Though the 2022 F1 season is yet to begin, it is almost never too early to begin speculating about what the future driver market will look like, as the time period where new contracts are offered and signed, or “silly season” as the F1 media likes to call it, will soon be upon us. In this article, I will go team by team to try and preview what the future driver market will look like.

McLaren

Lando Norris is under contract until at least 2025, and considering his stellar performances last year, I’m sure McLaren will be doing everything in their power to ensure Lando will be there for the foreseeable future. As for Daniel Ricciardo, his performances last year were a long way off from his normal elite standards, and his contract ends in 2023 with an option for Daniel to extend it if he wishes. Could Daniel’s lackluster drives just come down to the fact that he was in a new car and going up against an extremely talented rising star in Lando Norris? Maybe, but if his performances don’t improve this year, expect McLaren to look for ways to bring a new driver into their 2nd seat.

Aston Martin

Aston have one of the stranger driver arrangements on the grid, as one of their seats is currently occupied by Lance Stroll, son of Lawrence Stroll who has a massive financial stake in the team. Because of that, one can assume that Lance will be an Aston driver for at least the foreseeable future. Aston’s second seat is where the situation becomes a bit more hazy, as Sebastian Vettel’s contract ends at the end of this year, and it is a bit difficult to judge where Vettel currently is as a driver. He struggled massively towards the end of his tenure with Ferrari, partly because of the emergence of Charles Leclerc and partly because of the limitations of the Ferrari car in 2020. Vettel performed well enough last year, but again it is hard to judge his performance when Aston Martin struggled to even keep up with the midifield pack. Who Sebastian Vettel, a four time world champion, currently is as a driver is a bit of a mystery, and it’s also unclear if Vettel even has an interest in racing past this year. My prediction would be that Vettel is offered a seat at Aston next year, an opportunity he will take unless he decides to retire instead.

Alpine

One of Alpine’s seats is occupied by Esteban Ocon, who had a very good 2021 and is under contract until 2024. Due to his impressive performances and French heritage, one can assume that the French automaker will keep Ocon on for the foreseeable future. As for Alpine’s second seat, we see some parallels with the situation at Aston Martin. Fernando Alonso, a two time world champion, will run down his contract at the end of this year, and it is unclear what the future holds for him. To be fair to him, he had an impressive 2021, and due to his star power and marketability, you would assume that a seat at Alpine will be there for him as long as he wants it. If Alonso does decide to retire, expect Alpine to make an aggressive move for the talented Frenchman Pierre Gasly, who seems to be outgrowing his role at AlphaTauri. Alpine might also promote Oscar Piastri, their current reserve driver who’s had a spotless junior career so far, winning Formula Eurocup, Formula 3, and Formula 2 in consecutive years.

Alfa Romeo

Alfa Romeo will have an all new driver lineup this year, though the two drivers they brought on differ massively. Their presumed number one driver will be Valterri Bottas, who arrives after spending a couple years partnering Lewis Hamilton in the Mercedes. While Bottas was never able to seriously challenge Hamilton, he did show he had some serious pace, especially in qualifying, and I expect him to perform well if Alfa can give him a platform to succeed. His contract is until 2024, and I expect him to have a seat at Alfa open for him for as long as he wants to be there. The other driver they brought in is Guanyu Zhou, a Chinese driver who comes in with some serious financial backing and pretty solid results in F2. His results in the junior series normally wouldn’t be enough to get him an F1 seat, but his financial backers and the opportunity to break into the Chinese market were attractive enough for Alfa Romeo to bring him on. He is currently only one a one year deal, so if he really struggles in his first year in a F1 car, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alfa replace him with a different highly touted Ferrari junior, such as Callum Illot or Robert Shwartzman.

Haas

The situation at Haas seemed pretty straightforward until this week, as the events unfolding in Ukraine may have an effect on Haas’ driver lineup. One of their drivers, Nikita Mazepin, is a pay driver who has his seat because of massive sums of money Mazepin’s dad’s company, a Russian fertilizer company called Uralkali, is paying to sponsor Haas. However, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Haas decided to remove all Uralkali branding from their livery on the final days of testing, and now there are some doubts that Haas will continue with Uralkali moving forward. If Uralkali is no longer able to sponsor Haas, then Mazepin will be of no use to the American racing team. The other seat at Haas is occupied by Mick Schumacher, a Ferrari junior who had about as good a season as you can have in the disaster class of a car that was last year’s Haas. His contract is up at the end of this year, but expect him to be renewed if no opportunities for him to move into a better car are made available.

