Three Reasons Why Bradley Beal Doesn’t Make Sense For The Sixers, Even if Harden Bolts
In the last week or so, there have been rumblings around the NBA that the 76ers could pursue a trade for Bradley Beal, either to replace James Harden or to build a “Big Four” of Harden, Maxey, and Joel Embiid. Here are three reasons why that makes virtually zero sense.
Cost: The 76ers are poised to have just about $8 million in cap space should they forfeit all their free agents, including James Harden. Bradley Beal carries a massive contract with a cap hit of just under $47 million. The trade I keep seeing thrown around by NBA analysts is Tobias Harris and a 2029 first-round pick for Beal, and some variations have included De’Anthony Melton. If the team were to let Harden go and include both Melton and Harris, the team would still have $8 million in cap space as well as a mid-level exception worth around $12 million dollars. If Melton was not included, the team would have no cap space but still have access to the mid-level exception. If they were to re-sign Harden the team would have access to neither. So, by letting Harden walk for Beal, you would essentially be stuck replacing Tobias Harris with the mid-level exception, which is probably a lot harder than it sounds. Good three-and-D wings don’t come cheap, and Tobias was extremely efficient as a fourth option this season, shooting 50.1 percent from the field and 38.9 percent from three. With Melton, it would be virtually impossible to find a 25-year-old with a 6'8 wingspan capable of contributing on offense while locking up opposing guards and wings for $8 million. The new CBA has made things incredibly difficult for teams significantly over the cap, which will be the case no matter what when Maxey and potentially Melton get extended, given their eligibility for one this summer. This will take away access to cap exceptions, which allowed the team to sign PJ Tucker last summer despite being over the cap. It also necessitates trades to be virtually the same in terms of incoming salary, making it very difficult to change the roster once it's set. The team should think very hard before locking in their core with Beal.
Bradley Beal is incredibly overrated: Bradley Beal had three great seasons in a row, starting with 25.6 points per game (PPG) followed by 30.5 before ending his stretch in the 2020/21 season with a whopping 31.3 PPG. Despite all that individual success, the team only made the playoffs one of those seasons where they lost in a gentleman’s sweep to the Sixers, who bowed out to the lowly Hawks shortly after due to Ben Simmons suddenly forgetting how to play basketball. But the other eight seasons of his career averaged out to 19.5 PPG, which is less than Tyrese Maxey averaged this season as the third option to the league's leading scorer and most ball-dominant player in Joel Embiid and James Harden. Beal was the first option on his team most of those years, was at worst the second option, and put up middling numbers anyway. Last year, he averaged just 23.2 as the main option. It's hard to imagine he scores over 20 PPG and being relegated to likely the fourth option behind the ascending Tyrese Maxey. And, given his skillset, if he isn’t scoring a lot of points, then why is he here?
The worst defense among NBA champions since 2010 was ranked seventh in the league: For all the talk about Nikola Jokic’s ability on offense, the Nuggets were the fourth-ranked defense in the regular season and had the top-ranked playoff defense. Most champions finish in the top five, and history tells us it's virtually impossible to do outside the top 10. This year the Sixers finished fifth, and without James Harden and Joel Embiid’s horrible Game Seven, it appears possible this Sixers team could have won the title. If the team were to swap out Harris and Melton for Beal this would leave the team with a starting lineup of Harden (if he returns), Maxey, Beal, Tucker, and Embiid. The lack of size from Maxey definitely hurt the Sixers against Boston this year, and it seems virtually impossible that the team would finish the season with even an average defense with such a small three-guard lineup.
