Chet Holmgren could be the best Thunder player since Kevin Durant

Jul 19

When the year started, most of those who follow the NBA, NCAA, and the draft ranked Chet Holmgren as the best NBA prospect. After all, he crossed up Stephen Curry at Curry’s basketball camp at age 17. Even more impressive, he stands 7-foot with a 7-foot-6 wingspan but moves very well for a guy that size. He had a very impressive year at Gonzaga with per 40-minute stats of 21 points, an insane 5.4 blocks, 1.2 steals, and 14.7 rebounds a game. Holmgren also showed the ability to single-handedly carry a defense and the potential to one day do the same on offense. However, despite the statistics and preseason hype, he fell to the second overall pick, where Oklahoma City happily snatched him up to play with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey.

Holmgren’s biggest weakness is likely his playmaking and passing ability (only 3.4 assists per 40 minutes in college), so playing with two guards with strong passing ability should set him up nicely to focus on what he does well as a rookie. At Gonzaga, Holmgren shot an incredible 60.7 percent from the field and 39 percent from three, setting him up nicely to play off the ball while he finds his footing.

The similarities between Holmgren and Durant are numerous. Both were considered way too skinny to play in the NBA by their detractors, and Durant has shown it not to be an issue. In summer league, Holmgren seemed stuck in the corners watching other players drive too often. While he is 7-foot, I think his best NBA position will be as a small forward to begin his career, so he doesn’t waste his talent standing in the corner spotting him. After all, basically any NBA player can do that.

Holmgren is not a great post player, although he is skilled facing up and an excellent lob threat in the pick and roll game. He is more skilled, however, when it comes to shooting and ball handling, so OKC would likely not get the complete package of his skills should they use him as a traditional big man. Holmgren is also not strong enough to guard most fours at this stage of his career and will probably defend small forwards more effectively out of the gate. It is laughable to imagine such a skinny 20-year-old trying to guard Joel Embiid in the post, so he probably is not ready to play center. But like Durant, I think he can be very effective at the four, and similar to how KD has played more four as he got older, it appears Holmgren will settle in as a four for most of his career once he learns to handle the big boys in the NBA.

At the four, he will be able to take advantage of slower players who can't keep up with him off the dribble. He showed the ability to separate in the midrange for pull-up jumpers in the summer league. Whether or not this ability translates to the pros will be the difference in him being OKC's next Durant or another Kristaps Porzingis, which is still a great NBA floor.