Williams

The Williams’ driver lineup should be one of the more stable lineups on the grid moving forward, despite the fact that both of their drivers are on one year deals. Nicholas Latifi will be sure to keep his seat due to the financial backing his father is providing to the team through sponsorships, though Latifi has shown he has potential to be more than just a “pay to play driver”. Alex Albon is making his return to F1 with Williams after being booted from his Red Bull seat, and although he is only on a one year deal, I expect his F1 comeback to be a successful one and for him to occupy the seat at Williams for the foreseeable future. 

Ferrari

Ferrari’s lineup in the years to come seems to be pretty set in stone, as they are lucky enough to have one of the stronger driver pairings on the grid. Occupying one of their seats is Charles Leclerc, the Ferrari golden boy who tore through the junior ranks before making his way to the Ferrari seat where he outdrove his teammate, the four time world champion Sebastian Vettel. Leclerc is under contract until 2024, so expect him to be at Ferrari for a while. The other Ferrari seat is occupied by Carlos Sainz, who had a stellar season last year, and as long as he continues to drive at an elite level, he should be able to stave off any efforts to get Mick Schumacher into that second Ferrari seat.

Mercedes

The reigning Constructor’s World Champions bring one new face into their 2022 driver lineup, as George Russell will replace the outgoing Valterri Bottas. He will partner the F1 great Lewis Hamilton, who returns to Mercedes despite speculation he would retire this offseason. Russell comes in with an impressive CV, but it will be a massive challenge for him to race alongside Lewis. Time will tell if he will wilt under the pressure, or take it to his world champion teammate, much like Lewis Hamilton did when he came into McLaren to partner Fernando Alonso.

Red Bull

Red Bull’s number one seat is occupied by the newly crowned World Champion, Max Verstappen, so I don’t think there is much to say about his situation other than that he will have a seat available for him at Red Bull as long as he wants it. It is Red Bull’s second seat where things get a bit more interesting. The second RB seat has been seen as a bit of a curse since Daniel Ricciardo departed for Renault in 2019, as both Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon struggled to acclimate to the high pressure Red Bull environment, and both were booted from their seat. Segio Perez was put into the second seat at Red Bull after years of stellar performances with Racing Point/Force India, and while he struggled at times, especially in qualifying, he ultimately performed considerably better than Gasly or Albon ever did, and his holding up of Hamilton in the finale at Abu Dhabi ultimately was crucial to allowing Verstappen to take the championship. If he can perform better in qualifying while keeping his solid race pace, Red Bull will be hoping that their issues with their second seat will finally be solved. Perez’s contract is up at the end of this year, so if he does falter, expect Red Bull to look outside their driver academy to fill their second seat, as Pierre Gasly has struggled in the past when put into the Red Bull and Yuki Tsunoda has not shown he’s ready for a step up from the AlphaTauri.

AlphaTauri

Speaking of Yuki Tsunoda and Pierre Gasly, we finally arrive at AlphaTauri, Red Bull’s “sister team”. Gasly was once again phenomenal last year, prompting many to wonder what his future will hold. It seems unlikely he will be given another chance in the Red Bull, so where can he go from here? Like I mentioned earlier, Alpine seems like an obvious choice due to the French connection, however if Fernando Alonso wants to continue racing for a few more years or Alpine decide they would rather promote their highly touted junior, Oscar Piastri, than I don’t really see any place for Gasly to go, unless a massive shakeup occurs such as Hamilton leaving Mercedes or Ricciardo being dumped from his McLaren seat. As for Yuki Tsunoda, his first year in F1 was far from ideal, as he struggled to keep pace with his vastly more experienced teammate. However, Yuki’s performances did improve towards the end last season, so he will be hoping to carry that momentum into this year so as to avoid the aggressive driver replacement the Red Bull management has shown they have no qualms about making.