Grading the 2021 NBA Lottery draft picks on their sophomore production so far

Last year’s Rookie of the Year frontrunners Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes prepare to matchup (by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

It might be a bit early to claim that 2021 was a fantastic draft- no one has even been declared an All-Star yet- but the depth of its class has been impressive. Here, I will be focusing squarely on the lottery, so no Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Isaiah Jackson, Quentin Grimes, Bones Hyland, Herbert Jones, or Ayo Dosumnu. They would all be fun to discuss and would be included if I did a redraft this year. Anyway, let’s get started.

Pick 1: Cade Cunningham (PG/SG)- Detroit Pistons

There were good signs in Year Two for Cade, but the truth is that this season has ultimately been a lost one for him.

In the 12 games he played before going down with a season-ending injury, though, he averaged 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and six assists which is extremely encouraging. However, efficiency remains an issue for him, particularly from three, as he shot 41.5 percent from the field overall and a dismal 27.9 percent which likely would’ve gone up about four or five percentage points had he played more.

Still, he only played 12 games which is a ridiculously small sample size, and we know he will be out for the season. He could receive a grade if it were cumulative for Years One and Two, but since I’m primarily using Year Two criteria, he doesn’t get one.

Grade: N/A

Pick 2: Jalen Green (SG) - Houston Rockets

Taking Green at number two overall looks pretty bad in hindsight, but a year and a half isn’t enough time to label him as a bad player. It is enough time to say he didn’t deserve to go this high (for me, at least). And after a strong finish that followed a rough start last year, Green has returned to his inefficient ways.

Green is also far from a complete player. While he has improved his assist numbers from last year, they still aren’t very high. The boards are also low, and the defensive numbers are in the toilet. None of those categories are what he excels at, though.

He was drafted to score, and yes, he is averaging 21.7 points which looks good on the surface, but then you see he shoots 32.6 percent from three and 41 percent overall and has an insane usage rate of 28.1 percent. He’s taking a lot of shots, they’re not going in, and he’s doing very little to create for others.

Do I think Green improves? Yes, definitely. In fact, young shooting guards often struggle, and I just watched him score 42 on 15-for-25 shooting tonight. However, this is based on the production over the course of the entire season.

He has also been horrible on defense. I don’t think he’s been awful, but the way he has played hasn’t translated to wins or much of a positive impact on his team.

Grade: C+

Pick 3: Evan Mobley (PF/C) - Cleveland Cavaliers

The talk of the NBA season last year was when Mobley came out ballin’. He has done more of the same, continuing from where he left off last year. His numbers are more or less the same as last year, besides his block rate decreasing (which shouldn’t be too much of a worry) and a significant increase in efficiency.

His usage has gone down with the arrival of Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt, but he has adjusted terrifically and has really picked it up of late (he did have stretches where he struggled earlier in the season). In fact, as of my writing this, Mobley hasn’t scored fewer than 17 points in his last six games, and in the last one, he scored 38!

I like what he brings and how versatile he is on both ends of the court. He could improve his game by becoming a better free-throw shooter (68 percent is rough) and attempting more threes. Still, these are just nitpicks for a second-year player who has already helped his team reach the playoffs in Year One. Mobley is already a great player who could have easily won Rookie of the Year last year if not for the next guy on this list.

Grade: A-

Pick 4: Scottie Barnes (PF/SF) - Toronto Raptors

I might be a bit biased since he is currently on my fantasy team, but I think Barnes has crazy potential and is a super fun player to watch. Yes, he was slumping for long portions of the early season while sometimes lacking in aggression, but this is normal for a player entering his second season.

The same has happened to Mobley, and just like him, Barnes has turned it around, and his numbers look similar to last year’s. Like Mobley, he is super versatile as a defender, but he adds a playmaking aspect. Barnes is averaging 4.8 assists this season, a reflection of his basketball IQ and his knack for making the right pass.

I know the Raptors have struggled, but that’s because of their awful bench and lack of guards, not their starting five. Barnes has scored 20 or more in four of the team’s last seven games while dishing out five assists or more in five of them. Also, similarly to Mobley, the boards and defense go without saying, and he could improve his free throws and three-point shooting.

Barnes is a winning player, and I think when it’s all said and done, he and Mobley (and maybe Cunningham) will be viewed as the best of this class. After all, Barnes did win ROTY, while Mobley finished second. I think the voters got it right this time.

Grade: A-

Pick 5: Jalen Suggs (PG/SG) - Orlando Magic

Jalen Suggs is still young and has flashed great two-way potential, but he has looked rough so far. His shooting splits as a rookie were abysmal, and while they have improved, they are still awful this year, even though injuries and a lack of minutes haven’t helped.

He is down from 27.2 minutes per game (mpg) last year to 23.5 mpg this year. Health may be a reason for that, but bad play, youth, and the great play of Markelle Fultz are all contributing a little. Suggs remains a solid passer and strong defender with a knack for steals, but the scoring part of his game leaves much to be desired.

I think his style of play can probably develop into something special, but based on what we’ve seen so far, the Magic might have taken him a little high. They are also likely easing him into things, but he has played fewer than 20 minutes in his last six games, which is pretty disappointing.

