Why won’t anyone sign Collin Sexton?
August is a slow time for NBA news. With the draft over and free agency all but over, there just isn’t much opportunity for roster shakeups baring a trade. But oddly enough, two big NBA free agents still remain unsigned. The first is no surprise, Miles Bridges, accused by his girlfriend of beating her, she posted pictures of her very bruised and battered face and Bridges is now subject to a criminal investigation. But the second big unsigned free agent is quite shocking. Collin Sexton, 41 days into free agency still does not have a deal.
Just last summer Sexton was rumored to be angling for a 4 year 100 million dollar deal. He had just wrapped up the 2020-2021 season averaging an outstanding 24.3 points per game, 3.1 rebounds, and a solid 4.4 assists. Even more impressively Sexton did this on great efficiency, shooting 47.5% from the field, 37.1% from three, and 81.5% from the free throw line. He did not have a great year defensively as he averaged only 1.0 steal per game and 0.2 blocks but his offensive impact was enough that he still holds immense value. Guys who can score mid 20s scoring on strong efficiency do not grow on trees and teams often get away with hiding them on a team with multiple elite defenders.
Other knocks on Sexton include him not contributing enough on the glass and as a passer. But other guards who have just signed max, and supermax, deals this offseason were said to have all the same issues just a few years ago and maybe they improved in these areas but the issues never completely went away. So Sexton clearly can overcome some of these issues because those players were fellow shooting guards Bradley Beal and Zach Lavine.
Comparing these players would actually suggest Sexton may be better than them at this stage in their careers. Beal didn’t average more than 3.5 assists until his fifth year in the league. Lavine played point guard his first season and averaged 3.6 but was unable to get back above 3.5 until his fifth season. Sexton in his last healthy season averaged 4.4. And neither Lavine or Beal averaged 20 points until year five, while Sexton in his third put up 24.
For their careers Sexton is often either above them or at least around them in per game numbers as well. Lavine and Beal have also already had more of their prime years completed while Sexton is still in the young stage of his career where rapid improvement often occurs. So Beal averages 22.1 points for his career, followed by Sexton at 20.0, and Lavine in the rear with 19.8. Sexton is about 1 rebound and assist behind per game, but none of them would be considered good in these areas. Sexton’s shooting efficiency stats are also all within 1% of both players.
So why hasn’t a player as good as Sexton been able to get a better deal this offseason while similar players at the same position got max deals with their teams? The Cavs have been reported to offer Sexton a measly 3 years and 40 million dollar contract. Well, the first issue is that almost no one had cap space this year. The Knicks, Spurs, Magic, Pacers, and Pistons were the only teams that had over 21 million in cap space. At this point the only teams that even have cap space to offer a better deal than the 13.3 million per year Cavs offer are the Pacers or Spurs. Both these teams are not only flush with guards but possibly more interested in obtaining the #1 pick in the draft for the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. They might think Sexton makes them too good to be the worst team in the league and he probably does.
Another issue is that of the 12 biggest deals signed in free agency, Jalen Brunson was the only one whose deal involved him switching teams. Teams just weren’t out there looking for big free agent additions this summer. With the Cavs flush with small guards like the recently max extended Darius Garland, it's somewhat understandable why they don’t want to commit so much money to an all offense backcourt like Portland did with Lillard and McCollum. So Sexton’s likely only chance at a better deal is to find a sign and trade to a contending team in need of scoring, perhaps a team like Milwaukee or the Lakers. Otherwise he’ll have to accept his mediocre Cavs offer.
