New Year, New Champions: Predicting the UFC Title Holders at the end of 2024

2024 is slated to be a historic year for mixed martial arts, particularly for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), which will be holding its 300th pay-per-view card on April 13. In 2023, there were five new UFC champions crowned. In this article, MMA on the Island’s Joe Frescott breaks down who he believes will be holding the belt in each of UFC’s 10 most active weight classes.

Flyweight: Alexandre pantoja

**#1 Contender: Muhammad Mokaev**

There aren’t many fighters who had a better 2023 than Brazil’s Alexandre Pantoja. It will be more of the same in 2024. (Photo Credit: Steve Marcus/Getty Images)

Coming into the year riding a three-fight winning streak, Pantoja was granted a title opportunity against former champion Brandon Moreno at UFC 290. The pair would go on to have one of the most entertaining title fights in UFC history, with Pantoja winning a razor-close split decision. His first title defense would be the second to last bout of 2023 in a rematch against Brandon Royval. Utilizing his superior grappling, Pantoja would retain his title via unanimous decision.

Looking to 2024, Pantoja will likely defend his belt twice, with the first being the winner of the #1 contender fight between Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval, who is stepping in on short notice for the injured Amir Albazi on February 24 in Mexico City. I’d favor Pantoja in a trilogy against either opponent, as he holds a significant grappling advantage against both. The opponent for his potential third title defense isn’t clear in the crowded Flyweight division, although the winner of Matteus Nicolau vs Manuel Kape this weekend could provide more clarity. Either way, I expect Pantoja to be one of the few to retain their belt this calendar year.

bantamweight: merab dvalishvili

**#1 Contender: Cory Sandhagen**

There will be no denying “The Machine” in 2024. (Photo Credit: Zuffa LLC)

Merab Dvalishvili showcased cardio unlike anything seen before in the octagon when he rag-dolled a former champion for five straight rounds in his bout against Petr Yan on March 11, 2023. The unanimous decision victory extended Merab’s win streak to nine straight and elevated him to the #2 ranked Bantamweight in the world, with former champion and teammate at Law MMA Alajamain Sterling being the only fighter ranked ahead of the Georgian native. With Sterling planning on making a run at Featherweight, the title picture was seemingly clear for Merab; or so we thought.

In a sport driven by promotion and narratives, the most deserving fighters don’t always get the opportunities they have seemingly earned. This is the case for Merab, as current champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley will defend his belt in a rematch against #6 ranked Marlon “Chito” Vera at UFC 299, who is 1-1 in his last two. Wanting to stay active, Merab will face former champion Henry Cejudo at UFC 298, with the winner slated to be next for the title shot. I believe “The Machine” will take care of the aging “Triple C,” and poses a poor stylistic matchup for the lengthy strikers in Vera and O’Malley, bringing the belt back to Long Island, NY.

Featherweight: Alexander Volkanovski

**#1 Contender: Max Holloway**

“The Great” will continue his reign of dominance in 2024. (Photo Credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

It feels like well over eleven months since we saw one of the greatest title fights in UFC history between the #1 and #2 pound-for-pound fighters in the world at UFC 284. Coming off of a fourth straight year of dominance at 145 lb, Alexander Volkanovski (Volk) shocked the MMA world when he delivered a vicious ground and pound to the seemingly unstoppable Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in the final seconds of the final round of their all-time classic bout at UFC 286. Despite being seconds away from a finish, Volk would lose on the scorecards to Makhachev and would get head kick knocked out (KO) in their rematch (which he took on two week’s notice) at UFC 294. Let’s not forget about the fight in between, as he defended his belt for the fifth time by finishing Yair Rodriguez via technical knockout (TKO) at UFC 290.

Volk will be the second champion to put his belt on the line in 2024, headlining UFC 298 against the undefeated #5 ranked Ilia Topuria. Topuria has crisp boxing and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ), making himself quite the threat for the current champion. Talent aside, it will be the mentality and fight IQ that will be the difference and reason Volk will come away with his sixth defense, as Topuria’s social media antics indicate he is overlooking the current champion. As for the rest of the year, Volk could face the winner of Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev next, which are both matchups that “The Great” will be favored to win.

Lightweight: Arman Tsarukyan

Coming into 2023, Arman Tsarukyan wasn’t on the radar for many UFC fans; that quickly changed. The Georgian native had to wait longer than expected for his first bout of 2023, as his main event bout with Renato Moicano scheduled for April was canceled due to injury. Lacking a ranked opponent willing to fight, Arman would return care of the unranked Joaquim Silva in June, finishing the veteran in the third round via KO/TKO. Tsarukyan would get his main event spotlight in December against veteran Beneil Dariush, and would make the most of it, finishing the bout in just over a minute and only needing eight significant strikes to do so.

