It Is So Hard to Correctly Predict NBA Games
I'm pretty good at calling series winners, but not game winners
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I'm pretty good at calling series winners, but not game winners 〰️
Image from CelticsBlog
Last night, we experienced 2 NBA games that were on totally different sides of competitiveness, but both had insane levels of entertainment. Tonight, we get 2 NBA games where the home team has won each game in the series. So far, my overall series predictions do not look too bad (except for one which I will get into), but boy oh boy I cannot, for the life of me, get a consistent game by game prediction down.
Now, let’s get into the one series that is trending in the opposite direction of my prediction, which is the #2 seed Boston Celtics vs. #3 seed Milwaukee Bucks. When the playoffs started, I had a couple teams in mind that I thought could win the title, but I did not see any real favorite. However, if I had to pick one team, I went with Boston.
Before game 1, I was on the Full Court Press podcast and said the Bucks had the first game, which I was right about, as they took it pretty easily. Game 2, I called Celtics, and was proven right. Before game 3, off the great total team based basketball the Celtics had been playing, I took them as my winner, only for them to pull a Knicks play out of their back pocket and finish off the fake comeback with a basket that did not count. After seeing such a feel good win for the Bucks, I felt I had no choice but to take them for game 4 as well (although I flip-flopped a lot), but again, I was very wrong as the Celtics had a storming 4th quarter, essentially capped off by a trick shot by Jayson Tatum who was falling down as the shot clock was going off.
2 games in a row called wrong. Just like both teams, I was now .500 in the series. Maybe a victim of recency bias, and my desire for this series to go 7, I picked the Celtics to win game 5, with the thought that the Bucks would take game 6. However, after 2 consecutive superb defensive stops by Jrue Holiday, including a clutch 3 before that by Holiday, I was yet again on the wrong side of history. The Boston Celtics, my pick to win it all, now trail 3-2 going on the road for game 6. While I said I picked Milwaukee at home no matter what for game 6, I now sit here torn, as this series has been too competitive and beautiful for it to not go 7.
Image from Sky Sports
It would make sense that whichever I way I go, I am going to be wrong. As of right now, 538 gives the Bucks a 70% chance at winning this series, with game 6 being the closeout game. Also, I just feel that Milwaukee won the series with game 5, even though there is still a lot of work to do. With that in mind, my official pick for game 6 is the Milwaukee Bucks, and my initial championship pick of Boston is now wrong. I kind of hope I’m wrong, but this is what my heart is telling me.
Now, let’s look at the Warriors and Grizzlies series. First off, my initial prediction of this series was Warriors in 6, and that does not look too bad right now. However, I am not great at the game by game predictions. Game 1, I took Memphis. Game 2, I took Golden State. 0-2. Games 3 and 4 I took Golden State and was right on both accounts. Before game 5 last night, with the official news of Ja Morant being out for the playoffs, I thought Golden State was going to whoop that trick. Once again, wrong. Just like the Celtics-Bucks series, I sit at 2-3 on the series.
Image from ABC7 San Francisco
Don’t get it twisted, the Memphis Grizzlies are not better when Ja Morant is missing. However, they are harder to scout, as the team moves the ball a little more when he is not there, with no real game plan for each night that other teams can figure out. But, WOW, have they been great without him this season. With that said, I am picking the Warriors next game to fulfill my original prediction of Warriors in 6.
Moving on to the underrated series that has been Miami and Philadelphia, I am currently 3-2 in the predictions for this series, and with game 6 being tonight, my prediction is that I will be 4-2 with my picks, but this series will be knotted at 3-3. The home team has had a major advantage each game, as the other teams supporting casts outside of their starts continue to not step up when necessary (not talking about you Tyrese Maxey, you’ve been alright). Moreover, I was 2-0, just like Miami, before Joel Embiid came back. When it was announced he was back, I figured that Miami was just going to hack him without any fouls called, and this series was cooked. But, his defensive presence was a major factor in their wins for games 3 and 4, as just the mere sight of him in the paint had Miami’s offense second guessing everything they saw.
In game 5, Embiid looked like the drugs they gave him wore off, with his whole head looking like it was in real pain. On top of that, he was still fighting to make big plays, such as the one where he tried to save the ball from going out of bounds next to his own basket, that led to Miami getting on the fast break. To me, that showed how much heart Embiid has, to put his body on the line like that given the current circumstances. Because of that, I think Philly’s crowd will give the team that extra bit of toughness, leading them to a win. My initial pick for this series was Heat in 6, but I’m now shamelessly backtracking. If I was a betting man, I would say Heat in 7, but I want to watch the game tonight before making a game 7 pick.
Image from Liberty Ballers
Lastly, I am still the definition of mid when it comes to calling games, as I now sit 3-2 in calling the Suns-Mavericks series. Each game, I have called Phoenix, mainly because I do not trust anyone on Dallas besides Luka Doncic. And guess what, I am still picking Phoenix for game 6, even if I am rooting for Dallas. The ball moves great when it is not sticking in Luka’s hands, but even when it is moving like that, it isn’t always resulting in points, as Brunson, Dinwiddie, Bertans, Kleber, and co. continue to be beyond inconsistent. I would love if this series went 7, as these teams clearly do not like each other, but I think it ends tonight.
