Which Teams Should Red Sox Fans Hope to Play in the AL Wild Card?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays look to mash their way into the playoffs and scare opponents with their power hungry offense.
No frontrunners exist for the AL Wild Card, as 5 teams are within 3 games of the Wild Card. Two divisions are the cogs in the Wild Card race between the AL East and the AL West, all with similar records, speaking to the parity of the AL Central and no middle-of-the-pack teams in the East or West. The Red Sox will have to play a playoff-worthy team in the Wild Card this year for the right to play deep into the playoffs.
As I mentioned in the AL East podcast this week with 358 Baseball, the game will be competitive no matter who the Red Sox end up playing, if they make it at all. All these teams have a right to be in the postseason, but which ones will end in a Red Sox victory?
Fearsome Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has been one of a few bright spots for the Yankees offense.
New York Yankees
The good: The New York Yankees may be the most inconsistent team in all of MLB this year. Before the trade deadline, the Yankees were a middle-of-the-road baseball team and then spun off a 13-game win streak. Since then, the Yankees have cooled off considerably and dropped their last 7. Aside from Aaron Judge, their offensive production is one of the worst in MLB, despite leading MLB in walks. The Yankees tend to hit into double plays, which should benefit their opponent.
The bad: The Yankees have an elite starter in a one-game playoff in Gerrit Cole. Cole can dominate any game that he takes the hill. Despite their offensive ineptitude, their lineup is frightening on paper. Navigating a balanced Yankees lineup using the bullpen may not be something the Red Sox management wishes to do during a one-game playoff.
Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray would not be a welcome sight for opposing hitters in the playoffs.
Toronto Blue Jays
The good: Toronto’s bullpen is thin beyond closer Jordan Romano and reliever Adam Cimber. If the Red Sox were to play Toronto, they might wish to knock Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray out of the game through working counts.
The bad: There is an argument to be made that Toronto has the best offense in MLB. Their young offensive core can go toe-to-toe against any pitching staff and any lead. The Blue Jays also have elite starting pitching with the addition of Jose Berrios. The Blue Jays may move some of their starters to the bullpen for the one-game playoff to eliminate their bullpen shortcomings.
Paul Sewald has been lights out in the Mariners bullpen and leads one of the best units in the league.
Seattle Mariners
The good: The Mariners do not have an elite starter at the top of their rotation, so the Red Sox could hypothetically jump on the opposing Mariners starter early. The Mariners lineup strikes out in the upper echelon, with 4 players striking out north of 100 times.
The bad: The Mariners have a deep lineup that does not have a weak spot. Their hitters can hit for power and have speed, especially from 2nd baseman Dylan Moore, which could hurt the Red Sox bad throwing catchers’ arms. The Mariners also have the best bullpen in MLB, so they can shorten games if given a lead. The chances of the Red Sox beating the Mariners in a bullpen game are not very high.
The Athletics have one of the best starting rotations in MLB and any of their top 4 starters, including Chris Bassitt, could potentially start in a Wild Card game.
Oakland Athletics
The good: The Athletics have a similar problem to that of the Mariners, in that their batters strike out at a high rate. Aside from that, the Athletics bullpen does not have strikeout machines. The Red Sox could hit the ball in play against Oakland relievers.
The bad: The Athletics are a well-rounded team, as they pitch and hit well. They have elite starting pitchers and could go with Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, or James Kaprielian. Despite low batting averages, the Athletics have the power numbers to slug themselves to a victory.
Each AL Wild Card contender has a decent chance to defeat Boston on a typical night, not favoring the Red Sox. The Yankees have the most flaws out of any of the teams, and it would be great for the Red Sox to eliminate their rival this year. Furthermore, they have familiarity with Gerrit Cole and the Yankees roster. Therefore, the Red Sox may perform better against the Yankees than every other team. No matter how you look at it, the AL Wild Card race will be one to monitor, and each of these teams has a reasonable chance of getting hot in time for the playoffs.
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