Tsarukyan is set to face former lightweight champion and current #1 contender Charles Oliveria on April 13 at UFC 300. By far his toughest test to date, Arman will need to utilize his power and find a way to finish the always dangerous “Du Bronx,” whose title reign consisted of come-from-behind victories. Like Makhachev, I believe Tsarukyan will be able to hurt Oliveria and use his wrestling to stifle the comeback, leading him to the title shot against either current champion Islam Makhachev or the #2 ranked Justin Gaethje, who Islam plans to fight in June. A fight with Makhachev would be a rematch five years in the making, with Islam winning the first bout in a close decision and the pair earning fight of the night on April 20, 2019. Regardless of opponent, the 27-year-old has continued to show growth in each and every octagon appearance and has proven that he can compete with the best in the world.

Welterweight: Shavkat Rahkmonov

There aren’t many contenders that have looked more unstoppable than Kazakstan’s Shavkat Rahkmonov. A perfect 18-0 as a professional, the “Nomad” has yet to go the distance in any of his fights, including his six in the UFC. In 2023, Rahkmonov submitted two veterans: Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson utilizing different variations of a rear-naked choke. In both bouts, which took place at UFC 285 and UFC 296 respectively, the crafty veterans were able to stay competitive with impressive takedown defense and striking. That was not enough to stop Rahkamonov, as he would find the finish in each bout, starting with Neal, where he hurt the Texas native with a right hand before wrapping his arm around the stunned Neal and finding a modified standing rear-naked choke. Rahkmonov would face similar adversity against “Wonderboy,” failing on his first four takedown attempts before a slick trip against the fence in the second round ultimately led to the finish.

Currently ranked #3 in the Welterweight division, Rakhmonov can likely wait for his title opportunity later this year. Ahead of the Kazakstani is former champion and the #1 ranked Kamaru Usman, who lost via decision in his middleweight debut against Khamzat Chimaev and is not in the title picture at present. Behind him lies the fan-favorite (said no one until this very moment) #2 ranked Belal Muhammad, who is riding a nine-fight win streak and has been teased to be next for current champion Leon Edwards at UFC 300. If everything goes as planned, Rakhmonov could face the winner in the late summer/early fall with both matchups being favorable considering the grappling advantage over Edwards and the inability of Muhammad to finish fights.

Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev

**#1 Contender: Israel Adesanya**

A tumultuous 3 years leads to gold for one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. (Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

The ascension of Khamzat Chimaev was one of the most fascinating in the sport, especially considering it came shortly after the UFC made its return during the pandemic in 2020. After submitting John Philips in his debut on July 15, “Borz” stepped into the octagon 10 days later to face Rhys Mckee, who he also finished, this time by first-round KO/TKO. In less than two weeks, Chimaev had etched his name in history, having the fastest turnaround between victories in UFC history. Since then, Chimaev has rattled off five more wins, but has dealt with stretches have inactivity, a supposed “retirement” due to complications with COVID-19, and bizarre weight issues that have kept the Russian outside of the octagon. Khamzat was able to return from his over-year-long layoff at UFC 294, where he wrestled his way to a decision victory over former Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, who stepped up for the injured Paolo Costa on short notice.

Currently recovering from recent surgery that repaired a torn ligament in his hand stemming from the Usman bout, Khamzat doesn’t have a fight booked but made two interesting claims; first stating Instagram Live that he would love to fight on the historic UFC 300 card in December, and then stating on the “HM Podcast” that he was promised the winner of champion Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, who are set to headline the first PPV of the year at UFC 297. If either were true (emphasis on the '“IF”), that would set Chimaev up for a potential #1 contender fight on April 13 (potentially against Israel Adesanya) or a title bout later this year. Regardless of which option becomes available for Chimaev, there is no denying his talent, and if given a title opportunity this year, I am confident he will make the most of it.

Light Heavyweight: Alex Pereira

Not many champions can say they ended the year holding their second belt after losing their first and only title defense earlier that same calendar year. Nor can they say they did so after becoming UFC champion in just their eighth professional bout. “Poatan” can.

2023 did not start off the way Alex Pereira had intended. After becoming the 12th UFC Middleweight champion when he dethroned rival Israel Adesanya at UFC 281, Adesanya would get his revenge, sleeping the Brazilian at UFC 287 and reclaiming the title. Instead of taking time off, Pereira decided to move up a weight class and fight a former Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291 just four months after losing the Middleweight strap. “Poatan” would be able to evade the Polish power, escaping with the split decision victory in what was the closest fight of his career. This win would set Pereira up with an opportunity to compete for the vacant title at UFC 295. Standing in his way was Jiří Procházka, an unorthodox striker who was making his return after he had to relinquish the belt due to a shoulder injury that kept him out for over a year. Once again, “Poatan” proved why he is considered one of the most dangerous strikers in the sport, knocking out another former champion and claiming his second title in less than a year (364 days to be exact!).