While Green has been pretty disappointing as a number two pick, Suggs has somehow been even more disappointing at number five. He will get better, but he doesn’t get a pass for that.

Pick 6: Josh Giddey (PG/SG) - Oklahoma City Thunder

After a rough start to the season, Giddey has been rolling. And I mean rooolling. Giddey had a strong rookie year but had problems with efficiency, shooting 42 percent from the field and only 70 percent from the line for 12.5 points per game.

Well, he said forget about that because this year, he has shot 48.6 percent from the field (!) and 81 percent from the free-throw line for 16 points per game (PPG). Those are unbelievable numbers. Add eight rebounds and 5.8 assists to that, and you can’t argue that Giddey has really stepped it up in his sophomore campaign.

He has just a few weaknesses, though. He isn’t very good from three, although he is improving. His defensive numbers are also pretty poor (0.71 steals/0.47 blocks). As we speak, though, the Thunder are 24-26 and fighting for a playoff spot. The improved play of Giddey, along with the sensational superstar play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the strong play of rookie Jalen Williams is a big reason why.

Look, it may seem a little crazy to put Giddey on the same plain as Mobley and Barnes, but he deserves it based on this year’s numbers and how much the Thunder have improved. The Thunder did an excellent job nabbing Giddey with the sixth pick.

Grade: A-

Pick 7: Jonathan Kuminga (SF) - Golden State Warriors

To Kuminga’s credit, he has shown an ability to put up points in limited minutes. However, his fit on the Warriors is a little mismatched, and he hasn’t been particularly impressive in his second year. He only averages 19 minutes per game and has lacked consistency.

Kuminga has shown that he can score well and efficiently (48 percent on the season) with the ball in his hands but contributes little else when he isn’t a featured player, leading to inconsistent production. He can rebound decently but doesn’t create for others, shoots poorly from three (a theme in this draft class), and the free-throw line, in addition to just being an average defender.

The Warriors also don’t seem to trust him much, although I guess they do more than James Wiseman and Moses Moody, which is… uh, faint praise. Kuminga hasn’t been totally awful, but his 2022-23 campaign thus far has been disappointing, with some nice moments sprinkled in sporadically.

Grade: D+

Pick 8: Franz Wagner (SF)- Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic look like they got a steal at number eight with Franz Wagner, who has been leagues better than his teammate, who was also drafted in the lottery.

After a great rookie season, Wagner is shooting even better inside and outside the arc. He’s increased his PPG from 15.2 to 20.4, and he looks like one of the two best prospects on the team alongside Paolo Banchero, this year’s number-one pick. He’s also making strides as a passer, and his strong, efficient play and good chemistry with Banchero, Fultz, and Wendell Carter Jr. have led to more wins than expected for their rebuilding squad.

Wagner has had an excellent second year and has been one of the very best from his draft class. His game might not be the strongest in terms of peripheral numbers, but he has been so efficient and consistent that he deserves the same grade as guys like Mobley, Barnes, and Giddey.

Grade: A-

From here on out, the lottery picks get less interesting, so I will keep it shorter.

Pick 9: Davion Mitchell (PG)- Sacramento Kings

A confusing pick at the time that remains confusing, Mitchell’s role has decreased as the Kings have started to win more. Known for his on-ball defense, Mitchell’s play hasn’t been particularly inspiring, and it looks like he needs multiple injuries to receive significant playing time. It hasn’t been a good second year for him.

Grade: D

Pick 10: Ziaire Williams (SF)- Memphis Grizzlies

His rookie year was alright, I guess. He hasn’t played much this year, and his shooting efficiency has gone down. I was about to give him the N/A grade, but I see him improving slightly to last year’s level, which wasn’t anything to write home about, if I’m being honest. I do think he has potential, though.

Grade: D-

Pick 11: James Bouknight (SG)- Charlotte Hornets

Impressively, it looks as though Bouknight may have already cemented his spot in the bust hall of fame. However, describing him as awful is too kind. The Hornets failed big time with this one, and there is nothing that looks encouraging about him.

Grade: F

Pick 12: Joshua Primo (SG)- San Antonio Spurs

For both different and similar reasons, this pick looks awful in hindsight. For one, he didn’t look great when he played (better than Bouknight, similar to Mitchell or Williams) even though he may have flashed potential as a passer, but the main fact is that he isn’t even on their team or in the league anymore. That alone deserves the lowest possible rating.

Grade: F

Pick 13: Chris Duarte (SG)- Chris Duarte

Somehow older than Brandon Ingram, Duarte has regressed a lot this season. It doesn’t help that his role has decreased, but he just can’t hit a shot to save his life and isn’t a very strong player in other aspects. The Pacers drafted a better version of a similar player in Bennedict Mathurin, and Duarte already looks like an afterthought.

Grade: D

Pick 14: Moses Moody (SG)- Golden State Warriors

These picks at the end of the lottery look brutal less than two seasons later, considering guys like Alperen Sengun and Trey Murphy III were taken a few picks later. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. Moody hardly gets minutes, and he has a negative impact on his team when he does, so the team doesn’t trust him. I think he’ll be good one day, but he looks lost this year.

Grade: D-

Grading the 2021 NBA Lottery draft picks on their sophomore production so far

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