In a normal year we’d be just weeks away from the sound of cracking bats and cleats bouncing off of first base. 

But with little progress being made in the latest bargaining session between the Players Association and Major League Baseball's bargaining representatives, a delayed spring training seems all but inevitable.

With that sad reality beginning to set in with fans, it helps to look ahead to the eventual return to baseball. And for Pirates fans, it is a pivotal year for the team’s rebuild and accession towards competitiveness. 

That step towards being a playoff contender starts with the rotation. 

So who will be the opening day starter for the Pirates? 

The pitcher who throws the first pitch of the season for a team is usually considered the team’s best pitcher. He is often considered the team’s number one starter. 

By the end of the 2021 season Pittsburgh didn’t have much of a rotation. Tyler Anderson, one of their most solid arms in the rotation, was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. J.T. Brubaker started the season hot only to fall off halfway through and end up on the injured list. 

Mitch Keller had 23 starts, the most in his three seasons in the majors, but he struggled to remain consistent and continued to have control issues. 

That left a bunch of young, upcoming pitchers without much experience. 

Wil Crowe, in his rookie season, had the most starts among all Pirates pitchers. It was a volatile season for Crowe, who gave up 25 home runs in his 25 starts and finished the season with a 5.48 ERA. But he showed a solid stretch from the middle of June to the end of July where he only allowed 18 runs over 40.2 innings. 

Max Kranick showed promise in his debut tossing five perfect innings, but he struggled in his other eight starts as he alternated between Indianapolis and the majors. 

Bryse Wilson and Dillion Peters both showed signs of promise. Wilson had games where he looked like a solid, back-end of the rotation player, but he also had games where it looked like he’d eventually become a bullpen arm. Peters showed promise in his short amount of starts with the Pirates. 

But neither player saw enough time to be seriously considered as an opening day starter. Not yet anyway. 

Then there were the two new acquisitions the Pirates made to bolster their rotation. Zach Thompson was sent to the team in the Jacob Stallings trade with the Marlins. Thompson made his major league debut last season after spending the first seven seasons of his career in the minor leagues. He posted a 3.24 ERA in the 75 innings he pitched. He only allowed six home runs, and he struck out 66 batters.

The other new player is Jose Quintana, who the Pirates signed to a one-year contract. Quintana was an All-Star in 2016 and posted average numbers until 2019. But he has struggled in the last two seasons and at the age of 33 it remains to be seen if he can bounce back to those glory days with the White Sox. 

While both players have the potential to become a great rotation arm, especially Thompson, it would be surprising to see the Pirates tap either of these guys for opening day.

Miguel Yajure and Roansy Contreas are both expected to be in the rotation early in the season, and it is possible that Yajure, who struggled in the two late starts he made at the end of a 2021 season, is in the rotation to start the year after spending most of last season on the IL. 

So out of all these pitchers, who is most likely to take the mound on opening day?

It comes down to two pitchers: Brubaker and Keller. 

Brubaker was, at one point, the team’s best pitcher. Through the middle of June he had a 3.77 ERA and was holding opposing batters to a .295 OBP. But from June 26th to his last start of the season he had a 7.52 ERA and allowed a .349 OBP. 

Keller remained one of the most inconsistent pitchers in all of baseball. In 13 of his 23 starts he gave up 3 runs or less. In the other 10 starts he gave up 4 or more runs, and he would often alternate between the two kinds of starts. No one knew which Mitch Keller would show up that day. 

Keller showed a lot of potential in his good starts, and if he can find a way to remain consistent he’ll become a huge part of the starting rotation.

But until he is able to keep up a string of quality starts it is hard to place him as the opening day starter.

Brubaker, despite his tough stretch, put together nearly three straight months of consistent pitching. And home runs were a big part of his struggle as he gave up at least one home run in seven of his last 10 starts. Two of those three starts without a home run ended in a Pirates victory.

He also had a great minor league career suggesting his hot start wasn’t just a fluke.  On a lot of teams he could be in the bottom three of the rotation, but on the Pirates he is their number one.

And for now Brubaker is the frontrunner to be the starter on opening day, whenever that is.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference