NASCAR Playoff Bubble Tight With 3 Races To Go - Who Makes It, Who Doesn’t?

Heading into the final three races of the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series has seen 12 of its 16 available playoff spots already locked up. That leaves four entries up for grabs at Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington. Heading into this weekend, the cutline is as close as ever, with two drivers tied for the final transfer spot, and a couple more barely hanging on to a playoff spot. Five different drivers are in contention to point their way into the postseason, but only four openings are available, meaning that at least one of them won’t make it. Who are these drivers, and what odds do they have of making the NASCAR Playoffs this season?

Martin Truex Jr.

The one who can rest the easiest of all the bubble drivers is Mayetta, New Jersey’s Martin Truex Jr. The retiring Cup Series champion has put together yet another strong season in his storied career, and has checked all the boxes except for finding victory lane. Still, the 44 year-old has a 78 point cushion on the cutline, and is currently 13th in the standings. Truex doesn’t have to be spectacular by any means to lock up a playoff spot; in fact, he really just needs to avoid any catastrophic results. However, Joe Gibbs Racing is coming off a streak of engine failures, with the most recent one handing Truex a last place finish a week ago at Richmond. And looking ahead, Daytona is always willing and able to hand a top driver an underserved terrible result. So while Truex doesn’t have his work cut out for him like the other bubble drivers, he can’t quite take his playoff spot for granted just yet.

Ty Gibbs

Truex’s teammate, sophomore standout Ty Gibbs, is also on the right side of the cutline as things currently stand. But, just 18 points to the good, the 21 year-old will have to sweat things out far more than it initially looked like. Not that long ago, he was more than 100 points above the bubble, and looked to be cruising to his first playoff appearance. But then the JGR engine failures started happening, and Gibbs was an unfortunate victim at Pocono when he was forced to DNF in 27th place. Since then, he has finished 23rd at Indianapolis and 22nd at Richmond, placing him squarely in the dogfight for the final transfer places. The #19 team has shown speed all year, but the winning pace they demonstrated in the early portion of the season seems to have abandoned them as of late. Ty Gibbs should be able to skate through the final three races of the regular season and lock up a playoff spot, but if he wants to do that, he will need to clean up the sub-20th place results and start running closer to the front.

Bubba Wallace

By far the bubble driver with the most momentum, Bubba Wallace has shot himself up the standings in recent weeks to turn himself from a playoff hopeful into a playoff likely. Previously sitting 40 points behind the cutline, Wallace and the #23 team have found their form just in the nick of time. Their last five results have been 7th, 13th, 10th, 5th, and 4th, respectively. In most of these races, they earned stage points as well. All of a sudden, a team that looked destined to miss the postseason have firmly established themselves as a favorite to take one of the remaining playoff spots. Still, even with all his recent success, Wallace lies just three points above the cutline heading into Michigan. While the results have been stellar lately, he will need to keep up this pace all the way through Darlington if he wants to complete his impressive run into the postseason. The momentum is certainly on his side, and while Bubba Wallace currently sits 15th in the standings, he could very well improve on that before season’s end by either scoring a boatload of points, or finding victory lane for the first time in 2024.

Chris Buescher

Currently 16th and the last one in, RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher likely won’t be sleeping comfortably much in the next three weeks. After winning three races last year and making the Round of 8, the Prosper, Texas native is cutting things much closer this time around. At the moment, he is tied in points for the final transfer spot. It’s not all doom and gloom for Buescher, however, as the three remaining regular season races line up better for him than any other bubble driver. He took victory at both Michigan and Daytona last season, and was extremely close to winning at Darlington this past spring. And even last year, the #17 team didn’t hit their peak until a few weeks before the playoffs started, which is when they went on their winning streak. Buescher has pulled off late-season wins before, and in 2024, he might need to do it again if he wants to qualify for the playoffs. Stage points will be critical for him, and if he is able to bank a lot of them, there is still a good chance he makes it in without a victory. But Chris Buescher undoubtedly has the next three weeks circled as opportunities to win and lock himself into the postseason.

Ross Chastain

Despite high expectations going into 2024, Ross Chastain is on the outside looking in with just three races remaining. Having won two races in back-to-back years, a playoff berth for the #1 Trackhouse team was expected heading into this season. There is still a good chance it comes to fruition, as Chastain is currently tied in points with Chris Buescher for 16th place. But, having to duel another driver for the final playoff spot is likely not what the Alva, Florida native had in mind a few months ago. His pace hasn’t been awful in recent weeks, but it has been somewhat disappointing. What has really derailed his playoff chances have been DNFs, as crashes at both Nashville and Pocono have left Chastain and crew chief Phil Surgen with a lot of work to do. They are no strangers to winning, and it is looking increasingly more and more likely that that is what they will have to do if they want to make this year’s postseason. But outscoring Chris Buescher in the final three regular season races is not an undoable task, and Chastain is certainly motivated to make it happen.

Bonus: The Spoiler

While those are the only five drivers who have a realistic shot of pointing their way into the playoffs, the entire full-time Cup field still has an outside chance of making it. With the win-and-you’re-in system, no one is fully out of the running until the checkered flag falls at Darlington. Someone deep in the points could come from out of nowhere and steal a win to lock themselves into the postseason. Austin Dillon almost pulled this feat off at Richmond, and if not for NASCAR encumbering his victory due to reckless driving, he would have completely blown up the playoff picture. And with three regular season races left, that means everyone who isn’t already locked in still has three chances remaining to win their way in. Not only that, but Daytona looms just one week away, a race that quite literally anyone can win. Drivers who are nowhere near the cutline are undoubtedly eyeing that race as their chance to play spoiler and steal a playoff spot in the dying breaths of the regular season. Big names such as Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell, and Erik Jones are nowhere near the cutline, and their only shot at making the postseason is to win one of these next three races. If that happens, the entire playoff picture will be flipped completely on its head.

Who do you think will claim the final four spots in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs?

NASCAR Playoff Bubble Tight With 3 Races To Go - Who Makes It, Who Doesn’t?

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