UFC: What is next for the Bantamweight division?

(Photo courtesy of cbssports.com)

After last Saturday night’s exciting main event bout between Marlon “Chito” Vera and Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz, which saw Vera knockout Cruz in spectacular fashion in front of Cruz’s home crowd, one might wonder what exactly is next for the Bantamweight division? With everyone in the top five fighting within the next two months, there are many intriguing matchups that could be made.

The most prominent question in the division right now is, has Vera done enough to earn the next title shot after TJ Dillashaw at UFC 280? To make a long answer short, probably not, and let’s discuss why.

If Aljamain Sterling retains his belt at UFC 280 in October, there are a variety of matchups other than Vera that could be made. The former Bantamweight champ Petr Yan is fighting on the same card, who will be taking on perhaps the biggest superstar in the UFC right now, Sean O’Malley.

If Yan wins the fight, he would have a strong case for a trilogy fight with Sterling. The only issue is that he’s technically 0-2 against Sterling. However, many people don’t see it that way because Sterling won the first fight and the belt due to an illegal knee by Yan that got him disqualified. It is widely speculated that if that knee had never happened, Yan would have gone on to win the fight.

During the summer of 2021, Yan fought Cory Sandhagen for the interim title and won, setting up a rematch against Sterling at UFC 273, which Sterling won via decision. So, with Sterling technically speaking being 2-0 against Yan, it’s questionable if he would want to go for a trilogy fight this soon.

If O’Malley wins, it has been widely reported that he is guaranteed a title shot by Dana White. That would certainly make things a lot clearer. However, with O’Malley not even being in the top ten, Yan is a huge hurdle to get over. If I were putting money on it, it’s one he won’t get over just yet.

As I said earlier, if Yan beats O’Malley, it’s no guarantee he gets the next title shot. Another fight that complicates things is this next Saturday’s fight between third-ranked Jose Aldo and sixth-ranked Merab Dvalishvili. Aldo has won his last three fights after losing his last title shot against Yan in 2020 and is also a former champion and one of the all-time great UFC fighters. Dvalishvili is riding a seven-fight win streak after losing his first two fights in the UFC.

If Aldo wins, he would present a new challenge for Sterling, on top of riding a four-fight win streak and the credentials of already being a champion at Featherweight. On the other hand, if Dvalishvili wins, it would be hard to deny him a title shot with an eight-fight winning streak after a victory against a former champion and future UFC Hall of Famer.

Now I know this is a lot but bear with me. There’s also another fight that could play a role in all this. Fourth-ranked Cory Sandhagen faces off against 10th-ranked Song Yadong on September 17 at the UFC Apex. It’s unlikely that either of these fighters would get a title shot with a win. It would probably take another main event win for either of them before that happens. Still, it’s another fight to think about.

So let’s wrap all of this up. If Sterling beats Dillashaw, he has multiple options. He could end up facing Yan in a trilogy fight or O’Malley depending on the outcome of the matchup between Yan and O’Malley.

If Yan wins, Sterling could skip over a trilogy fight in favor of the winner of the fight between Aldo and Dvalishvili, or he could fight Marlon Vera. If Dillashaw beats Sterling and reclaims the belt, it’s almost certain he will face the winner of Yan and O’Malley.

So, Vera probably will not get the next title shot. He will likely have to win more fights to get a title shot. If Yan loses, that would be a good matchup. If Yan wins, he could still face Yan or face the winner of Aldo vs. Dvalishvili. He could also face Sandhagen if he beats Yadong.

There are plenty of options, but there is no clear path for the Bantamweight division at the moment. However it plays out, though, it is sure to be exciting.