Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvashvilli Headline UFC 306 at The Sphere: Main Card Preview and Analysis

Photo by Krushna Prasad Pattnaik, MSN

LAS VEGAS- This Saturday comes the highly anticipated UFC 306 on Mexican Independence Day at the Sphere. UFC president Dana White has promised that this will be the largest live sporting event and will celebrate Mexican heritage in Mixed Martial Arts and will feature a plethora of Mexican fighters such as Paul Rosas Jr., Ronaldo “Lazyboy” Rodriguez and Daniel Zellhuber. This card also features MMA superstars such as former champion Valentina Shevchenko and global megastar and current Bantamweight champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley.

(Odds are subject to change)

Flyweight Bout

Ronaldo “Lazyboy” Rodriguez (-142)  and Ode Osborne (+120)

Photo by Fightmag.com

Starting the main card off is a flyweight bout against the young up and coming Ronaldo Rodriguez and tough veteran of the UFC Ode Osborne.

Rodriguez, who is only 25 years old, is on a six fight win streak finishing his last 3 opponents including his most recent win being his UFC debut submitting Denys Bondar. His standup is very aggressive and puts lots of pressure on his opponents giving him openings to land shots or go for a takedown where his grappling shines and his nickname “Lazyboy” comes into play. His grappling style is very nonchalant and flows to wherever he wants the exchange to go most of the time to the back where he usually feels most comfortable. Keys to Victory: Being able to use his full MMA skillset mixing shots with takedowns look for the submission after wearing out Osborne with shots.

On the other hand Osborne has insane power in his hands. His standup and mma as whole is very solid being able to also put pressure on his opponents opening them up for shots like he did against Zarrukh Adashev getting the knockout win in only a minute and one second into the first round. He is 2-3 and there is speculation that this is do or die for Osborne giving this fight the chance to be an underrated classic. Keys to Victory: Let those hands fly and keep everything safe and tight. Don’t over exert yourself especially when there’s an exchange

Lightweight Bout

Daniel Zellhuber (-225) and Esteban Ribovics (+185)

Photo by UFC.com

An exciting fight between two young lightweights moving up the ranks this bout showcases Daniel Zellhuber who is a long and lengthy lightweight at 6 '1 and a reach of 77 inches. He uses this to keep opponents at bay and ushers in teap kicks and his jabs to keep that control of his distance. His combination style helps with the lack of power being able to constantly stun opponents when he is ready to strike. Keys to Victory: Ise that reach and range to keep the distance and move around the cage in order to not get cornered and put in a bad position.

On the other side, Esteban Ribovics coming out of the Dana White Contender Series is a strong lightweight that is known for his power and clinch striking. His last win against Terrance Mckinney, getting the knockout in only 37 seconds put him in the spotlight as a top prospect in the lightweight division. His grappling and wrestling is also quite strong, mixing this in with his clinch could prove useful against the reach of Zellhuber. Keys to Victory: Work those clinches with wrestling as in with the striking. He has to try to close the distance on Zellhuber and push him to the cage wall.

Featherweight Bout

#13 Deigo Lopes (-175) vs. #3 Brian Ortega (+145)

Photo by KTNV

This fight has the potential to be fight of the night and fans are excited for this matchup of the rising star in Diego Lopes and against the once title contender Brain Ortega. This fight was scheduled at UFC 303 but was canceled the day of due to Ortega falling ill and not being able to compete. With that came a fight at a catchweight of 165lbs against Lopes and Dan Ige with only a couple hours notice. This fight may have a title eliminator all over it depending on the result of Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway at UFC 308, an exciting time for the featherweight division.

Lopes, the Brazilian fighter training out of Mexico, is on a four fight win streak and an all around beast. He has vicious power with solid standup keeping distance from fighters but also able to establish pressure early and being able to knockout opponents like Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini both in the first round. His ground game is also nothing to scoff at with his jiu jitsu and grappling style being fast paced and constantly moving tiring opponents out is a recipe for disaster for anyone who wants to try and keep pace. Keys to Victory: Keep the fight constantly moving and set the pace before Ortega can establish control with his jiu jitsu game.

Ortega is a UFC veteran and former title contender who was one guillotine away from finishing the great Alexander Volkanaski. Ortega is an all around talent in the UFC with exceptional standup but his main weapon of choice is his ground game and jiu jitsu. His transitions from position to position is lethal and once an arm or neck is out of place he is quick to capitalize shown in his win against Yair Rodriguez where he was able to slip in an arm triangle in the third round finishing the former interim champion. Keys to Victory: Get a takedown early and start working from the top and wear Lopes down with ground and pound and look for the submission early. 

