With much of the chaos of free agency behind us, it’s time to look forward to the 2024-25 season. Dark horses will emerge and a couple of teams will surprise everyone, but for the most part, people know what to expect from many. However, in the Northwest Division (and the Western Conference as a whole), the teams at the top are so talented that predicting which team will be at the top by the end of the year is near impossible. And yet, people will try, running models and simulations of the season to see which team finishes at the top of the standings most consistently. Here’s a look at our predictions for each Northwest team based on their over/under wins projection for the 2024-25 season.

Oklahoma City Thunder 

Projection: 54.5 wins

Prediction: OVER

This team won 57 games last season without making very many moves throughout the season, aside from the questionable choice of bringing in Gordon Hayward instead of trying to secure a backup center. Regardless of that, the team consistently won behind monstrous efforts from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Now, the team is arguably better after one of the best offseasons of any team this summer. Bringing in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein covers up some of the shortcomings in their lineups, as does parting ways with Josh Giddey. There is a lot to be said for teams that can maintain consistency with a team that has shown that they can win at the highest level. No team has a brighter future than the Thunder, but they might be able to reap the rewards of being patient in the front office even sooner than they hoped they could.

Denver Nuggets

Projection: 52.5 wins

Prediction: UNDER

This is not a complaint or critique targeted towards the Nuggets, who have consistently been one of the best teams in the league over the last four years. It is more so a compliment to the competitiveness of the rest of the Western Conference, which has finally caught Denver in terms of team talent. Nikola Jokić is widely considered the best player in the world, and he and Jamal Murray are still the premier pick-and-roll threat in the league, but the problems with the team lie at the margins. Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a massive wound to Denver’s team, and their bench is almost non-existent outside of Peyton Watson. Don’t doubt the Joker’s ability to take over and keep the Nuggets at the top of the standings, but it will be harder for him to do so than it has ever been.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projection: 52.5 wins

Prediction: OVER

Again, youth carries the conversation here now that the Timberwolves have shown that they can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. Much of this continued success assumes growth from Anthony Edwards in terms of his playmaking and leadership. There is some caution surrounding the team, though, as many are comparing them to recent renditions of the Memphis Grizzlies. While Edwards is not likely to engage in the same offseason semantics as Ja Morant when it comes to his social media choices, it’s easy to see a situation in which the team reverts back to the norm after a successful season. The Timberwolves are less likely to fall though because they are built on the defensive end of the floor and have the veteran presence to balance out their young flamethrowers.

Utah Jazz

Projection: 35.5 wins

Prediction: UNDER

This seems a bit unfair considering the fact that the Jazz’s offseason is far from over, with rumors flying around their team, specifically towards Lauri Markkanen and the other veterans on the roster. There are two paths for this team to take this season; keep the team together and compete for a play-in spot in the Western Conference or bottom out and tank for Cooper Flagg, the top prospect in next year’s draft. General manager, Danny Ainge, has historically been against the idea of tanking, choosing instead to poach picks from the teams that choose to do so instead of bottoming out his own team. If they don’t choose to make such trades, they would retain a roster that could see them finish as high as a play-in berth given how competitive the Western Conference projects to be this season. A lot of people struggle to see how making that decision helps the team in the long term, given how little financial flexibility they will have if they choose to extend Lauri Markkanen. 

Portland Trail Blazers

Projection: 22.5 wins

Prediction: UNDER

The Blazers might be one of the only teams in the Western Conference who want to finish under their projection (unless the Utah Jazz decide to tank as well). They have an interesting lineup with young players spread throughout, but they have their eyes set on Cooper Flagg and the rest of the top players in next year’s draft class. Many expect them to be active on the trade market from now until the deadline in February as they try to move some of their veteran players out of the door in order to free up more minutes for their future pillars. They brought in Deni Avdija and drafted Donovan Clingan, but with players like Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and to a certain extent DeAndre Ayton still on the roster, questions have arisen about the team’s commitment to their future and the direction they want to take. Having a veteran presence on a young team can help talented players develop at a higher rate, but the harm lies in the fact that if they are given the lion’s share of minutes, they can stunt the growth of the younger players on the roster.