It's Time for the Red Sox to Sell
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When the month of July began, the Boston Red Sox had a 77.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. That percentage was fourth best in the American League (AL) and fueled by their 43-34 record, which placed them behind the Toronto Blue Jays for second place in the division. However, that percentage was going to be challenged in the weeks ahead.
Boston opened July with 17 straight games against divisional opponents, with 14 games against the first-place New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays. And while Tampa sat fourth in the division at the time, they still sported a winning record and sat 2.5 games behind Boston. The task ahead of Boston was arduous, the demand high. Even more so, given Boston had lost every divisional series they’d played thus far. Yet by the end of these 17 games, Boston had hope that if they weathered the storm, reinforcements would be on the way.
Pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Whitlock would return to the club before the All-Star Break and fill a spot in the rotation and the bullpen. Then, chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom would patch the remaining holes at the trade deadline…if the Red Sox could endure the storm.
They couldn’t.
The Red Sox have lost every series they’ve played thus far in July, embarked on two separate four-game losing streaks, and have a 5-12 record this month. Against New York and Tampa Bay, Boston finished 4-10 and has fallen to fourth place in the AL East. Tampa Bay has overtaken Boston in the standings, and due to a surging squad down in Baltimore, Boston is closer to last place in the AL East than they are in third place, the spot they held when the sordid month began.
Complicating matters more is how the month will end. The Red Sox are about to play 10 straight home games. The hitch? Their next three opponents - the Blue Jays, Guardians, and Brewers - have winning records. To make matters worse, Boston’s ace Chris Sale underwent surgery after taking a line drive to his throwing hand. The surgery will sideline Sale for at least a month, if not the rest of the season. To say everything that could go wrong has gone wrong would be an understatement.
Hence, why Boston needs to become a seller at the trade deadline.
On the surface, the idea seems reactionary. After all, Boston seemed a shoo-in for the playoffs three weeks ago. But this belief leans not just on what immediately awaits Boston after the All-Star Break but what awaits them from August to season’s ends.
From August to October 5, there are 19 more series on Boston’s schedule. 11 of those 19 will be against teams within the AL East. So far, Boston is 12-26 against teams within their division and has yet to win a series against their divisional opponents. For perspective, the only teams with a worse record against divisional opponents are the Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds, and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Each of those teams is last in their respective divisions and is barreling towards a top ten pick in next year’s draft.
While Boston is far from the same position, the signs are clear: For Boston to make the postseason, they’ll have to overcome their biggest demon. And while Bloom cannot publicly proclaim his team dead in the water, he has to reckon with the team’s future. Yet even if Boston can begin to turn the tide before the trade deadline, the other quandary is just how many holes the team has to plug.
Their most glaring hole comes in the bullpen. Though Boston’s relievers have the 18th-best ERA in baseball, their 20 blown saves are second-worst. The team has blown more saves than they have completed. Bloom would have to find two or three relievers to feel comfortable with a retooled bullpen. But doing so asks him to give up pieces for players that are rentals at worst and stopgaps at best. They would be soldiers added into a losing war.
Boston also requires a first baseman, a starting pitcher - something true before Sale’s injury - and a third outfielder that can offer more than Jackie Bradley Jr. It’s simply too much to change for a team that wouldn’t make the playoffs if it started today. The only team that underwent a similar trade deadline transformation is the 2019 Washington Nationals. But Washington was 57-51 with a plus-47 run differential when they remade themselves. Boston is 48-45 with a plus-18 run differential.
The bottom line is this: As currently constructed, Boston is not a contender. Their offense is too streaky, their pitching too erratic. For Bloom to make Boston a contender in the coming weeks, it would cost far more pieces than it’s worth. It’s a sunk cost to add when the team could acquire future assets at the deadline. Ones that could bolster their current farm system and then trade elsewhere to mend the gaps of next year’s team.
It’s a hard decision and would pain fans to see players like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi in different uniforms. But it's necessary to avoid future futile seasons in Fenway.
