The Rays Could, and Should Trade for Ohtani

Rays President Erik Neander | Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

ST. PETERSBURG, FL.-- The Tampa Bay Rays’ proprietary “Moneyball” experiment has reached new heights this season as they currently hold the second-best record in all of baseball (60-36). President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander has achieved this while keeping Tampa Bay’s payroll at the 4th-lowest in the league. After starting the season 13-0, the Rays aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. Neander and the Rays have made a living through completing discrete, unheralded, and at times, shrewd moves based on the findings of their analytics department. One of the most impactful being last year's deadline acquisition of Outfielder Jose Siri from the Houston Astros, who just hit his 18th Home Run this past weekend and has played some Gold Glove-caliber defense (86th percentile in OOA). With Wander Franco’s franchise record 11-Year/$188M deal not truly kicking in until after 2024, Tampa Bay has every reason in the world to make just about any move they please. This is a unique trade season as there are multiple teams who had playoff hopes that have found themselves gearing up to sell, and the Rays have the organizational ammunition to sit at any negotiating table. 

This might be THE year for the Moneyball Rays. And if this is the case, then Shohei Ohtani makes all the sense in the world for Tampa’s pursuit of the Commissioner's Trophy.

First and foremost, Shohei Ohtani is a baseball god we are able to witness and breathe the same air as. His presence as a living and breathing baseball player makes the 24.99/month MLB.TV subscription almost worth it. He is less than 4 months away from hitting free agency, where he will likely blow Max Scherzer’s AAV record out of the water on his contract. That’s really bad news for financially constrained teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, who likely won’t even try to sign him to a deal this winter. The good news? Ohtani is only owed $10M for the rest of the season. That is the smallest number anybody will ever have the privilege of paying him from now until the end of his career. Making a move for Shohei Ohtani is 100% worth it regardless of the Rays philosophy around paying players. 

Even if they don’t win the World Series, three months of Shohei Ohtani in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform would almost force people to make the drive to Tropicana Field. Remember when Wayne Gretzky had his short stint with the St. Louis Blues? Me either, but the Blues Gretzky jersey is one of the most popular choices among Blues fans attending the Scottrade Center. Bringing in Shohei Ohtani for 3.5 months of his prime would have the same type of impact in Tampa Bay. For an organization in desperate need of a cultural reset among the fanbase, Shohei Ohtani represents the jumper cables for that to happen. 

Shohei is not going to be cheap, but the Rays can make just about any deal happen with their deep prospect pool. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Angels will require multiple Top-100 prospects to even sit at the negotiation table. The Angels can still conceivably compete next season with Mike Trout still being Mike Trout, and I’d imagine they will want MLB-ready talent as well. MLB’s #33 Prospect Curtis Mead is somebody that I believe the Angels would covet in discussions. Mead, a third baseman, represents a healthy alternative to Anthony Rendon who can develop and move around the Infield while they look for a way to get out from under the 3-Years/$114M remaining on his deal. #15 Prospect Junior Caminero is another guy that Angels GM Perry Minasian will ask for on a minimum basis. On paper, the Rays should have no problem moving Caminero in a deal for Ohtani as he was essentially acquired for free last season. They also have the Major League depth to try and get cute between the margins. If paying the best baseball player to ever live ten million dollars gives Neander and the Rays that much heartburn, they could include their second highest-paid player,  Manuel Margot, in a deal in order to offset the costs.

This is an extremely unique situation for the Tampa Bay Rays as they have an opportunity to be an actual player at the Trade Deadline. They are a legitimate World Series contender and have virtually no excuse to get beat at the negotiation table for Ohtani. The New York Yankees will be heavily involved in these trade talks, but their farm system does not hold a candle to Tampa Bay’s. The window is open, now is the time to make a splash.