Olympic Preview: Who Poses the Biggest Threat to the USA?

With the 2024 Paris Olympics coming up, the 12 qualifying teams are going through their final tune-ups in preparation for pool play to begin. This field, similarly to the 2023 FIBA World Cup, boasts the biggest spread of talent that international basketball competition has ever seen. While the American team is rightfully the heavy favorites to bring home yet another gold medal after in this year’s competition, more teams than ever are ready to challenge the US for basketball supremacy. After analyzing the field, here are the top five teams with the best chance to topple the “Avengers” suiting up for the USA.

Australia

Across the NBA rosters, both past and present, arguably no player has shown a larger jump from NBA to international basketball competition than current Miami Heat guard Patty Mills. His international resume is outstanding when looking at his individual performances, along with the fact that he is the biggest reason that the Aussies have pushed the US teams to the brink in multiple matchups throughout the year. He enters this Olympics with more support around him than ever before, from fellow Australian basketball legend Joe Ingles and Matthew Dellavedova to young up-and-comers in Josh Green and Josh Giddey. This team also boasts some of the best chemistry and comfortability with one another when compared to the teams around them. Expect the Australians to push Canada at the top of Group A and act as a dark horse if they make it to the elimination stage of the tournament.

France

Much has been made of France’s front line, and rightfully so, considering that they finished first and second in this year’s Defensive Player of the Year voting. Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert benefit from the FIBA rules that the Olympics use, allowing them to make the most of their length down low by lurking around the paint and torturing any player foolish enough to drive in and put up a shot in their vicinity. The other notable strength of this roster? Their playstyle, which is comparable to the way that the 2010s Spurs played during their dynastic run. Much of that is, of course, attributed to the influence of French basketball legend Tony Parker, who recently had his number retired by the team. Every pass, every movement has meaning when the French play and with the talent that Wembanyama brings to the table, both within himself and how his game affects others, the host country’s team is a lead candidate to at least medal and compete for the gold.

Germany

In all the hype surrounding this year’s competition, the team that took home the 2023 FIBA championship is being surprisingly looked over. Germany displayed physical play and at times, total dominance on the world stage last summer, largely thanks to Dennis Shroder, the beating heart of the team and the dynamic Wagner brothers. Germany’s run proved to the world that you don’t need an overload of talent to win against other top countries if your team knows their strengths and buys into them. In this case, the team dug in on the defensive end of the floor and allowed Shroder to run the offense, using his speed and playmaking talent to put his teammates in advantageous positions. A jump is expected from both Mo and Franz Wagner after each got another year of NBA experience under their belt, while veterans Daniel Theiss and Maodo Lo bring balance to the team. The Germans have something to prove after hearing that their FIBA performance was a fluke, and Paris gives them the opportunity to make a thunderous statement to the rest of the world.

Serbia

In all honesty, the argument for Serbia appearing on this list could easily start and end with the fact that they have Nikola Jokić, widely considered the best player on the planet, on their team. The conversation only begins there, though. This Serbian team is covered with NBA talent, including names like Nikola Jović, Bogdan Bogdanović and Vasilije Micić. Jokić, as he does with the Denver Nuggets, serves as the offensive hub for his team thanks to his unreal passing ability and willingness to involve others instead of just trying to win the game all on his own. In an exhibition game against the French, who can send out the best defensive attack against the Joker, he sliced and diced up their defense, finishing the game with 20 points and 12 rebounds, along with a +/- of +12. Behind the reigning NBA MVP, many expect Serbia to make a deep run and are the favorites when looking at dark horse candidates to go all the way in Paris.

Canada

Another team who took down the American team at the FIBA competition in 2023, Canada is the team that many are expecting to be the biggest threat to the US. Almost their entire roster is made up of NBA talent, headlined by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray and RJ Barrett, giving them a leg up on most of the other teams competing. What makes this team more dangerous than many others is their defensive strength. SGA was a candidate for an All-Defensive team this season. So was Luguentz Dort, and the team plays best when they hang their hats on that end of the floor. The scoring will take care of itself when your team has scorers like Gilgeous-Alexander, Murray and Barrett, but toppling team USA requires a stellar defensive performance. If Canada can strike the perfect balance and catch the Americans off guard, the gold medal might have a home a little bit further north than most basketball fans expect.