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NL Wildcard Preview: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Photo by Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports

With the Philadelphia Phillies clinching a postseason berth last week against the Pirates, they have now cliched back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010-2011. Red October made its triumphant return last season, and the city of Philadelphia did not disappoint. Philadelphia now believed in their baseball team for the first time in a while, allowing the energy and excitement to shine both at the ballpark and in public as well. Even with this renewed belief and confidence, this season wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows.

The Phillies were a season-worst 25-32 after losing to the Nationals on June 2nd. Since then, they are 65-40 and now will host the #5 seed Miami Marlins at Citizen Bank Park for a best-of-three series. The Miami Marlins also had a rollercoaster season but were able to clinch their playoff berth over the weekend with a record of 85-77.

Now with the playoffs starting this week, we’ll look at the pitching matchups for games one and two. Game one will have Jesús Luzardo on the mound for the Marlins and Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies. Jesús Luzardo has an earned run average (ERA) of 3.63 this year but in his last three starts he’s been much better, with an ERA of 2.61 allowing zero, three, and one run in his last three. It's important to note in Luzardo’s three postseason appearances he hasn't been great going 10 2/3 innings with a 5.91 ERA. With both these teams in the same division the starters have pitched against the opposing team this season. In his first start against the Phillies this year Luzardo went six innings and gave up eight hits and three runs. In his second start against the Phillies, Luzardo went 6 1/3 innings, allowed four hits, two earned runs, and picked up nine strikeouts. So, in both starts he's gone relatively deep into games and limited the damage giving up two and three runs respectively. Lastly, with Luzardo being a left-handed pitcher, the Phillies right-handed bats will need to step up as Luzardo is very good against left-handed hitters.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler is going for the Phillies who has a 3.61 ERA this season. Wheeler who was better his last three starts gave up 1, 3, and 1 earned run. Wheeler who faced the Marlins three times during the regular season pitched quite well. In his first matchup against them, he went six innings, gave up three hits, one run, and struck out six. In his second start against Miami this year he pitched six innings, allowed seven hits, three runs, and collected seven strikeouts. Then in his third start against the Marlins, Wheeler went six innings, gave up five hits and two runs, and picked up four strikeouts. When it comes to the postseason Wheeler has the edge with a 2.78 ERA. Both teams have solid offenses, but pitching will be more of a determining factor in who wins this game. It’s likely this is a lower-scoring game that the Phillies pull out late due to clutch hitting as they have the third most come-from-behind wins this season.

Todd Zolecki/MLB.com

Next, for game two on Wednesday the starting pitchers are Braxton Garrett for the Marlins and Aaron Nola for the Phillies. Braxton Garrett has an ERA of 3.66 this season but has been much improved in his last five starts. In his last five, he has given up one, one, zero, zero, and 4 runs. When it comes to head-to-head pitching matchups Garrett faced the Phillies twice. The first time around he went five innings, gave up six hits, three runs, and struck out three. In the second matchup, he went five innings, gave up six hits, three runs, two walks, and picked up five strikeouts. Also, important to note this will be Garrett’s first postseason appearance.

Now for the Phillies, they have Aaron Nola who has a season ERA of 4.46 but has looked much better in his last two outings. He went six innings, gave up six hits, two runs, and collected eight strikeouts. Then in his last outing, he went 6 2/3 innings, allowed four hits, gave up one run, and struck out eight again. Aaron Nola just like Braxton Garrett faced his playoff matchup during the regular season. Nola faced the Marlins three times during the regular season, in his first appearance he went 5 2/3 innings, gave up nine hits, four runs, and struck out six. The second time around he went six innings, allowed eight hits, five runs (four earned runs), and amassed six strikeouts. Finally, in his last start against the Marlins, Nola went 4 1/3 innings, allowing seven hits and four runs, and picked up six strikeouts. So, in a season that Nola struggled mightily, it’s not a surprise in his three starts against the Marlins that he struggled. With both teams having regular season success against their opposition’s pitchers, it could result in this game being high-scoring. The biggest x-factor in this game is which Aaron Nola are the Phillies going to get. If they get the Nola that pitched the last two starts it would be a huge boost to the starting rotation and will give the Phillies a good chance to win. If Nola regresses to the form he has been most of the year, the Phillies will need to put up a ton of runs to win the game. This is possible as they have had one of the best offenses in the league since August 1st. The challenge arises going against an in-form Braxton Garrett who has given up 1 run or less in four out of his last five starts. Nevertheless, with the Phillies already seeing him twice this year they shouldn’t see any surprises going into this game.

Finally, if game three is necessary it will be played Thursday, the starting pitchers for that matchup are to be decided. For the Marlins it’s likely Eury Pérez will start if he is healthy as he’s currently on the injured list (IL). If he’s not back in time I expect the Marlins to start Edward Cabrera. Then for the Phillies expect Ranger Suárez to get the game three start if the game is needed. Suárez was the Phillies’ number-three starter last postseason and is most likely to get the start after a decent regular season. This series does have the potential to go to game three as Nola is a major question mark for the Phillies.

This series has the potential to be one of the better matchups of the Wild Card round. Playing a division opponent against familiar pitching should add to an already tense, pressure-filled series and make for an exciting NL Wild Card matchup.