Although not yet scheduled, Pereira will make his first title defense against Jamahal Hill, who also had to relinquish the title after he tore his Achilles this past summer. Lacking any grappling threat, this will make for an exciting striking clinic that I believe Pereira will have the edge in and find his third KO/TKO finish of a former champion. This would set “Poatan” up for one more defense in 2024, which could potentially be against the winner of Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker this weekend. Both fighters like to keep the fight standing and lack the power that Pereira possesses’ giving him the edge against either.

Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall

**#1 Contender: Ciryl Gane**

The real Heavyweight champion is crowned. (Photo Credit: Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)

There aren’t many Heavyweights in the history of the UFC that can do what Tom Aspinall does in every octagon appearance. The display of speed, power, crisp technique, and an underrated grappling game that Aspinall has shown in his seven UFC victories (which have yet to make it to the scorecards) makes him a prime candidate to be considered one of the next all-time greats. The Englishman made his return a year after a devasting knee injury that he suffered in the opening seconds of his fight with Curtis Blaydes in July 2022 with two bouts in 2023, with each not making it past the second minute of the first round. After dismantling Marcin Tybura in July, Aspinall would step up on short notice to face Sergei Pavlovich for the interim title at UFC 295 after Jon Jones backed out of his first title defense against Stipe Miocic due to injury. Pavlovich, who had yet to see a second round throughout his five-fight win streak, saw his four-year undefeated streak snapped when Aspinall connected on a clean right hand that finished the fight and elevated Aspinall to interim champion.

There is no denying that Aspinall’s next fight and UFC Heavyweight division as a whole is being held up by the UFC’s insistence on booking current champion Jon Jones vs. Heavyweight legend Stipe Miocic. Jones’ recovery from both pec and elbow surgery reportedly needs two to three months to recover, which would likely set the pair to square off in the summer. Although Aspinall has made his case to be Jon’s next opponent, both Jones and UFC President Dana White have insisted on the fight with Stipe, even though the title needs to be unified. That leaves Aspinall’s immediate future in limbo, as he will have to wait until after the Heavyweight’s fight in the summer to unify the belt. In all likelihood, the two legends could hang up the gloves and vacate the title after their fight in the summer, elevating Aspinall to champion without having to fight the winner. Regardless of what occurs in the coming months, I expect Aspinall to continue his stretch of dominance for years to come in a shallow Heavyweight division.

Women’s Strawweight: Tatiana Suarez

There isn’t a fighter on the roster who has had worse injury luck in recent years than the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. After winning “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, Suarez went on a four-fight win streak to start her UFC career that included two victories against future title holders in 2018, submitting current Flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and dominating former Strawweight champion Carla Esparza, forcing the official to stop the fight in the third. Suarez would tally one more victory in 2019 against Nina Nunes, winning via decision. This is where the string of injuries would begin, starting with a neck injury that held her out for two years. Gearing up for a return in 2021 against Roxanne Modafferi, Suarez suffered a knee injury before making the walk, leading to another two years of recovery. The California native finally made her return in 2023 with two impressive submission wins over Montana De La Rosa and Jessica Andrade which earned her a performance bonus in each.

Currently ranked #3 in Strawweight, Suarez is set to make the walk at UFC 298 against former title challenger and #4 ranked Amanda Lemos. With champion Zhang Weili putting her belt on the line against Yan Xiaonan at UFC 300, Suarez could find herself fighting the winner later this year if she defeats Lemos in February. Having a wrestling pedigree far superior to that of Lemos, Weili, and Xiaonan, I think Suarez gets her hand raised twice this calendar year, with the second being for UFC gold.

Women’s Flyweight: Alexa Grasso

It is safe to say that Alexa Grasso shocked the MMA community when she became the first to defeat Valentina Shevchenko in six years at UFC 285, ending the “Bullet’s” nine-fight winning streak. After pulling off what is widely regarded as one of the biggest upsets in women’s MMA, Grasso and Shevchenko ran it back for UFC Noche, in what turned out to be one of the best fights of the year. After five rounds of war, the fight went to the judge’s scorecards. To the surprise of many, it became the sixth title fight in UFC history to end in a draw after judge Mike Bell gave Grasso a 10-8 in a competitive fifth round. This was met with dismay by UFC President Dana White, who stated immediately after the fight that the trilogy would take place next.

The question for Grasso isn’t a matter of future opponent, but when the trilogy with Shevchenko will take place, as Grasso underwent surgery to repair a fractured hand she suffered in the second fight. When the fight eventually takes place, Grasso will come away victorious once again. Having proven that she is the superior striker at this point in her career, Grasso will need to avoid getting taken down, which she will be well-equipped for now knowing that is Shevchenko’s best path to victory. After the trilogy is completed, it will be #3 ranked Manon Fiorot or #2 ranked Erin Blanchfield next, with the two set to fight on March 30. As impressive as both women have looked thus far, Grasso has the tools to defeat either woman and will end the year the same way she started it: a champion.