Conor McGregor, the biggest star the sport of Mixed Martial Arts has ever seen, has not fought since July of last year, when he broke his tibia and lost the third leg (no pun intended) of his trilogy with Dustin Poirier. His bout before that was another defeat at the hands of Poirier, and he has lost 3 of his last 4 fights since dominating Eddie Alavarez at Madison Square Garden, an event that took place more than 5 years ago! So what caliber of fighter is the current Conor McGregror, and if he really is a shell of his former self, how does he fit into the current MMA landscape?

Part of the motivation for writing this article was Conor’s recent call out of Kamaru Usman, saying that he would like to take on the welterweight champion in his return to the octagon. I think any rational MMA fan would rather not see that fight, as it is almost guaranteed to be a matchup that Usman dominates. That’s putting aside the fact that Conor’s last win at 170 pounds was against 36 year old Donald Cerrone. Fans of the UFC understand that merit doesn’t always determine who gets a title shot, and when one of the fighters in question is the biggest money maker the UFC have ever had, then said fighter is going to get priority. I have my doubts that this fight will happen, simply because Kamaru Usman is lined up to defend his title against Leon Edwards some time in July, and I doubt that Conor will want to wait that long, but who knows. Ultimately, I’d be a fool to try and get inside the mind of Conor McGregor, and he definitely looks bigger in recent pictures of him, lending credence to the idea he’s bulking up for a move to 170. However, let’s put his callout of Usman aside, and let’s try and figure out what his most likely next move will be in his most likely weight class, lightweight.

Charles Oliveira will defend his UFC Lightweight title against Justin Gaethje on May 7, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Conor fed to the winner of that matchup. While Conor wouldn't be favored in a fight against Oliveira or Justin, there’s a part of me that thinks Conor would have a decent chance in either of those matchups. Both Oliveira and Justin get hit a lot, and with Conor’s power in his left hand, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him put either of them to sleep. It should be said that this is far from the most likely outcome, as I think it is much more likely that Conor today is a far cry from the peak Conor we saw light up Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez, and that is most likely that the sport has passed him by. Whether that is because the fame and fortune has killed his hunger or that he is simply on the wrong side of the aging curve, I think it is very unlikely that we see a UFC belt wrapped around Conor’s belt in the future. If Conor doesn’t fight for the belt next, I think it’s most likely we see him complete his trilogy with Nate Diaz, or that he gets matched up with one of the more exciting fighters in the lightweight division such as Michael Chandler or Tony Ferguson. I know that a fight with Islam Makhachev would be enticing to Conor and the UFC because of Islam’s connection with Khabib, but in all honesty, I have no interest in seeing that matchup. I think Conor would get, as Khabib would say, “smeshed” if those two ever fight, and I think much more exciting bouts could be made with Conor in the mix. At the end of the day, it’s almost impossible to know what Conor’s next move will be, as I feel he is as likely to box Jake Paul as he is to fight for a title again. Despite the uncertainty, we can be certain that whenever and whomever he fights, he’s going to make some people very rich along the way.