What does an extension look like for Jacob deGrom?

Sep 2

After 391 days, the four-time All-Star is returning to the New York Mets this week. While the club has survived to a 64-37 record without him and the fifth best earned-run-average (ERA) in the majors, deGrom's return couldn't come at a better time.

The Mets have seen their 10.5-game lead in the National League (NL) East shrink to three games over the last two months. With 12 more games against the Atlanta Braves and seven against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets will need deGrom if they're going to win their division for the first time since 2015.

The focus for the rest of this week and those preceding it is, "How does deGrom look?" But given his repeated declarations to exercise the opt-out in his contract and become a free agent this offseason, the better question is, "What does deGrom's next contract look like?"

On the surface, the answer is, "Whatever he wants." Before being injured last season, deGrom was on a historic pace. His 1.08 ERA in 15 starts led Major League Baseball at the time. Had it hovered around that area through the rest of the season, it would've bested if not rivaled Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA during the 1968 season. A mark which is the best in the modern era.

Compound deGrom's success with Mets owner Steve Cohen's willingness to spend whatever it takes, and the simple answer is the Mets will match any number deGrom, or his agents ask.

Yet, things are not that simple. Not after elbow inflammation and a stress fracture sidelined the 34-year-old ace until recently. Given his age and injury history, there's how much Cohen can spend and how much he's willing to. Likewise, if the two are to renew their vows, they'll need to find a deal that works for both sides.

Which brings us back to the central question, "What type of contract can one of the game's greatest pitchers receive when his future is murkier than a storm cloud?"

The best place to start is the contract deGrom is leaving behind. For the past two seasons, deGrom has had a $33.5 million base salary. By opting out this offseason, deGrom will leave $30.5 and $32.5 million on the table in the next two seasons. And yet his almost unparalleled success when healthy means deGrom is presumably expecting a raise.

This expectation is partly due to his age. The right-hander is already 34 and will turn 35 next June. With such an unclear future, this offseason is his last chance to capitalize on his success financially. deGrom's next deal likely will be the final contract he'll ever receive as a professional athlete. So ensuring generational wealth is presumably a priority for deGrom and his family.

He'll also likely demand a raise because he's one of the greatest pitchers of the last decade. He's won two Cy Young awards and received votes for the award in six of the eight seasons he's played. One of the two exceptions is 2014. The year deGrom won NL Rookie of the Year.

To determine what this raise may look like requires a glance at his contemporaries. Currently, only two pitchers have a higher salary than deGrom - teammate Max Scherzer and crosstown rival Gerrit Cole.

Scherzer will make $43.3 million, and Cole $36 million. It's likely that deGrom lands between the two salaries or likely surpasses them. Given the previously stated issues surrounding deGrom, he may land in the former category rather than the latter, somewhere in the $39 million range.

What's of greater debate is not the salary of deGrom's next deal but the length of it. While Scherzer and Cole represent the benchmarks in salary, the duration of their respective contracts couldn't be further apart. Where Scherzer signed a three-year deal, Cole is committed to a nine-year deal that will keep him a Yankee until he's 38.

Being younger than Scherzer when he signed means deGrom can and will not settle for such a short contract. Yet being older than Cole and riddled with far more question marks means deGrom cannot rival the length of his deal. If he did, his next club would have him under contract until he's 43.

With all that information, it would make sense for deGrom to settle in the middle of the two again. However, that may not be possible given deGrom's desire to max out the salary and term of his next contract and his ambition. Last year, the ace admitted to ESPN's Jeff Passan that he wants to pitch into his 40s.

"I believe I can still compete at this level at that age," deGrom said. "To become an inner-circle Hall of Famer, I'm gonna have to play that long."

To play that long would require an extension of at least five or perhaps six years. Something that would guarantee the financial safety net if the second half of his career ends similarly to the end of the first half while providing him the opportunity to achieve his ambitions.

This notion is somewhat unheard of, but negotiating a contract of that length is not for deGrom's representatives, VC Sports Group. The agency has secured pitchers Robbie Ray and Madison Bumgarner five-year deals. They also already have experience with massive contracts, helping sign Mookie Betts to a 12-year extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In other words, it's reasonable to think deGrom and his representatives ask for a six-year deal with an annual average salary of roughly $39 million. More holistically, deGrom could seek a six-year, $234 million extension. An asking price that could test the strength of the marriage between the Mets and one of the greatest players to wear their colors.

deGrom will take his first steps towards earning that asking price this Tuesday night against the Washington Nationals.