The Cy Young Case For Félix Bautista
Photo courtesy of Julio Cortez | AP
The best closer in baseball has a chance to achieve a feat that hasn’t happened since the 2003 MLB season: winning the Cy Young Award as a reliever.
Within a wide open AL Cy Young race, Baltimore Orioles closer Félix Bautista has been having an incredible season at the back-end of the Baltimore bullpen, and his dominant numbers certainly warrant consideration for the prestigious award.
The last reliever to win the award was Dodgers closer Éric Gagné, who won the award after going 55 for 55 in save opportunities and striking out 137 batters in only 77 appearances.
Photo courtesy of the Cy Young Festival Committee
While primarily an award for starting pitchers, some relief pitchers have placed high in the final voting ballots, with the most recent being fellow Oriole Zack Britton, whose dominant 2016 campaign earned him a fourth place finish in the Cy Young voting for that season.
With the lack of a runaway favorite, a slew of injuries to starters, and a historic season, the odds may play into Bautista’s favor.
Here is a more in-depth look at the case and circumstances of how Bautista could pull off this near-impossible feat.
The Competition
The circumstances surrounding Gagné’s Cy Young campaign played into his favor. With voter bias placing a higher emphasis on starting pitching, the competition had to consistently be a toss-up, with no standout performers that would take the spotlight away from the closer. In the National League that year, this exact scenario is what played out.
The 2003 NL Cy Young ballot had only four names receive votes: Gagné, Giants starter Jason Schmidt, Cubs starter Mark Prior, and Braves starter Russ Ortiz, all of whom had good seasons, but nothing truly extraordinary in comparison to Gagné’s numbers.
With his incredible numbers, dominant season, toss-up in the race, and lack of a standout starting pitcher, the Canadian closer was the surefire choice for the voters. He would win the award with a 91% share of the votes.
Bautista finds himself in the same situation.
The AL Cy Young race appeared to be lost after Rays starter Shane McClanahan logged his eleventh win against the Padres on June 16, bringing his record to 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA.
Photo courtesy of Al Bello | Getty Images
Since that point, McClanahan has faltered, giving up 21 runs in 25.2 innings of work over six starts, raising his ERA to 3.29 in August. To make matters worse, McClanahan was transferred to the 15-Day IL for forearm discomfort, halting his season.
Injuries have also sidelined Texas Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi for multiple weeks following a right arm strain, hurting his chances of taking home the hardware.
The other candidates in the race are Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, Astros ace Framber Valdez, and Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
The three starters each have similar numbers, with each having 100 strikeouts, a winning record, above average ERA, similar workloads of innings, and being the ace of a playoff contender.
Of these three, Cole likely has the advantage, posting a 10-2 record, American League leading 2.64 ERA and 143.1 innings of work with 157 strikeouts.
Valdez currently has a 9-7 record, 3.07 ERA, a no hitter, and 141 strikeouts in 135 innings of work. Gausman has a 8-6 record, 3.20 ERA, American League leading 177 strikeouts in 132 innings of work.
However, the similarity of the numbers between Cole, Valdez, and Gausman has resulted in the lack of a breakthrough favorite for the award, causing a toss-up in the race, and forcing voters to consider all possible pitchers in the American League, not limiting the candidates to a select few.
With the lack of a clear-cut favorite and a wide-open race, Bautista will certainly warrant consideration from the voters, especially with the dominant numbers he has put up this season.
The Numbers
Bautista has been having a historic season at the back end of Baltimore’s bullpen.
Despite being on the best team in the American League at the moment, Bautista has the second highest WAR on the team, with 3.2, only behind rookie third baseman Gunnar Henderson.
Bautista’s 3.2 WAR places him in front of Oriole All-Star position players Austin Hays and Adley Rutschman, a remarkable feat for a ninth inning specialist.
Graphic courtesy of MLB.com
He currently sports a 6-1 record, 0.85 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 30 saves in 35 opportunities and 102 strikeouts in only 52.2 innings of work. He leads the American League in saves, and has more strikeouts than some qualified starting pitchers in the league.
Bautista’s biggest advantage in the voting is his absurd strikeout rate. The closer strikes out more than half of the batters he faces, with a K% of 50.2, the highest in the MLB.
His deadly pitch mix of a blistering 100 MPH fastball and high 90s splitter allows him to strike out hitters at a rapid rate, and also has earned him an average K/9 rate of 17.4.
The advanced analytics play into Bautista’s favor as well. He ranks in the 100th percentile for expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging, strikeout rate, and whiff percentage.
His blistering pitch mix makes him near-impossible to hit and the expected statistics show that when batters are able to make contact, they essentially make weak and unfavorable contact. The expected batting average for contact made on Bautista’s splitter is .083, and .161 on his four-seam fastball.
Despite being virtually unhittable in the ninth inning, the only knock on Bautista’s resumé is his blown saves and save percentage.
Bautista has a save percentage of 86%, as he has blown five of his opportunities on the year, all in the first-half of the season.
Despite these missed opportunities, his dominant numbers are too strong to overlook, as a closer who strikes out more than 50% of the batters he faces, has a sub-one ERA, 100 strikeouts, is arguably the most valuable player on the best team in the AL and leads his respective league in saves should be considered for the Cy-Young award.
With the Cy Young award mainly being a starting pitcher award, it is highly unlikely that Bautista will take home the hardware.
But, nothing is impossible.
Photo courtesy of Kathy Spies | Pinterest
With 50 games to go in the season, the other candidates could falter and Bautista’s numbers could improve as the year goes on.
The unpredictability of baseball makes it an exciting sport, and one that fans have to pay attention to until the very last pitch.
With the wide open race in the AL, we could potentially see Bautista make history by the end of the year.
