The Twins are Failing to Distance Themselves from Mediocrity
Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn
The 2023 MLB season is still young in early June, but the AL Central has yet to see a team emerge as a favorite to win the division. Through June 4, the Minnesota Twins lead the division with a record of 31-29. The Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers are both 3.5 games back, the Chicago White Sox 5.5 games back, and the Kansas City Royals 12.5 games back.
Furthermore, the Tigers are bound to fall further back with lengthy injured list (IL) stints for emerging star center fielder Riley Greene and Cy Young candidate Eduardo Rodriguez. On the surface, this all should be good news for fans of the Minnesota Twins, who haven’t been to the playoffs since 2020. Despite the Twins receiving numerous gifts from the baseball gods, it’s difficult to be sold on them punching a ticket to the postseason.
First and foremost, the pitching staff is guiding the ship. Starters Sonny Gray (4-1) and Joe Ryan (7-3) are leading the way and making strong arguments for the AL Cy Young Award. Through 12 games, Gray has a strong 2.05 ERA through 67 innings for a 2.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Gray has also avoided the long ball, allowing only one home run through 279 batters. Ryan has also been impressive too with a 2.76 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 71.2 innings for a 2.1 WAR. Pablo Lopez has faltered as of late after a hot start, but Bailey Ober (3-2) and Louis Varland (3-1) have held their own with low ERA’s.
Aside from the flamethrowing closer Jhoan Duran (1.17 ERA and 8 Saves), the bullpen has looked pretty average. Last year’s trade deadline acquisition of closer Jorge Lopez has looked disappointing, but there’s still time for him to turn things around. The defense as a whole has been strong, allowing 222 runs through 60 games (second best in the MLB behind the Houston Astros).
Despite all the overall success the pitching staff has enjoyed, the offense has yet to arrive consistently. The Twins’ leading position players in WAR are… utilityman Willi Castro (1.1) and backup catcher Ryan Jeffers (1.1). Seriously? Production from shortstop Carlos Correa, who reupped with the team this past offseason with a 6-year, $200 million pact, has been hard to come by with a .207/.299/.372 slash line. Center fielder Byron Buxton, who some argue is an All-Star when healthy, has finally been healthy! Buxton has also disappointed in his full-time role as the designated hitter with a .220/.325/.445 line. The slugging percentage is there, but Buxton’s batting average and on-base percentage need improvement.
Assuming division rivals won’t aid the Twins mid-season, Washington Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario and/or a familiar face in Colorado Rockies first baseman CJ Cron could be plus deadline acquisitions to boost offensive production. Candelario, who is a switch hitter, has a .260/.332/.456 line through 56 games this season. Cron would be a perfect buy-low opportunity, especially after he comes off the IL (back). Cron has historically been a reliable power hitter, with 25 or more home runs in the past four 162-game seasons.
There is hope for internal potential and improvement for the offense as well. First baseman Alex Kirilloff has a line of .304/.439/.468 through 79 at-bats. Second baseman Jorge Polanco and third baseman Kyle Farmer recently came back from trips to the IL, and both have historically been consistent offensive performers. Royce Lewis can also provide significant pop when healthy. If Correa and Buxton heat up after slow starts, this offense might just be good enough to make the postseason.
To be fair, it’s too early to confidently predict who will win any division in the AL. Even if the Twins manage to make the playoffs and/or win the AL Central, the rest of the AL is extremely competitive. Every team from the AL East has a record above .500, and the AL West has three teams above .500. However, given that the Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004, the fanbase is searching for any hope and possibility that this year can be more successful than the last decade.
