The Future and Ascension of Francisco Álvarez
Credit: Gordon Donovan
Francisco Álvarez is one step closer to the show.
This past weekend, The New York Mets promoted their top prospect from Double-A Binghamton to Triple-A Syracuse. The move comes after Álvarez posted a .277 average, .368 on-base percentage (OBP), .553 slugging percentage, and .922 on-base plus slugging (OPS) - which was sixth-best in the Eastern League - in 67 games. And while it took Álvarez those 67 games to ascend from Double-A to Triple-A, his path to the majors could be accelerated. However, the 20-year-old would likely not play his primary position should he make it to the big leagues.
The Mets already have a capable pair of catchers in James McCann and Tomas Nido. And while the duo is far from offensive powerhouses like Álvarez, both are strong defenders with an established rapport with members of the pitching rotation. While the duo is far from offensive powerhouses like Álvarez, both are strong defenders with an established rapport with members of the pitching rotation. The logjam at catcher seemingly leaves only one position available for Álvarez: Designated hitter (DH).
The DH position is one of the least productive in the Mets lineup. Through 80 games, Mets DHs have posted a .223/.303/.369 slash line with a subpar .672 OPS. The only positions on the Mets with worse numbers are third base and catcher. Placing Álvarez at DH is something the club is considering, as reports have already surfaced that the organization believes Álvarez might be their best internal option at the DH position down the stretch of the season, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.
Álvarez has been an offensive powerhouse since arriving in the United States. In 207 minor league games, the catcher has a .282/.385/.546 slash line, 44 doubles, 49 home runs, 143 runs batted in, and a 150 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Given that 100 represents an average wRC+, we can say Álvarez has been 50 percent above league average wherever he’s played these last three seasons despite consistently being younger than his competition. But while all of this is good and well, the only complication is the Mets do not know if Álvarez can replicate his success against Triple-A pitching. If he can’t prove he can immediately, there is no reason for the club to rush his development and promote him to the major leagues, creating another complication for the Mets.
If Álvarez doesn't receive a chance to be the team’s DH soon, the club will have to seek external options during the July 31 trade deadline. Do they promote Álvarez to the big leagues as their DH and then have little time to trade for another player capable of the position? Or do they acquire a hitter and then take a wait-and-see approach with Álvarez? In other words, do the Mets have time to find out if Álvarez is the answer, or do they trade for someone else, then sit him if Álvarez proves worthy?
To make matters worse, it’s not just time that’s working against the Mets. In June, their 10.5 game lead in the National League East shrunk to a 3.5 game lead thanks to the surging Atlanta Braves. With time ticking and their competition conspiring against them, the Mets will have to make a decision soon. But these are good problems for a first-place team with a phenom on their hands.
