What Do You Pay Shohei Ohtani?
Photo courtesy of Ashley Landis | Associated Press Photo
Shohei Ohtani is undoubtedly the best player in baseball. Social media has tried to underplay Ohtani's greatness numerous times, but "Tungsten Arm O'Doyle" has been a one-of-a-kind player that has dominated both sides of the ball, a feat we have not seen since Babe Ruth's playing days.
Ohtani entered the 2023 MLB season in a contract year with the Angels, as he signed a one-year, $30 million contract in October with the club as an agreement to avoid salary arbitration hearings in the following offseason. In his contract year so far, he has not disappointed.
Ohtani has been the best hitter in baseball before the All-Star break and a top-tier pitcher in the American League. He sits atop the MLB in wins-above-replacement (WAR) with a staggering 6.7 from compiling his pitching and hitting numbers. To put this into perspective, the National League MVP favorite Ronald Acuña Jr is in second place with a WAR of 4.9 as he continues to have a career year for the Atlanta Braves.
Ohtani leads the league in home runs, RBIs, slugging, OPS, and OPS+, which has suggested him to be 88% better than the league-average hitter. On the pitching side, Ohtani ranks third in strikeouts, 14th in ERA, and first in strikeouts per nine innings. He is having an even better year than his 2021 MVP season, and with free agency and trade rumors buzzing around the Angels and Ohtani, it remains a mystery what a contract offer to the two-way star could look like.
The largest free-agency contracts for both a pitcher and position player in MLB history both belong to current stars of the New York Yankees, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole.
Following Judge’s record-breaking MVP season in 2022, the Yankees shelled out the biggest contract to a free agent in MLB history, giving the captain a nine-year, $360 million contract in the offseason, the largest of any position player who entered free agency.
Photo courtesy of Frank Franklin II | Associated Press
Judge had been living up to that contract offer in 2023, but a toe injury has sidelined the slugger for an extended period of a time, with no timetable of a return available. Judge posted a slash line of .291/.404/.674 with an OPS of 1.078 and also hit 19 home runs in his 49 games of action. While Judge has been worth every penny when healthy, his nagging injuries could see this as a potential overbuy when it is all said and done.
Ohtani has outperformed Judge on the year thus far and has played in 82 of the 84 games the Angels have played on the season, besting Judge’s durability and hitting statistics in the 2023 MLB season. When comparing Judge’s 2022 first-half statistics to Ohtani’s stats right now, Ohtani has posted a higher batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS than Judge in his contract year, which turned out to be a historic year for the Yankee captain. The story for Judge’s free agency the following offseason is known: a massive payday. For Ohtani, an even bigger payday will likely be coming.
And that doesn’t even take his pitching comparisons into consideration.
Gerrit Cole signed a record-breaking, nine-year, $324 million in 2019 after he became a free agent, the largest free agency contract for a pitcher in MLB history.
Photo courtesy of Karen Warren | Houston Chronicle
Cole’s contract year in 2019 was the best of his career. The righty finished second-place in the Cy Young voting behind teammate Justin Verlander with a 20-5 record, 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 326 punch-outs. In the offseason after what was certainly Cole’s best year with Houston, he earned himself a hefty paycheck with the New York Yankees.
When comparing Ohtani’s and Cole’s numbers thus far in Ohtani’s contract year, it is evident that Cole is the better pitcher of the duo. However, Ohtani’s statistics are similar to Cole’s from 2019, as the two boast a similar strikeout and hits per nine innings rate.
The one upside Ohtani has on Cole from his contract year is the offensive prowess he displays, adding value to his potential contract.
With both pitchers featuring similar pitches, such as a high 90s fastball, devastating curveball and cutter, the two post an eerie similarity as dominant, power pitchers who look to challenge and strike hitters out.
Ohtani’s pitch mix and strikeout rates make him an enticing pitcher to a team who is in need for an ace that provides durability and offense to the table as well.
Ohtani has outperformed or had similar numbers to both Judge and Cole in their contract years. Both earned large paydays for their performances and value they brought to the field in their contract years. However, both do not display the two-way prowess that Ohtani brings to the table. With one player having both the value of 2022 Aaron Judge and 2019 Gerrit Cole, it is likely that someone will shell out a record-breaking contract to the two-way superstar.
And, advanced analytics appear to support this thought.
Sports contract database Spotrac.com ran Ohtani’s statistics through their contract projection model to create an accurate estimate of what a free agency contract could look like for Ohtani as both a standalone pitcher and standalone batter.
The model valued Ohtani’s pitching to be worth a six-year, $202 million contract, while his hitting was valued to be worth a nine-year, $326 million contract. When those contracts are combined, Ohtani could be potentially worth a record-breaking $526 million for an extended amount of years.
Paying Ohtani a contract like this would likely immediately bury a team’s cap space and place them over the luxury tax threshold of $233 million in salaries. However, Ohtani’s impact on games and the value he brings to the table far outweighs these penalties the winner of the Ohtani sweepstakes will endure.
It will be interesting to see how Ohtani, the Angels and the rest of the MLB handle his upcoming free agency and contract negotiations. For now, we have to speculate about where his next destination will be, and how much a team will spend on the two-way superstar from Japan.
