The 2022 MLB season saw a new young, energetic, and fast-paced team emerge in the American League West: the Seattle Mariners. Led by American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez, the team posted a solid record of 90-72, securing a wild-card berth and ending a 21-year postseason drought for the organization.

In the postseason, Seattle defeated the Toronto Blue Jays in the wild card and would later get swept by the eventual champions in the Houston Astros. Although the team ran out of magic, hopes were high for the Mariners to establish themselves as a legit contender in the following season.

Many experts had bought into the Seattle hype train, with Fox Sports having the Mariners at the eighth-best odds to win the World Series during their preview of the 2023 MLB season.

At this point in the season however, fans and experts could not have been more wrong in envisioning this dream scenario.

With only three series left before the All-Star break in July, Seattle currently sits at an underwhelming 38-41 record, good enough for fourth place in the highly competitive American League West division. The team sits 9.5 games back from the division lead and 5.5 games back out of a potential wild card berth.

With the majority of last year’s core being retained for the 2023 season and the addition of solid veterans, it’s puzzling how the Mariners went from an explosive offense in 2022 to a now stagnant unit on the offensive side of the ball.

To put it simply, Seattle’s offense has been awful. For the 2022 season, the team ranked 13th in team OPS, 9th in home runs, 16th in OBP, and 16th in slugging. Seattle boasted a league average offense, who thrived off of the long-ball, with Eugenio Suárez, Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Ty France hitting over 20 home runs on the year.

This year, Seattle ranks 24th in OPS, 16th in home runs, 24th in OBP, and 25th in slugging, labeling the Mariners as a below average offense and one of the worst in the league. Seattle’s home run production has declined severely, and the rest of the team has not been able to put forth consistent offense.

Of the players who hit 20 home runs for the ball club last year, Ty France, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodríguez have seen a sharp decline in their slugging, batting average and OPS on the year, and each has an OPS+ much lower than the previous year.

The fourth, Eugenio Suárez has been a below average hitter by OPS+ measures and hasn’t even cracked ten home runs as the All-Star Break approaches. Seattle’s best offensive players have been underperforming by the standards they set the previous year, and it has hindered the team’s ability to consistently put runs on the board, as the Mariners rank 18th in RBIs on the year.

To put it simply, Seattle’s offense has been hitting fewer home runs, driving in less runs, and striking out more often, leading to a down year for many of their stars from the 2022 campaign.

While many of the 2022 Mariners have seen regression in 2023, the new members of the club have also struggled on the year thus far.

After second basemen Adam Frazier, outfielder Mitch Haniger, and designated hitter Carlos Santana left the team in the 2022 offseason, Seattle replaced them with Kolten Wong, Teoscar Hernández, and AJ Pollock.

Both Wong and Pollock have been awful, as they have posted slash lines of .162/.244/.211 and .155/.215/.291 respectively and both have an OPS+ that is below league average. Wong and Pollock’s defense haven’t provided much impact for Seattle either, as they both have negative WARs on the season for their lackluster offensive production.

Hernández has been the best of the offseason signings, posting an OPS+ that is 9% better than league average and also has a team leading 15 home runs on the year. However, he leads the league in hitter strikeouts with 107 before the All-Star break, and has seen a decline in his RBI total from his previous years in Toronto.

The lone bright spots on the offense have been outfielder Jarred Kelenic and rookie José Caballero. Kelenic has statistically been the best hitter on the team by OPS+ standards, leads the team in OPS and slugging of the regular starters and has provided above average defense in left field for the ball club.

Caballero has replaced the underperforming Kolten Wong at second base and has already stolen 11 bases in 50 games and leads the Mariners in on-base percentage.

The best offensive players for Seattle statistically have been the younger talents, but the veteran players will have to step up to allow the team to make a push for October for the second consecutive year.

The one aspect of the team that could save the Mariners’ season is their excellent pitching staff. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have headlined a five-man rotation that ranks 9th in ERA, 1st in WHIP, and 5th in opponent batting average.

While veteran Chris Flexen was DFA’d earlier in the season, rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo have taken their places, boasting high strikeout rates and above-average FIPs, indicating that their bloated ERAs do not accurately reflect how well the rookies have pitched, as many runs have scored on plays that were out of their control.

Seattle’s bullpen has been solid as well, ranking 5th in ERA, 14th in WHIP, and 12th in opponent batting average. Paul Sewald has established himself as a reliable closer, and Matt Brash has been one of the best relievers in baseball at getting strikeouts and preventing batters from barreling up the ball. Since returning from injury in June, Andrés Muñoz has pitched 11 consecutive scoreless innings of relief. Off-season pick ups of Gabe Speier, Trevor Gott, and Justin Topa have proven themselves to be reliable workhorse arms for a bullpen that rarely gives up runs.

Pitching has certainly not been the issue for these Seattle Mariners. However, as the game of baseball goes, teams will always find ways to score runs, and the pitching staff can’t always shut out an opponent or hold them to few runs every single game. The offense needs to provide effective run support to win games at the major league level, and Seattle has not done that at all this year.

With the Angels and Rangers suddenly emerging as dark-horse candidates to overthrow the Astros’ reign of the AL West, Seattle’s offense needs to figure things out fast after the All-Star break if they want to have another shot at October baseball.