Cason Wallace was selected by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the most recent NBA draft. Wallace’s rookie year was a solid developmental year where he played in all 82 games averaging 20.6 minutes, 6.8 points and 2.3 rebounds per game. These numbers don’t just off the page but being a young guard on the Thunder means playing behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander which will always cut into play time. Now that Alex Caruso has joined the team via trade with the Chicago Bulls, Wallace will likely retain his backup role.

It is too early to say exactly how Wallace will turn out in the league so his case is not exactly clear for the Jazz’ hopes yet. If Wallace’s rookie year is any indication, at the very least the Jazz could be looking at a solid rotational piece, which is a crucial piece for a young team seeking an identity.

2022: Johnny Davis, Washington Wizards

In the 2022 NBA draft, Johnny Davis was the selection for the Washington Wizards. In his rookie year Davis only appeared in 28 games, averaging 15.1 minutes, 5.8 point and 2.3 rebounds per game. In 2023, Davis experienced an uptick in games played bringing his total to 50 on the season, however his minutes, points and rebound numbers all dropped. Davis’s three-point shooting percentage did experience a jump from 24.3% to 35% so there is some promise still there, however it was mostly uninspiring. As a shooting guard/small forward, Davis’s specialty should be scoring and rebounding and so far there has not been a lot of either.

On a team with as many questions and issues as the Wizards there are two arguments to be made. First is a defense of Davis in which it can be asked how anyone could possibly develop in as poor of a situation as Washington is in. On the other hand there is a question of why has Davis, a top pick in 2022, not developed into something more? Whichever side of the argument one finds themselves on, it has been a rough stretch for Davis and his career is not what the Jazz would hope for their pick this year.

2021: Ziaire Williams, Memphis Grizzlies

When the Memphis Grizzlies selected Ziaire Williams out of Stanford in the 2021 NBA draft, they were hopeful he could turn into a star alongside Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. With Morant missing time in 2022 and essentially the whole season in 2023, there has not been a whole lot of time for Williams to develop chemistry with Morant. Additionally, Williams has missed at least 20 games in all three of his seasons, furthering his ability to collaborate and connect with his teammates. Overall, Williams is averaging 19.6 minutes, 7.5 points and 2.6 rebounds per game with 42.6% shooting.

Williams has probably been the brightest potential case study for the Jazz to examine to this point. Williams’ splits were all up in his third year and if he can just avoid injury, he could begin to break the 10 points per game threshold. With the return of Morant and other leaders on the Grizzlies next year, Williams will have an uphill battle to continue carving a role but with improvement being shown in the past year, he could put himself in a spot to crack the rotation. Similar to Wallace, if he only ever ends up being a rotational piece on a good team, that is something the Jazz still could use for the future.

2020: Jalen Smith, Phoenix Suns

University of Maryland’s own Jalen Smith was drafted in 2020 by the Phoenix Suns. After a season in which the Suns ended below .500 and out of the playoffs, the team was hopeful to get turned around and make a playoff push. The young power forward/center was brought on and in his first season only played in 27 games averaging 2.0 points, 1.4 rebounds and 0.1 assists per game. During the 2021-22 season, Smith was traded to the Indiana Pacers where he currently plays. The change of scenery has been beneficial for Smith as he is now playing more center and also improving his numbers. During the 2023-24 season, Smith appeared in 61 games averaging 17.2 minutes, 5.5 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game along with 0.6 blocks per game.

Smith has not become the starter at either the center or power forward positions for the Pacers, however that is to be expected as Myler Turner and Pascal Siakam are the starters ahead of him at those respective positions. As his numbers have decreased since the initial trade in 2022, it seems Smith’s role has diminished overall and he’s now seen as more of a depth piece than anything else. For the Jazz, a player who falls off after only four seasons is not something they will be looking forward to at the 10th pick, even if they are a long-term rebuild project.

2019: Cam Reddish, Atlanta Hawks

Cam Reddish’s story in the NBA has been one of the highest highs and the lowest lows. Despite being regarded by many of his NBA colleagues as “the toughest player they’ve had to play against” or “the most skilled player they’ve ever seen”, Reddish has not been the superstar he was expected to be at the 10th overall pick in 2019. Reddish, age 24, is already on his fourth NBA team in five seasons, which is not exactly a sign of success. The young shooting forward is averaging 23.9 minutes, 9.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.0 steals alongside 39.8% shooting for his career. With the Lakers in this past year, Reddish had some incredible games where he was the reason the team won, despite playing next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Injuries have been a large part of Reddish’s career and the 2023-24 campaign was no different in that regard as Reddish appeared in only 48 games.

An up-and-down player after five years who is averaging less than 10 points per game is not exactly who the Jazz would likely have in mind for their 10th selection. While Reddish is a solid NBA player and still shows flashes of potential, the fact he’s been in the league for nearly half a decade and has not developed close to the superstar hype is not a great sign for future prospects.

All in all, if history is to be any indication, the Jazz should be a bit weary about their selection. While some of the players selected at #10 throughout the past five seasons have had bright spots in their careers, for the most part, they have been unable to breakthrough into that upper echelon of player. The Jazz will look to change the fortune of the number 10 overall pick when they make their choice, should they choose to stay at #10, on the first night of the NBA Draft on Wednesday.