Flyweight Title Bout

Co-Main Event

#1 Valentina “The Bullet” Shevchenko(-108) vs. C.  Alexa Grasso (-112)

Photo by ESPN.com

This trilogy fight will settle the score between the Kygristanian kickboxer Valentina Shevchenko and the Mexican boxer Alexa Grasso. Both women were the head coaches and the show The Ultimate Fighter 32 and have voiced their displeasure in each other and have promised to bring back the belt to their respective sides. Both fighters are the pinnacle of women’s MMA and look to showcase an absolute spectacle of performance after a Unanimous Draw in their last bout where Grasso kept her belt despite neither getting the win. 

Shevchenko the challenger and former champ defended her belt 7 times from 2018-2023 where she lost it to Grasso in a huge upset. Shevchenko is tied with Jose Aldo in fourth place for most title defenses in UFC history securing her spot in the UFC hall of fame after her retirement. The talented kickboxer has insane power in her legs and hands with her head and body kicks being lethal, being able to feint and surprise fighters with kicks from everywhere. She also loves get the ground and pound game active where her elbows are a problem being able to TKO fighters like Jessica Andrade by just ground and pound. Keys to Victory: Focus on those kicks and wear Grasso down, make it a marathon and keep the distance. 

Grasso, a former boxer who was picked up by the UFC back in 2016 has really evolved as a fighter improving her ground game significantly being able to mix it up when needed and really transforming herself into a grappling specialist training with a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist on this card as well in Diego Lopes. Before her last fight ending in a draw she was on a five fight win streak including her winning the belt from Shevchenko by rear naked choke in the 4th round at UFC 285. Do not deny her boxing because that is what sets her apart and her power can really show to be a problem for Shevchenko who must rely on her distance management and precision. Since moving up from 115 lb to 125 lb she has been able to put more power in her punches and take shots better than when she was at strawweight. Keys to Victory: Trust the boxing and keep pressure on early and keep Shevchenko’s back to the wall. She needs to keep her hands up and wait for good shots to the face and body.

Main Event

Bantamweight Title Bout

C. Sean O’Malley (-118) vs. #1 Merab Dvashvilli . (-102)

Photo by MMANYTT.com

This highly anticipated main event has been talked about since O’Malley beat former champion Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvashvilli’s training partner and friend. “Suga” Sean O’Malley is the UFC poster child and a certified star with his unique and colorful style mixed with quick witted responses on the microphone make him very marketable and attractive to fans who like the cocky arrogant style drawing similarities to the most marketable and popular UFC fighter of all time Conor Mcgregor. This fight has implications for Sean O’Malley to be in the conversation for the best ever in the bantamweight division who is unambiguously held by former champion Dominick Cruz. 

Sean O’Malleys style is so unique and strange that fighters have such a hard time managing distance and trying to get inside the pocket to combat the reach of O’Malley. Despite the skinny frame, O’Malley hits like a truck especially with that right hand showing it off in his title victory over Sterling where he caught him off a counter and put Sterling straight to the ground and finished him with heavy punches from above. He also showcased a lot of his skills against Marlon “Chito” Vera for his title defense with teaps, knees and combinations that had Vera moving backwards the entire time. His grappling hasn’t been tested much but sooner or later we are going to get an answer with Merab and his grappling going to play a factor. Keys to Victory: Get that knockout EARLY. Work those kicks in and look for that big right hand shot. Keeping the distance and conserving energy for those big shots to land.

Dvalishvili is a Georgian MMA fighter who has insane cardio. He likes to put the pace on his opponents whether it be the clinches or if he wants to work his grappling and high paced wrestling in. He is currently on a 10 fight win streak beating big names such as Henry Cejudo, Jose Aldo and Peter Yan all who were former champions. His finishing ability is questionable as he only has one finish being a knockout against Marlon Moraes at UFC 266 and all others being by decision. Don’t let that cloud the fact that this guy is dangerous especially for someone like O’Malley who hasn’t really been tested on the ground significantly enough to prove that he is an all around champion. On the flip side Merab has been stunned quite frequently despite not being finished in the UFC. Keys to Victory: Work the wrestling in from the start and work the game plan of cliches and wrestling. When striking, try to work as close as you can as O’Malley will have a harder time generating power up close. Keep that chin down and those hands ready to slip big shots away.