St. Louis Cardinals at the Crossroads: Buy or Sell at the Trade Deadline?
Photo by Katie Woo/New York Times
As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in an unexpected position facing a critical decision: to buy or sell. After being sellers last year, the Cardinals entered the season with low hopes for a potential playoff run. Despite this, they have clawed their way to the second National League Wild Card spot, complicating the decision for the team’s front office. Here's a quick look at the dilemma they face.
The Case for Buying
The Cardinals’ resurgence this season has been certainly surprising. They started the season hovering just under .500 through April, going 14-16 during this stretch. Then around mid-May the Cards went on an absolute scorcher winning five straight series, including two sweeps, against all competitive teams (Angels, Red Sox, Orioles, Cubs, and Reds). They’ve cooled off since the start of June however they still find themselves competing for a playoff spot and with the deadline approaching, management has had some tough questions to answer. At the annual bloggers and podcasters event last weekend, John Mozeliak, the Cardinals' president of baseball operations, made it clear that the team intends to be buyers at the deadline. So, let’s examine some of their roster needs and potential options.
A critical area of concern for the Cardinals is their starting rotation. While Sonny Gray has been dependable, the rotation lacks depth and consistency. Adding another reliable starter could make a significant difference. Two potential targets stand out.
Luis Severino - The once-promising Yankees ace has bounced back this season, recording a 3.12 ERA and a 3.91 FIP. While he may no longer be a frontline starter, Severino could effectively fill the role of a fifth starter. Given his status as a rental on a one-year deal and the Mets being likely to sell, Severino should not command a demanding trade package.
Nick Pivetta - Although the Red Sox have a better record than the Cardinals, the more competitive American League Wild Card race might push them into selling. Pivetta, a free agent after this season, has been consistent with a 3.88 ERA through his first nine starts. His 10.7 K/9 rate would provide a much-needed boost to the Cardinals' rotation. Furthermore, Pivetta's ability to pitch deep into games would help preserve a tired bullpen.
The Case for Selling
Despite their current standing, the Cardinals have glaring weaknesses that could undermine a playoff push.
While the pitching has been serviceable, the offense has been inconsistent. They’ve dropped unacceptable series to teams such as the White Sox and Marlins, highlighting their struggle to maintain momentum. The division’s injuries have given them a temporary edge, but relying on that isn’t a viable long-term strategy.
The Cardinals’ roster also suffers from being built around aging stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. While both have been productive, their best years are behind them. Additionally, the farm system is weak, limiting the team’s ability to sustain success or make impactful trades.
Selling now could bolster the farm system and provide assets for a more sustained run in the future. Trading players like Goldschmidt or Arenado, while controversial, could fetch high returns that would address the farm system's deficiencies and set the Cardinals up for long-term success.