The MLB season is nearly halfway over and the AL East has been the most competitive division in the majors. Not only have the Tampa Bay Rays been worthy World Series favorites for most of the season, but as of last Wednesday, 538 gave the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, and Baltimore Orioles each at least a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Of these four teams, which is most likely to make a deep postseason run?

The Boston Red Sox

Of course, the AL East — like every other division in baseball — actually has five teams. The only problem is that the fifth squad in the AL East is the streaky, inconsistent, fundamentally unsound Boston Red Sox. While they have had their moments — a series sweep of their hated Yankees chief among them — a lack of depth in their infield and pitching staff precludes anything but a record hovering around .500 by season’s end.

The Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays are in a similar boat as the Sox in that they have a lineup that can just barely outscore their pitching staff: Toronto has a team earned run average (ERA) of 4.04 and score 4.43 runs per game. However, a lack of competition in the American League outside of the AL West may very well see the squad from the Great White North sneak in as the rare fourth team from the same division to make the playoffs in the same year.

The Baltimore Orioles

Outside of the monstrous Texas Rangers and aforementioned Rays, the Orioles have the second best run differential in the American League. They’ve gotten this far thanks to the strength of the seventh-youngest lineup in the majors and been buoyed by two of the most elite non-starting pitchers in the league: closer Felix Baustista and reliever Yennier Cano. The two high-leverage stars have combined for just eight earned runs in 72 total innings while racking up 103 strikeouts to just 23 walks. Add that to a four-man rotation that doesn’t really have any glaring weak points, and it’s easy to see why they’re a trendy pick to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

The New York Yankees

However, it’s with the Yankees that the short list of true AL East contenders begins. Their early season struggles may have indicated otherwise, and recent performances may not instill much confidence either, but there’s a lot to like about this team. Even if star slugger Aaron Judge ultimately fails to return to the Yankees’ shockingly average lineup before season’s end, one of the deepest pitching staffs in the majors will be able to grind out the kind of close wins that championship runs are made of. Both the organization and fanbase have been foaming at the mouth for a postseason success, and this year might just be theirs.

The Tampa Bay Rays

And finally, it’s time to give the Rays their due. The painfully small market and fanbase of Tampa Bay have led to a dearth of media coverage of their elite team, but the players don’t seem to mind. They cooled off after their historic win streak to start the season off, but were recently the first team in the majors to 50 wins, and it’s not hard to see why. They have one of the deepest rosters in baseball in terms of both their lineup and pitching staff; star power and consistent production from the lesser-known players on the team have combined for a winning machine that can beat teams in any number of ways. Expect to pay a lot more attention to this team as the postseason approaches.